If one thing is clear about Rhys Hoskins’ trajectory with the Phillies it’s this: He’s not who he used to be. It may be a strange sentiment to make regarding a 28-year old first baseman, but it’s true. Hoskins is no longer the home run king du jour, as he was in his rookie year in 2017, nor is he the 116-walk, stereotype-defying 2-hole hitter that he was in 2019. And that’s ok.
In 2021, Hoskins proved that he is aging gracefully into the prototypical power-hitter role by hitting .247/.334/.530 with 27 home runs and 71 RBIs before succumbing to yet another season-ending injury in August. What seems to be happening, amidst all the missed time, the prolonged slumps, and the extended hot steaks, is that Hoskins is finding himself. He’s becoming the hitter that he’s meant to be – a boring yet productive slugger, capable of carrying the team for a few stretches over the course of the season. He’s not likely to ever hit .275 for the season, but his ability to get on base and drive in runs more than make up for it.
The question for the Phillies, however, becomes this: is the player that Hoskins is meant to be – a pure, middle of the order, power hitter – fit with the offensive role that they want him to fill?
On-Base Percentage
If Hoskins’ 2019 season – in which he led the N.L. in walks – was on one side of the on-base spectrum, then 2021 marked his arrival on the opposite end. While Hoskins still worked the count at an above average clip (4.24 pitches per PA), he traded in OBP for power, balls for strikes, and walks for home runs. From 2019-2021, his OBP has dropped 30 points (.364 -.334) and his walk rate has lessened as well (16.5% to 10.6%). Not coincidentally, over the same time period Hoskins has taken less strikes (33.2% – 28.3%), swung at more pitches, and taken less pitches in 3-0 counts (8.6% – 4.7%).
In turn, his slugging percentage (.530%) has only grown over the last 3 seasons (.454,.503,.530) and was 11th amongst qualified NL players in 2021. By taking less strikes, Hoskins hunted home runs instead of walks and turned in the best power performance since his rookie year – he was on pace to hit 40 home runs before injury ended his season in August.
This shift in approach hasn’t turned Hoskins into someone who swings freely with reckless abandon either. Instead, it has only made his plate discipline more akin to that of the average major leaguer – not someone who sacrifices hittable pitches for the chance to reach base safety. So while Hoskins is swinging at more pitches both in and on the edge of the strike zone, nothing about how he hits the ball has really changed from 2019-2021. Other than a slight uptick in fly ball and hard-hit ball percentages Hoskins’ strikeout percentage, average exit velocity, and where he hits the ball have all remained the same. The only difference is his aggressive approach.
Role in the Lineup
This is where things could get dicey. Why? Because if Hoskins’ progression from 2019-2021 tells us anything, it’s that the hitter he’s become, isn’t the type of hitter that the Phillies might necessarily want – or need him to be.
As shown in 2021, Hoskins is at his best when he is confident and aggressive at the plate. Along with being on track for some of the highest power numbers of his career, Hoskins also saw his Offensive Wins above Replacement jump from 2.0 in 2019 to 2.7 in 2021. His Runs Batting – the number of runs better or worse than average the player was as a hitter – also jumped from 11 to 19 as well as his adjusted batting runs (14.3 – 16.1). Moreover, Hoskins swung at the first pitch at a career high rate of 25.5% and put up his best numbers when he did (.278/.310/.611, 10 HRs, 19 RBIs).
While this approach was great for Hoskins, it didn’t exactly fit with his position in the batting order – 2nd. Unlike in years past where a more patient Hoskins thrived in the two-hole, this more aggressive version of him struggled, despite receiving the majority of his plate appearances (163) there.
Although Hoskins managed to put up some decent numbers while batting 2nd, they are only a result of the time that he spent there and not his overall productivity . Never one to hit for a high average, his newfound approach caused both his batting average (.209) and OBP (.258) to plummet from atop the order. His struggles in the two-hole contributed to the team’s inability to get their lead-off men on base – a .305 OBP from the 1-2 spots, 2nd lowest in MLB.
Conversely, Hoskins thrived when he hit 4th (89 PAs, .250/.348/.447, 4 HRs, 15 RBIs), or 5th (87 PAs, .318/.471/.712 5 HRs, 18 RBIs).in the lineup. Moreover, Hoskins struggled both in the 1st innings of games (.182/.270./.303) and when facing the starting pitcher for the first time (.216/.317/.375). It seems that in being more aggressive and seeing less strikes, Hoskins needed an at-bat to get a read on the opposing pitcher – a trait that doesn’t exactly lend itself to batting 2nd.
Although the Phillies have a massive hole at the 1-2 spots in the batting order, Hoskins should not be the one to fill it. Even if another “middle of the order” bat is added to the lineup by David Dombrowski, Hoskins’ status as the 4th-6th hitter must not sway. Someone better suited to the position, who is more fleet of foot, willing to take strikes, and hits for a higher average like J.T. Realmuto or even Bryce Harper, should take his place.
If Hoskins’ 2019 season was an aberration – a test to see just how much he could get on base – and 2020 was a stepping stone for him to build his confidence with proven hitters behind him, then 2021 was the year Hoskins proved himself to be a qualified cleanup hitter in the term’s purest sense. Asking Hoskins to revert back to his 2019 approach would not only be a waste of time, but of his potential. He was never meant to be a number two hitter, it was simply a placeholder for his development – he’s far too slow (-1 runs from base running), doesn’t hit for average, and strikes out too much. His infamous streakiness – which is expected for a traditional power hitter – has no place at the top of the lineup. His 71 RBIs in 2021, 20 more than the average MLB player with 443 PA’s, are wasted when most are driven in by himself.
The bottom line is that Hoskins gives you less value on the base paths than he does when digging into the batter’s box.
For the Phillies, the decision to keep Hoskins in the middle of the order should be simple. In 2021, they went 55-52 in games that Hoskins played. When Hoskins hit well, they won (.285/.361.681, 21 HRs, 58 RBIs). When he didn’t hit well, they lost (.203/.305/.357, 6 HRs, 13 RBIs). Hoskins will continue to walk and strike out at a near equal rate, regardless of the outcome – what changes is whether or not he hits and drives in runs. The Phillies, with winning being their best interest in mind, should put Hoskins in the best spot to succeed. That spot is not 2nd in the batting order.
19-19 was the Phillies’ record when Hoskins batted 2nd. They went 36-33 when he did not. There may be only a slim difference between the two records, sure, but so too is the gap between this team and October.
Featured Image: Yong Kim / Philadelphia Inquirer
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