Framber Valdez stands atop the pitching class and is arguably the offseason’s last marquee free agent. He and Zac Gallen are the two remaining players who declined qualifying offers. Those two pitchers and Eugenio Suárez are the three unsigned players who ranked among MLBTR’s Top 20 free agents entering the winter.
Suárez was always going to be capped to two or three years by his age. Gallen is coming off a down season and is a candidate for a pillow contract with an opt-out. On the other hand, Valdez came into the winter as arguably the best available pitcher. His age and middling second half performance — plus the bizarre cross up incident with catcher César Salazar that could lead to some questions from teams — meant he hit the market on a bit of a down note himself. Valdez is nevertheless coming off a 3.66 ERA showing with an above-average 23.3% strikeout rate and massive 58.6% grounder percentage across 192 innings. It’s his fourth straight full season and sixth year in a row with a sub-4.00 earned run average.
Valdez’s age (32) made a six-year deal a stretch. A five-year contract seemed more plausible, with a strong four-year pact appearing to be the floor. There hasn’t been much about Valdez’s market or whether his camp would target a shorter deal with opt-outs as Spring Training approaches. Valdez clearly hasn’t found a deal to his liking, yet he’s probably the last top-of-the-rotation starter who’ll change teams this offseason.
A Tarik Skubal trade has always felt like a long shot. Freddy Peralta, MacKenzie Gore, Edward Cabrera and Shane Baz are off the trade market. Dylan Cease landed with the Blue Jays on a seven-year deal within the first couple weeks of the offseason. The market didn’t value NPB righty Tatsuya Imai as a top-of-the-rotation arm. Valdez has higher upside than any of the other remaining starters in free agency (e.g. Gallen, Lucas Giolito, Chris Bassitt, Justin Verlander).
Valdez has most frequently been linked to the Orioles. They entered the offseason needing a top-end starter, and president of baseball operations Mike Elias has ties to the southpaw from his days in the Houston front office. The O’s acquired Baz in a trade to address the rotation and signed Pete Alonso to a five-year, $155MM free agent deal. There’s reportedly still room in the budget, but another $30MM+ annual salary for Valdez would cap a much bigger offseason than usual for the Orioles.
The Mets, Blue Jays and Red Sox are all known to have met with Valdez around the Winter Meetings. They’ve each added a different marquee pitcher (Peralta, Cease and Ranger Suárez, respectively). The Astros have never seemed inclined to bring Valdez back. The Giants also met with the two-time All-Star, but they’ve consistently downplayed their desire to sign anyone long term.
Where does that leave Valdez? Will Baltimore or San Francisco get aggressive, or does the long wait open up the opportunity for a mystery team?
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