Welcome back to another edition of NHL Predictions, as the club formerly known as the Broad Street Bullies, the Philadelphia Flyers, travel to Ottawa, Ontario and do battle with Claude Giroux and the Ottawa Senators. Find out who we like to prevail in this one.
NHL Predictions for the Senators and Flyers
2024-25 Regular Season Series: Senators won 2 – 0 – 1
Time: 7:00 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time (EDT)
How to Watch TV: TSN5, RDS, NBCSP
Location: Canadian Tire Centre in Ottawa, Ontario
Ottawa could use a victory in this one. Unfortunately for them, the Flyers have had a decent start to the season at 3-2-1. The matchup marks the first of three meetings in 2025-26.
What’s Up with the Senators
The Sens expect to make this year’s Stanley Cup playoffs, there’s no denying that fact. With the a 2-4-1 start, and very suspect play defensively, they need to pull up their collective socks.
The Sens are a curious bunch in some respects. Jordan Spence has four points in four games, but was scratched in the other three games. You really get the sense it is a game-by-game decision, to decide if they want a more physical lineup against certain teams. Nikolas Matinpalo becomes the swap-out for Spence under those circumstances.
If we go with the lines from yesterday, Olle Lycksell, Matinpalo, and Linus Ullmark expect to play. Therefore, Kurtis MacDermid and Jordan Spence find themselves on the sidelines.
Ottawa wants to go with four flowing lines. They are hopeful Ridly Greig on the third line can get the offence going, that will really round out the team’s attack.
As a note, we will add make sure to check the very latest lineup news before locking in your fantasy starters.
How About Philly’s Story
Philly is also a team with a balanced lineup, that should make for a good meeting Thursday night versus Ottawa. Matvei Michkov has been a storyline thus far in 2025-26. He’s down at 15:05 of ice time. For a guy who scored 63 points in 80 games as a rookie, his play is down to start the season. Under head coach Rick Tocchet’s commitment to a full 200-foot game, Michkov is clearly being challenged early on. Tocchet has no problem encouraging offence, as he was known for some scoring touch, back in the day. However, you better bring a complete effort, or you might find yourself riding pine.
Overall, the Flyers are playing well to start the season. A lot of their players are buying into the system. Plus, they have a lot of talent, and may be an example of an underrated Eastern Conference team. Sean Couturier leads them with two goals and five assists through six games. Look for them to give Ottawa all they can handle in tonight’s matchup.
NHL Predictions
When it comes down to it, despite the differential in records, Ottawa has some favourable stats. Their power play is eighth at 26.1%, while Philly’s is 25th at 15.8%. However, Ottawa is a poultry 57.7% on the penalty kill, and Philly is tenth at 83.8%. The 83.1% versus 99.1% combined for the stats, gives the Flyers a distinct specialty team advantage. The Sens leads the league in team faceoff percentage with 61.2%, and the Flyers are good, too. They are 52.3%, good for ninth in the NHL. The teams are tied in goals-for-per-game at 3.00, but goals-against, again the Senators lag behind. They are 31st at 4.71, and Philadelphia is above average at 2.67, 11th in the NHL.
The last couple stats we will add on, are expected goals percentage and actual goal percentage at 5v5. Ottawa is fifth at 54.6% in expected goal percentage. Unforutnately, their actual goal percentage of 41.4% has them 29th. Not good enough. The Flyers are 11th in actual goals (55%), which has them very efficient because their expected goal percentage is only 50.4% (14th).
Putting it all together, it seems difficult to imagine Ottawa outpacing Philly. However, they have a young and talented lineup that doesn’t want to be outdone by. Plus, they are at home, and really need a win, they’ll be playing desperate.
Prediction: Ottawa win 4 – 2 in regulation.
Prop Bets
If you want an anytime scorer for the Flyers, take Owen Tippett. He has five goals, 19 shots on goal, and comes into this one will goals in his last three games. For the Sens, look for former Flyer Claude Giroux to score one. He’s not known for much goal scoring, but has nine shots in seven games and will get up for a game against a team he spent 15 years of his NHL career with previously.
Main Photo Credit: Marc DesRosiers-Imagn Images
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