It’s not a balanced diet.
Many items have graced the McDonald’s menu over the years. Onion Nuggets. The Arch Deluxe. The McDLT, which used a styrofoam divider to keep the burger hot and the toppings cold, and which made a young Jason Alexander dance in the streets. But as the years pass and the limited-time items fall off the menu, it’s still the Big Mac and the Quarter Pounder being placed in most bags handed through the Drive-Thru window.
Nick Castellanos might be able to relate to that limited menu. See, for the past few seasons the hurlers have started cooking before he even puts in his order. And what they’ve served to him was even more monotonous than McNuggets. Breaking balls, low and away, over and over again. Serve hot, with choice of honey mustard or sweet and sour.
Every so often I like to check in on how pitchers are approaching Castellanos and on how he’s responding. Last year I did so through the lens of Sherlock Holmes. This season I’m going with the slightly less refined metaphor of McD’s. My descent into the lowbrow as a writer aside, what’s Casty getting with his side of fries? (All numbers are prior to Wednesday night’s game).
You know how sometimes you order a six-piece McNuggets and discover that, through some sort of quiet yet noble act of line cook generosity you’ve been given seven? Nick Castellanos’ season has been sort of like that. Not only is he getting a heaping helping of breaking balls, but he’s getting more than ever before. A full 44.9% of pitches sent his way have been breaking balls, eclipsing (though just barely) fastballs and their 44.2%. At 10.8%, offspeed pitches are firmly in “hey, there’s an onion ring in my fries!” territory. Those numbers, should they hold, would be a career high for the breaking balls and a career-low for the fastballs.
And where are those breaking burgers balls heading? You guessed it: to the low outside of the plate. So are the other pitches he sees. A full 30% of pitches Casty faces end up on the low outside quadrant of the plate, slightly higher than the 29% he saw in 2024 and 2023.
What’s he doing with those pitches? Here’s his swings in 2024…
And here’s 2025:
He’s still swinging at pitches on the lower outside corner at the same rate, though he’s now swinging at pitches at the upper outside corner a little more (but only 5% of his pitches come in that territory, so it could be small sample size).
Of course, it’s not just about swings, but about what happens with those swings. Here’s his Whiff rate by zone in 2024…
And 2025.
He’s still about as likely to swing and miss on low, outside pitches away but he’s cut his whiff rate on pitches on the lower outside corner by 10%. The bad news, though, is that he’s opened up an an additional hole on pitches high, outside, and away, with his whiff rate up by 15%.
How does this all translate into the battle against his old enemy, the slider? He’s currently posting a .220 batting average and a slugging percentage of .390 against it, vs. last year’s .219 and .351, respectively. So he’s not hitting the slider more often, but he is doing more damage when he does hit it. The other major change in his performance is against the four-seam fastball, where his batting average is up from .265 to .310, and his slugging percentage up from .408 to .494. That would probably explain why he’s not seeing quite so many of them.
On the whole, Castellanos does not look like a transformed hitter. He’s still quite prone to chasing and whiffing, and those low-away pitches are still a major problem. But his stats are a little up from last year— batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, zone contact, all improved— and that’s something. Sometimes, a total change is too much. To go back to our fast food metaphor: the Arch Deluxe, a 90’s McDonalds offering, replaced all of the standard burger ingredients with fancier versions (potato bun, peppered bacon, etc.). It got a huge advertising campaign (this one did not include Jason Alexander). And it completely flopped. Everyone just preferred the old way. Both Casty and the pitchers facing him are offering up familiar favorites.