Trade Deadline Outlook: Kansas City Royals

The Royals are running out of time.  After starting the second half by losing two of three games to the Marlins, Kansas City is now 48-52, and 5.5 games back of the final AL wild card position.  While the club’s recent transactions indicate that they’re not ready to wave the white flag just yet, it may be more likely that the Royals ultimately end up hedging by both buying and selling prior to the July 31st deadline.

Record: 48-52 (8.3% playoff probability, per FanGraphs)

For other entries in this series, see this post.

Buy Mode

Potential needs: Hitting of any kind, outfield help, designated hitter, left-handed relief pitching

We know the Royals are still in buy mode because, well, they just bought someone.  The club brought Adam Frazier (a member of Kansas City’s 2024 team) back into the fold in an All-Star break trade that sent minor league infielder Cam Devanney to the Pirates.  While Frazier only has an 85 wRC+ in 264 plate appearances this season, most of his struggles came in the first seven weeks.  He has hit .306/.363/.405 over his last 125 plate appearances.  Frazier hasn’t been a consistent offensive force since the first half of the 2021 season, but as a left-handed hitter who can play second base and both corner outfield slots, he checks several boxes for a K.C. team needing help in all those categories.

If Frazier isn’t the most eye-popping addition on paper, he should still boost an outfield mix that has nowhere to go but up.  Kansas City has far and away the least productive outfield in baseball, combining for -3.1 bWAR this season.  By comparison, the Rockies’ outfielders are second-worst on the list with -1.8 bWAR.  The Royals have already tried an in-season overhaul by releasing Hunter Renfroe, optioning MJ Melendez to Triple-A, and calling up top prospect Jac Caglianone less than a year after he was selected sixth overall in the 2024 draft.  As much as the Royals have tried to shuffle the deck, nothing has worked.  Kyle Isbel‘s strong center field glove is basically the only positive from the group.

Before landing Frazier, the Royals reportedly had talks with the Pirates about a more high-profile outfielder in Bryan Reynolds.  That kind of big trade piece would help K.C. both now and in the future, as Reynolds is under contract through at least the 2030 season, though at the significant price of roughly $80MM remaining on his deal.