A few of us writers were discussing the draft and Ethan popped the question (no, not that one, the titular one), which led to a discussion and this piece.
Ethan Witte
Where does Wood slot right now in their system…
Anthony Esbensen
Painter, Miller, Escobar, Abel, Wood, Tait, Crawford
Cormican
I’d flip Tait and Escobar, but otherwise, fair
Anthony Esbensen
I want to see the approach at upper levels (and if he sticks at catcher)
Cormican
Agreed, but the hitting for Escobar is also lower level and Tait is a more valuable position profile
Anthony Esbensen
That’s true
Escobar showed less questions about the hitting approach
Cormican
True, but Aroon is also right of age for the level and Tait is really young for it. It’s all up to how you balance those out.
I have no issue with your ranking, I just have a different view of how to prioritize those items
Anthony Esbensen
That’s a very good point about age
I’ll expand a little on my thoughts up there about the ranking. Painter, Miller and Tait are all Top 100 subjects on most prospect lists and are usually in the order (a few outlets have Crawford over Tait, but it’s enough I don’t feel that needs a lot of explanation). As for Abel, he’s now somewhat of a proven (if inconsistent) commodity and I feel he can reasonably be considered a mid-rotation option. I think Gage Wood is also likely a mid-rotation ceiling to maybe a number 2 Starter, but given he’s further away and has yet to throw a pro-pitch, so I rank him just a hair below. Gage could move quickly and by end of season, maybe he even ends up higher on this list, but with the data available, this is my current take.
Now, I’m going to jump out of order to the players I am (perhaps unreasonably) excited about. I’ve never ranked a pure Reliever top 10 before and I don’t think I’m quite ready to do it here, but I’m excited about Gabe Craig’s potential and his potential to move quickly. I suspect he’s more on an Orion Kerkering like timeline and not a rocket ship to the postseason in MLB this year, but that second option is a possibility and that’s pretty exciting. A lot of comments said he may have the best Slider in this draft a potential 70 grade swing and miss machine. Unlike most relievers he also has shown very good present control of his Fastball/Slider mix. Unlike Kerkering who throws a pretty bolt straight Fastball, Craig’s has late tailing life and should be a less risky pitch to play off the Slider than Orion’s Fastball sometimes is. It’s probably too early to talk lock down Closer, but I think that potential does exist. That potential sticks Craig just outside the top 10 for me. Using the BA prospect rankings as a reference, it would feel wrong to put him over Jean Cabrera at 13, but 14 feels fair.
Second Round Pick Cade Obermueller actually feels a little like a Lefty Seth Johnson, who’s ranked 10th, with some above average, potential plus stuff with control issues to iron out and secondaries to develop and a non-zero bullpen risk. So the 10-11 range where Johnson sits feels right (obviously pushing Craig down to more like 15). I won’t spend a ton of time on Bowker or Youngerman, both feel like a ranking in the 15-20 range would feel right.
Matthew Fisher, taken in Round 7 was floated as a possible late First Round pick and does show mid-rotation potential. There’s a long road here and lots of risk. Dante Nori is ranked 11th and Fisher has more impactful upside probably similar impact to Burkholder, with as much uncertainty. So probably 8th, though Chace’s ceiling is tempting when he returns from injury, so a case for 9th (or 10th, really with Wood being added above him) is also reasonable.
Of everyone else, I think Will Vierling could end up ranked in the 20’s. Ferrara might be a late teens to early 20’s rank, though the defensive profile might bump him to mid-teens for some. Cole Gilley might have enough interesting stuff to ranke in the upper 20’s to low 30’s. All the other likely signees are probably unranked until they perhaps prove otherwise .