Welcome back to another NHL Predictions. Each day, our writers here at Last Word On Hockey look at the games and give in-depth analysis. Our team breaks down the key matchups, storylines, and stats, then makes predictions based on how they might play out. For this edition, we will look at the Tampa Bay Lightning taking on the Dallas Stars. Don’t forget to check out more NHL Predictions, as our writers continue this series throughout the 2025-26 season.
Time: 7:00 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time (EDT)
TV: TNT; truTV; HBO MAX
Location: Benchmark International Arena in Tampa, Florida
2024–25 Season Series: tied 1-1
Tampa Bay Lightning Outlook
The Bolts (4-4-2) host Dallas (6-3-1), looking to show they’re still the offence-heavy powerhouse. After losing four straight, they are looking to reverse that tonight with their fourth straight victory. Zemgus Girgensons netted a pair and Nikita Kucherov tallied an empty netter (they all count in the stats sheet toward his next contract). Meanwhile, goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy posted a.900 save percentage on only 20 shots, so it’s clear that his defence is finally stepping up in front of him. Dallas may have cowboy boots, but Tampa brings lightning bolts.
NHL Predictions Key to Victory – Tampa Bay
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Simplify the breakout: Don’t give Wyatt Johnston and Mikko Rantanen odd-man rushes from sloppy exits.
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Let Kucherov think he’s leading a firing squad. He needs to shoot and not think about shooting.
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Don’t let the Stars’ speedsters take flight. Dallas will try to fly down the wings like they just booked a two-for-one rodeo ride.
Dallas Stars Outlook
Dallas won their third straight against the Capitals last night with a 1-0 shutout. Jake Oettinger made 24 saves for his first shutout of the season and Tyler Seguin tallied a power-play goal. The Stars will also seek a four game winning streak against the Bolts, so prepare for the ego-meter to be on full tilt as they mosey into Tampa. Even with Matt Duchene, Roope Hintz and Oskar Back listed as Day-To-Day, the Stars are fast, dangerous on transition and hungry to prove they can tame Tampa’s offence. They say everything’s bigger in Texas. Let’s hope the Stars’ hits are bigger when they take their rodeo on the road.
NHL Predictions to Victory – Dallas
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Mess up Tampa’s timing: Attack in the neutral zone and force turnovers.
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Thomas Harley is about defence, but his 7 assists keep Ws in the standing. Stay engaged and traffic in front of Vasilevskiy. He can’t stop what he can’t see. Legend has it.
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Win special teams: If the Stars can capitalize on power plays, they’ll tilt the ice. They are third in the league with a 31.4% Power Play advantage. Keep it that way.
Who Takes the W?
Tampa Bay has the edge: elite offence, proven consistency, and big game experience. Dallas has the legs and speed, but the Bolts are sharper overall.
Prediction: Stars 4, Tampa Bay 3 (OT)
Expect Tampa to strike early. Expect Dallas to push hard mid-game with a tight finish and a quick strike in OT.
Prop Bets of the Night
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Over 5.5 Total Goals (-115): Their meetings last season were 4-2 and 3-2 (SO)—goals are likely.
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Kucherov Anytime Goal (+105): He’s riding momentum and Tampa wants to set the tone.
Final Thoughts
NHL Predictions thinks tonight’s contest is one part offensive showcase, one part speed duel, and one part strategic chess match. Tampa wants to reaffirm dominance. Dallas wants to show they’re for real. For fans? Buckle up. The lightning might strike, but the rodeo might just kick off.
Main Photo Credit: Chris Jones-USA TODAY Sports
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