What is the Andrew Painter plan?

How is this going to work, exactly?

I’m assuming the Phillies have a plan.

This week, MLB Pipeline released their updated Top 100 prospect rankings and coming in at No. 5 was Lehigh Valley Iron Pigs’ right-hander Andrew Painter. Following his first start at AAA a few days ago, Baseball America featured him as the No. 1 Statcast Standout of the Week.

With Painter set to make his next start Thursday for the Pigs, it doesn’t seem like it’s going to be long until the 21-year-old is ready for the big leagues.

Painter is the top pitching prospect in baseball, and the Phillies say they plan for him to go 5-6 innings or about 75 pitches, with the goal of getting him stretched out to 100 pitches in the next few weeks. Provided all goes as well as it has thus far, it appears Painter could be ready to join the big league rotation by June.

It makes some sense to fast track Painter. Even though he’s just 21, it’s clear he has the pure raw stuff and command to be effective at the big league level. Coming off Tommy John surgery, the Phillies certainly don’t want to burn too many innings in the minors, depriving themselves of a truly electric arm at the big league level, if they don’t have to. But if they bring him up now, will he be there for them late in September and, if they get that far, October?

Of course, the Phillies have a wonderful problem. Right now, their starting rotation is loaded.

Zack Wheeler, Jesus Luzardo, Christopher Sanchez, Aaron Nola and Ranger Suarez are all healthy and pitching effectively. All are established big league veterans. At the moment, they don’t have a need to add Painter to the starting rotation. So how is this all going to work exactly?

There appear to be four options.

Six Man Rotation

If the Phillies do want to get his arm up to the Majors quickly, going to a six-man rotation is the most immediate solution, although that presents one specific problem. Zack Wheeler likes pitching every fifth day and has resisted extra rest when given the opportunity.

In order for a six-man rotation with Painter to work, they would need to configure it in a way that allows Wheeler to stay on his regular turn, meaning there will be some weeks where a pitcher has perhaps two extra days off. In the long run, this may prove to be beneficial to the other starters, reducing their workload.

It might get a little tricky, scheduling-wise, but this is the path that makes the most sense and allows the Phils to hold onto their cadre of starters in case an injury occurs.

Ranger to the Bullpen

Suarez started his career in the ‘pen, as did Sanchez, but if anyone from the starting rotation moves to a relief role, Suarez is the most likely. He’s had great success in that role and would certainly strengthen a weakness.

That being said, it’s highly unlikely. Suarez’ value comes as a starter, and based on his last outing, he appears to be all the way back. Not only that, it’s hard to imagine Rob Thomson removing Suarez from the rotation in a contract year unless he absolutely had to, knowing if he made him a reliever it would drastically alter what he could earn on the free agent market this year.

You can scoff at that last point, if you like, but if part of the goal is to keep players happy and motivated, you’d be silly to think those kinds of things aren’t considerations.

Painter to the Bullpen

Making Painter a reliever would certainly solve the issues of right-handed relief the Phils have. He would immediately become a dominant one-inning force that could reshape the entire bullpen.

Here’s the problem. Painter’s a starter and, like most starters, takes a long time to warm up. You can’t ask a 21-year-old pitcher fresh of a Tommy John surgery to get ready the way a relief pitcher does. Relievers have to get hot, fast. Something like that could damage Painter’s surgically repaired elbow, especially considering they’re actively stretching him out.

There is absolutely no chance Painter is moved to the bullpen. None.

Trade

There are a number of teams starved for good starting pitching. Again, as a pending free agent, the Phillies will almost certainly listen to offers on Ranger Suarez at the trade deadline, especially if it returns a top-flight closer or outfielder that could improve the ‘pen or the lineup.

Even though it’s going to be a month or two before the Hot Stove kicks into gear and we see who the buyers and sellers are, you can rest assured teams like the Orioles, Cubs, and perhaps even Dodgers, are going to be sniffing around looking for starting pitching. I can’t imagine the Phils trading a starter within the National League, unless the return is something salivatingly good.

But this is a realistic scenario if Painter comes up and performs at a high level next month.