Let’s talk about bullpen arms and draft picks.
Phillies President of Baseball Operations Dave Dombrowski is geared up for his fifth trade deadline in Philadelphia. They’ve bought each of the previous four to varying degrees. 2023 was infamous for its lack of aggressiveness in Hao Yu Lee for Michael Lorenzen, while 2022 was considered the opposite, when Dombrowski got aggressive in shipping out Logan O’Hoppe and Ben Brown for Brandon Marsh and David Robertson.
Since it’s July 11, there’s only so much information available about who may or may not be available. With that, this is just a temperature check on what the plan could be at the end of this month and how they are positioned to execute it in both the short-term and long-term picture.
This feels like the year they make a “splash.”
Dombrowski’s actions in Philadelphia are very different than the national media reputation. He’s certainly been aggressive most seasons but not with top prospects.
They’ve often shipped out second-tier prospects, especially pitchers on breakout seasons. George Klassen and Sam Aldegheri were traded last year for Carlos Estévez. In 2022, Ben Brown was traded for David Robertson.
The only time Dombrowski went above this was when he traded Logan O’Hoppe for Brandon Marsh. Marsh had five years of team control and was struggling as an Angel, while O’Hoppe was blocked by JT Realmuto. (The Phillies easily won this trade by the way)
2025 feels different. Matt Gelb wrote that they have a different tone this year. Outside of Andrew Painter, their best prospects might be available to varying degrees.
That could mean Aidan Miller is in the right deal. Maybe it’s Justin Crawford. They may think it’s the right time to sell high on Aroon Escobar and Eduardo Tait since they’re not as close to the big leagues.
Dombrowski and the Phillies have not taken that stance before. They made a big push for Garrett Crochet but he’s an outlier talent. This feels different, maybe even desperate.
The pool of relief help might be stronger than in other years. Before their sweep against the Houston Astros, the Cleveland Guardians lost 10 in a row and are currently 43-48. Given their history of developing arms, they might be wise to trade Emmanuel Clase.
The Minnesota Twins are 45-47 and could land a haul for either Jhoan Durán or Griffin Jax, they also have a core of players in their late 20s or early 30s so it might be difficult to sell that big unless they can’t refuse. There have been rumors for Pirates relievers David Bednar and Dennis Santana as well.
Is this a good idea?
It’s important to start this conversation off by saying going all-in on a closer is not a good idea from a process standpoint. Trading you’re best prospects for elite closers, who max out at slightly over 2 fWAR isn’t sound.
It’s also fair to say that teams have to take leaps of faith, that may not grade out well on a spreadsheet, to push for a title.
You don’t make that trade to “win” it in the moment or down the line; it’s with the idea that the player(s) you’re acquiring put yourself in a slightly better position to win a title. The keyword there is slightly, given the limited value one single player can have to a roster, especially ones who cannot offer superstar value.
There’s still a very good chance you don’t win a World Series and that logic makes it inherently easier to say no to those sorts of trades.
With all of that said, the Phillies are not in a position to overextend themselves unless that difference maker is young and probably plays the outfield. They have not drafted well enough to overcome the prospects they would be shipping out and their process hasn’t been great either. If they aren’t careful, then it’s hard to imagine them being able to keep the window alive down the line unless they stay the course.
It’s early but 2024’s class looks concerning. Dante Nori has not hit for any power, Griffin Burkholder has massive swing and miss issues, and John Spikerman doesn’t look like a hit. Carson DeMartini looks like the only salvageable pick from that draft.
Here are rounds 2-5 picks the prior 3 seasons (they didn’t have a second round pick in 2022 or 23:
2023: Devin Saltiban, TJayy Walton, George Klassen
2022: Gabriel Rincones Jr, Alex McFarlane, Orion Kerkering
2021: Ethan Wilson, Jordan Viars, Micah Ottenbreit, Griff McGarry
Orion Kerkering was a hit and the Phillies picked the perfect time to sell high on Klassen but there is almost nothing to speak of outside of that. Rincones had a great spring but it hasn’t translated to AAA. Saltiban regressed hard this season and McFarlane has great stuff but is probably a reliever.
To their credit, they have generally drafted well in round one. Mick Abel debuted this year, Andrew Painter is one of the best prospects in the game, Aidan Miller has regressed but still looks like a talented top prospect, and Justin Crawford is primed for a debut later this year.
But because of previous trades and drafting issues outside of round one, the Phillies have very little farm depth to make big trades. Henry Mendez has had a breakout year in Reading but there just isn’t much else. You can see the depth issues from their pitching because they haven’t been able to restock on the Brown and Klassen trades.
It’s just hard to support this being the year to make a splash. They’ve been trying to tell fans for years about the prospects coming to extend the window and they don’t have the draft history to trust backfilling big trades.