It’s not your father’s deadline anymore
In the past, the MLB Trade Deadline would approach and bring a flurry of deals around the league, with All-Stars and aces constantly moved around as teams in the hunt searched for the missing piece and teams out of it looked to reload for the future. The Phillies have been no stranger to either side of the deadline, but this year, they are once again firmly in the buyers category as they look to strengthen a roster that is in the thick of a tight race for first place in the NL East.
During their previous run of success from 2007-2011, the trade deadline was utilized to bring in a few key difference makers. Cliff Lee was a major reason why the Phillies went to their second straight World Series appearance in 2009 after being acquired from Cleveland at the deadline. Hunter Pence hit .324 with a .954 OPS after being acquired from Houston in 2011 and helped the Phillies win a franchise-record 102 games.
The 2025 Phillies are in desperate need of bullpen help and could use some more firepower in their lineup, particularly in the outfield. In years past there would be no shortage of options to choose from, and the deadline would just boil down to which teams want to be the most aggressive at making deals.
That simply isn’t the case anymore.
Since the implementation of the third Wild Card spot in each league before the 2022 season, the number of willing sellers has dwindled each season since. Many teams on the bubble convince themselves that they are within reasonable striking distance of a postseason berth and elect to hold on to their players or even buy themselves. In the past, many of these barely above .500 teams would be sellers, and extremely popular ones at that as they were much more likely to have at least a smattering of high-end MLB talent to deal from.
Now, the only teams that are definite sellers are teams like the Rockies, White Sox, and Pirates. Those three teams listed as examples are a combined 109-208 on the season. The expansion of the postseason field in addition to the growing payroll disparity between teams has led to a wider gulf between the buyers and the sellers. The teams that are surefire sellers simply do not have many good players period, and even fewer that are worth trading for. And some of the ones that are, such as Pittsburgh’s Paul Skenes, are young, cheap, and cost controlled. That means they aren’t going anywhere.
There are players like Chicago’s Luis Robert Jr., but it’s debatable whether he is much worth trading for either. Since his stellar 2023 season in which he finished 12th in MVP voting, Robert owns a slash line of .216/.285/.362 and an unsightly 31.2% strikeout rate. The White Sox have opted to not trade him the past two years despite this, as he is still young (27) and is on a team-friendly contract that keeps him under control through 2027 with team options. There’s a real question whether he can ever be the player he was in 2023 again or if the White Sox are finally willing to reduce the previously high asking price due to his poor performance despite the amount of control he has left.
The lack of a deep pool of sellers and players available has resulted in a perpetual seller’s market where costs to acquire major upgrades are astronomical. There are reasons why players like the A’s Mason Miller and Brent Rooker haven’t been traded despite being on a team that has a combined 115-155 record the past two seasons. The sellers can set the prices for controllable players something akin to a king’s ransom and hold on knowing that they can either revisit talks the next season or hold on to the players in the hopes of improving the team as a whole the next year. Buying teams have opted to not meet those high costs and instead go elsewhere, overpaying for B and C level players but still giving up less than it would take to acquire the stars.
But don’t get it twisted, this isn’t to give Dave Dombrowski and the Phillies an excuse for not getting help at this deadline. Their failure to address the bullpen and the outfield in the offseason has put them into this uncomfortable situation where they will have to overpay to acquire players that may not be substantive upgrades over what they currently have. They cannot go into the postseason and expect to win with an outfield that has a collective 0.7 fWAR or a bullpen that has a 4.25 ERA. Max Kepler and Jordan Romano are DFA candidates, not key pieces of a roster for a contending team.
The overall talent pool is weak, but one position of relative strength is the market for relief pitching. Some of those at the top such as the Twins’ Jhoan Duran and Griffin Jax as well as Cleveland’s Cade Smith may end up not moving due to their cost with their years of control remaining, especially in the wake of Emmanuel Clase’s placement on non-disciplinary paid leave as part of a gambling investigation driving up those prices even more.
But there are still some quality options to be had, such as the Pirates’ David Bednar and the Cardinals’ Ryan Helsley, but they are much less sure bets as the aforementioned unmoving top of the market. Bednar had a disastrous 2024 and was demoted to Triple-A early in 2025, but he hasn’t allowed an earned run since the end of May and seems to have rebounded. He is still under control through 2026, so to be determined if he is even traded. Helsley hasn’t quite been the elite closer he’s been in the past, as he has a declining strikeout rate (26.1%), a climbing opponent’s average (.254), and a spiking home run rate (2.5%), but he owns a 3.00 ERA and has converted 21 of 26 save opportunities while still possessing some of the best average fastball velocity (99.3) in the sport. Helsley is a rental, and St. Louis is fading from contention at 54-53 and 7-14 in the month of July, so it appears likely that he will be dealt and will be well-sought after.
Trying to find a bat for the Phillies lineup is a much harder proposition. They’ve been connected to the best available in the Diamondbacks’ Eugenio Suárez, but his fit isn’t an easy one. Suárez is a third baseman and acquiring him would necessitate one of Kyle Schwarber or Bryce Harper moving to the outfield and Alec Bohm sliding over to first when he returns from the injured list, assuming he isn’t moved in a trade. Suárez’ right-handed pop (36 HR) is something that’s sorely lacking from the Phillies lineup, but he’s also a 34-year-old rental having a career year. The new market reality and the sheer dearth of bats available this year means that he will be on the radar of practically every team in contention. Suárez leaving last night’s game after taking a 96 MPH fastball to the hand certainly complicates things as well.
As for an outfielder, take your choice of slim pickings. There’s Robert Jr., Ramon Laureano, Adolis Garcia, and Cedric Mullins as the top of the market. Each comes with almost as many negatives as there are positives. Each will likely be traded for more than what they are actually worth due to the weak market. There’s been some rumblings about Cleveland’s Stevan Kwan lately, but it’s incredibly unlikely he goes anywhere with his additional two years of team control. Taylor Ward and Jo Adell of the Angels are interesting, but you can never really trust Arte Moreno to accept reality and authorize the team to be sellers despite being five games back of the Wild Card. The Red Sox seem to have an abundance of young outfielders that possibly makes Jarren Duran expendable, but their status of currently holding a Wild Card spot means they won’t really be motivated to subtract from their team.
The reality of the MLB trade deadline in 2025 is that there isn’t any Cliff Lees or Hunter Pences to be had. You will likely be giving up similar packages though for lesser players due to the scarcity in the available talent. None of that is the Phillies fault and they would be well within their right to balk at some of the prices they are likely facing. However, it is their fault that they have to be as involved in the trade market as they are now due to their failures in free agency and their inability to develop enough from within.
The Phillies are going to overpay this deadline. They can’t be blamed for having to do that. But they can be blamed for putting themselves into a position where they need to do so. Welcome to the new trade deadline.