Happy fourth!
The Phillies are the same as they’ve been all season: the same concerns, strengths, and ideas entering the trade deadline. Perhaps this is the year they find a difference-maker at the deadline, but the odds are they won’t. As of writing this, the Phillies sit with a two-game lead over the New York Mets in first place. Things could be worse.
Mick Abel’s Padres Start
It was bad. He did not make it out of the second inning and walked five batters.
However, if you squint hard enough, like you’re Daryl Morey, you could see something bright. Two sequences in the first inning stuck out.
Against Fernando Tatis Jr., Abel falls behind 2-1 but throws two straight sliders in the strike-zone before getting Tatis out in front with his curveball.
Against Jackson Merrill, he again falls behind 2-1 but locates a backdoor slider then threw a high fastball off of it for a strikeout.
It might be insane to try and take anything positive out of this start but Abel has lacked a secondary offering outside of his curveball. He did not have a pitch he could trust enough to throw for strikes off his four-seam, curveball, and sinker.
In his start against the New York Mets, Abel threw 43 four-seam fastballs and 20 curveballs. He only threw 10 other offerings the entire night. This made him effectively a two-pitch pitcher and it’s why great hitters like Francisco Lindor, Juan Soto, and Brandon Nimmo had their way with him. There needed to be adjustments.
In the first inning against the Padres, Abel threw five sliders after throwing six total against the Mets. He used three sinkers after using only one against the Mets. That is growth.
The start was bad but there is reason to let him have at least one more. He entered that day with a 3.47 ERA in his first five starts and had not pitched in ten days. Struggling to find any command wasn’t the most unexpected outcome given the circumstances.
If the slider can become a third pitch for him, then it will unlock plenty of sequences to hitters. Those two strikeouts do not happen without using the slider.
What to do with Max Kepler
After the road trip, it was time to start counting down the days Max Kepler would be a Phillie. He entered the Padres series with a .628 OPS since May 1, disappointing defense, inconsistent effort, and a rant about his playing time.
The vibes were bad but the Padres series bought him some time. He crushed a ball to center field that Jackson Merrill robbed and hit his fourth home run off Dylan Cease. He picked up another 2 hits and a walk.
He still enters play with an OPS below .700 and is the weakest link in the outfield. Brandon Marsh has hit over the last two months despite his defensive issues in center field, and Nick Castellanos has been the second-best right-handed hitter on their team. Kepler hasn’t offered the stability he was supposed to provide.
The last time it seemed like Kepler was turning a corner was a nine-game stretch against the Cubs, Blue Jays, and Marlins. He picked up nine hits, including three dingers, and walked seven times to only five strikeouts. He has a .472 OPS in the nine games since, which includes the Padres series.
If Kepler can start producing more consistently, then the Phillies don’t have as much to worry about. If he can’t then the Phillies might have to try other options, either internally or at the trade deadline.
One timeline that might work is giving Kepler until the All-Star break and seeing how he’s hitting. If things aren’t going well, then it might be time to consider calling up Justin Crawford, despite the plethora of concerns about whether his game could transfer to the majors.