Welcome to another edition of NHL Predictions. Each day, our writers here at Last Word On Hockey break down the slate using matchup context, recent form, and underlying data analytics to project likely outcomes. This edition of NHL Predictions focuses on a Pacific Division matchup between the Anaheim Ducks and the Calgary Flames. Be sure to check out more NHL Predictions throughout the 2025–26 season.
NHL Predictions: Anaheim Ducks vs Calgary Flames
2025-26 Season Series: 0–0
Time: 8:00 p.m. Eastern Standard Time (EST); 5:00 p.m. PST
How to Watch – US TV: Victory+, KCOP-13, ESPN+ | Canada TV: SNE, SNO, SNW, SNP, SN+
Location: Scotiabank Saddledome in Calgary, Alberta
Setting the Stage
The Anaheim Ducks arrive in Calgary riding a six-game winning streak and sitting at 27–21–3, a sharp reversal after a ending a nine-game skid earlier this month. Importantly, this surge has been built on defensive commitment rather than unsustainable shooting or special-teams spikes. Anaheim has leaned into structure, limited high-danger looks, and trusted Lukas Dostal to stabilize games when pressure mounts.
Meanwhile, the Calgary Flames enter at 21–25–5 and continue to search for offensive traction. Calgary has scored just one goal in each of its past three games and has struggled to replace puck movement and transition efficiency following recent blue-line changes. The Flames remain competitive defensively, but the margin for error has narrowed considerably.
Anaheim Ducks Storyline
Anaheim’s identity has shifted decisively over the past two weeks. At five-on-five, the Ducks are prioritizing middle-ice protection and controlled exits rather than chasing possession metrics. While their shot share remains below average, the quality against has improved meaningfully, allowing Dostal to see pucks cleanly and avoid repeated east-west breakdowns.
Offensively, production continues to come by committee. Cutter Gauthier has emerged as the primary driver in transition, while Beckett Sennecke and Jackson LaCombe provide secondary scoring layers. Anaheim’s power play remains inconsistent, but recent discipline has reduced penalty-kill exposure, helping stabilize game flow. As long as the Ducks avoid extended defensive-zone shifts, they remain difficult to separate from on the scoreboard.
Empty net goal for Anaheim!Scored by Pavel Mintyukov with 01:12 remaining in the 3rd period.Assisted by Mikael Granlund and Drew Helleson.Seattle: 2Anaheim: 4#ANAvsSEA #SeaKraken #FlyTogether
— NHL Goals (@nhlgoals.bsky.social) 2026-01-24T05:43:58.289319Z
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Calgary Flames Storyline
Calgary’s challenge remains converting effort into offence. At five-on-five, the Flames generate reasonable shot volume but struggle to turn possession into sustained inner-slot pressure. Recent games have featured long stretches of perimeter play without meaningful rebound or net-front presence.
Defensively, Calgary remains sound. Rasmus Andersson’s departure has increased reliance on Kevin Bahl and MacKenzie Weegar to manage exits, and goaltending has been steady rather than spectacular. However, the lack of finishing has forced the Flames to play from behind too often, shrinking their tactical flexibility. Against a Ducks team comfortable grinding games down, Calgary must score first to dictate tempo.
Power play goal for Calgary!Scored by Morgan Frost with 13:51 remaining in the 1st period.Assisted by Connor Zary.Calgary: 1Washington: 0#WSHvsCGY #Flames #ALLCAPS
— NHL Goals (@nhlgoals.bsky.social) 2026-01-24T02:22:58.689628Z
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The Prediction Model
The blended model apply Monte Carlo simulations this matchup 10,000 times, using four evenly weighted inputs. The in-house model slightly favours Anaheim at 55 percent, reflecting their current form, defensive consistency, and goaltending edge. HockeyStats aligns closely, giving the Ducks a 56 percent win probability based on recent five-on-five suppression and goal prevention trends. MoneyPuck comes in more conservative, projecting Anaheim at 53.8 percent due to Calgary’s home-ice advantage and projected shot volume.
After blending all sources, Anaheim lands at 55.0 percent, with fair odds around −122. Calgary checks in at 45.0 percent, with fair odds near +122, placing the Ducks as modest but legitimate road favourites.
NHL Predictions
This game profiles as another controlled, low-scoring contest. Anaheim is comfortable letting opponents push play as long as structure remains intact, and Calgary has not shown the ability to consistently break down compact defensive setups. If the Ducks stay disciplined and avoid gifting transition chances, their patience should wear down a Flames team struggling to generate offence organically. Calgary will need an early breakthrough to shift the script. Otherwise, Anaheim’s ability to manage the neutral zone and lean on Dostal should keep the game within their preferred margins.
Prediction: Ducks win 3–2 (Model Probability: 55.0%)
2025–26 Season Prediction Record: 11-11
Prop Bets of the Night
On the Anaheim side, Jackson LaCombe over 0.5 points (+110) profiles well given how much of the Ducks’ offence now flows through his puck movement from the blueline. Anaheim’s recent success has relied on controlled exits and secondary activation, and LaCombe remains the primary distributor when plays extend beyond the first layer. Even in lower-scoring games, his minutes and touch volume provide point equity without requiring power-play dependence.
For Calgary, Nazem Kadri over 2.5 shots on goal (-115) is enticing, as he continues to generate attempts regardless of finishing variance. With the Flames searching for offence and often trailing in recent games, Kadri’s willingness to shoot off the rush and from the slot keeps his volume intact even when results lag. Against an Anaheim team comfortable conceding perimeter looks, this prop offers a stable floor without needing a breakout scoring night.
2025–26 Season Prop Bet Record: 25–22 (+6.63 units)
Lineup disclaimer: Projected lineups and starting goaltenders are based on available information at the time of writing. Please check official team sources prior to placing any wagers.
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Main Photo: Sergei Belski-Imagn Images