Pittsburgh has spent the majority of the offseason focused on hitting. For a club that finished dead last in scoring last season, the approach makes sense. The Pirates parted with a pair of young starters to acquire more bats. The team sent Mike Burrows to Houston in a three-way trade that netted them Brandon Lowe and Jake Mangum. Pittsburgh moved Johan Oviedo to Boston for Jhostynxon Garcia. The deals have left them with a void to fill at the end of the rotation.
Paul Skenes, Bubba Chandler, and Mitch Keller are the locks. Braxton Ashcraft has a decent claim to the No. 4 spot. The young righty initially worked as a multi-inning reliever before transitioning to a starting role. Ashcraft either started or piggybacked with another starter in his final nine appearances. He allowed two earned runs or fewer in all but one outing in that stretch.
Jared Jones would be the obvious choice to round out the group if he were healthy, but the right-hander underwent UCL surgery in May. He expressed optimism about his progression at PiratesFest this week. Jones told reporters, including Colin Beazley of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, that he’s worked up to two bullpens a week and has been mixing in offspeed pitches. Even with the encouraging results, Jones will be hard-pressed to be ready for Opening Day. The recovery timeline for the surgery is typically 10 to 12 months. Pittsburgh is likely to take it slow with its prized asset.
Here’s a look at the top candidates to open the season as Pittsburgh’s fifth starter. Given Chandler’s inexperience and Ashcraft’s limited workload, there could be an opportunity to remain in the rotation even after Jones’ return.
The Incumbent: Carmen Mlodzinski
Of the current Pirates not named Skenes or Keller, Mlodzinski made the most starts last season. He tossed a career-high 99 innings between the rotation and the bullpen. Mlodzinski made nine starts to begin the year, but put up an ERA well over 5.00. He found himself at Triple-A Indianapolis by mid-May. The 26-year-old returned to the big-league club in June, operating primarily as a reliever. He chipped in a handful of spot starts down the stretch.
Mlodzinski has been a valuable member of the pitching staff since debuting in 2023. He’s compiled a 3.25 ERA across 109 games. The adjustment to starting just hasn’t suited him, at least not yet. Mlodzinski has a 4.47 ERA as a starter, compared to a 2.71 mark as a reliever. He would seem to have a deep enough arsenal to get through the order multiple times, as he threw five different pitches at least 10% of the time in 2025, but the results haven’t shown it. Opponents have hit just .214 against Mlodzinski the first time through the order. That number jumps to .381 the second time through the order. Mlodzinski is probably best used in a versatile role, instead of as a locked-in rotation piece.
The Rookies: Thomas Harrington and Hunter Barco
Pittsburgh’s second and third picks in the 2022 draft are on the verge of contributing with the big-league squad. Both Harrington and Barco made their debuts this past season, but only for a handful of appearances apiece. They have options remaining and are long shots to make the Opening Day roster, but they’d be the most intriguing choices.
Harrington had moved swiftly through Pittsburgh’s system until hitting a roadblock in 2025. After pitching decently at Triple-A to close the 2024 campaign, he struggled mightily at Indianapolis last year. Harrington stumbled to a 5.34 ERA with a middling 21.7% strikeout rate. After posting above-average strikeout numbers at previous stops, Harrington has failed to reach 22% in both stints at Triple-A. He was hammered for 15 earned runs over 8 2/3 innings in his brief MLB time.
Barco didn’t reach Triple-A until May. He kept his ERA under 4.00 with more than a strikeout per inning, though it came with a career-worst 13% walk rate. His swing-and-miss numbers have been much more impressive than Harrington’s, but the control has been a step behind recently. Barco tossed three scoreless innings with the Pirates at the tail end of the season. The fact that he succeeded in his cup of coffee and Harrington flopped might be enough to give him the edge on a roster spot. Barco would also give Pittsburgh a lefty in the rotation.
The Classic Pittsburgh Free Agent
Speaking of lefties, we’ve arrived at the most likely scenario. Pittsburgh has a penchant for relying on veteran southpaws to eat innings at the back of the rotation. As MLBTR’s Anthony Franco pointed out, Jose Quintana, Martín Pérez, and Tyler Anderson have all fit the bill in recent seasons. It was Andrew Heaney and trade acquisition Bailey Falter this past year.
General manager Ben Cherington has mentioned adding to the rotation. Quintana, Anderson, and Perez are still available. How about Patrick Corbin? After being one of the worst pitchers in the league in his final years in Washington, he had a resurgence of sorts in Texas last year. Corbin navigated his way to a sub-4.00 ERA through July. He was knocked around over the final two months of the season, but he put together a respectable first half. The 36-year-old Corbin could be the next soft-tossing lefty to find success at PNC Park.
Photo courtesy of Nathan Ray Seebeck, Imagn Images