Fun topics.
The Phillies are 13-12 but that doesn’t matter. As of writing this, the Jacksonville Jaguars have the fifth pick and I don’t know what they will do. Take Mason Graham? Ashton Jeanty? (Man, would this be fun) Are they trading back? Will the Browns take the trade-up offers? (Doubt it)
You’ll know when this comes out Friday morning and in three years, we will all know if James Gladstone is good at the job.
Aaron Nola’s 2024 vs 2025
There has been plenty of Aaron Nola discourse over his slow start to the season. He has a 6.43 ERA through five starts and hasn’t recorded a win. He is struggling with the long ball and isn’t throwing hard. Should there be concerns?
While the results were much better to begin 2024, the process was fairly similar when you look closer. Here are his first five starts from 2024:
31.1 innings, 3.16 ERA, 4.95 FIP, 26 strikeouts, 10 walks, 6 home runs allowed, .217 BABIP. Four-seam velocity: 91.0 mph. Sinker velocity: 90.5 mph
Now look at his 2025:
28 innings, 6.43 ERA, 4.88 FIP, 31 strikeouts, 11 walks, 6 home runs allowed, .364 BABIP. Four-seam velocity: 91.1 mph. Sinker velocity: 90.0 mph.
The biggest differences are in his BABIP allowed and the ERA. Some of this is because he is allowing more hard contact. His hard-hit rate is up almost five percent from last season’s first five starts, and the barrel rate is up close to three percent.
That accounts for some of the BABIP luck but not all of it. The Phillies have played with worse defenses around him. Brandon Marsh has played more center field with Max Kepler in left and Alec Bohm has played worse defense at third base.
Some of it is also because Nola is just getting unlucky right now and he was getting lucky to begin last season.
Nola is also at a point in his career where he will pace his velocity to pitch later into the season. Here was his four-seam fastball velocity by month in 2024:
March/April: 91.1 mph
May: 92.3 mph
June: 92.9 mph
July: 93.3 mph
August: 92.6 mph
September/October: 92.7 mph
The Aaron Nola you see in April is probably not the same pitcher you will see in the later months of the season. It seems like he is pacing his velocity this month like he did last year.
The Philm Room: Johan Rojas vs Griffin Canning
This is a new segment, the first ever segment with a name on The Notes. It’s a corny but beautiful name where you know exactly what you’re getting.
Johan Rojas had the best at-bat of his season against Griffin Canning. It was one pitch and he had a plan. He knew exactly what Griffin Canning would try and do and did exactly what he was supposed to do.
Ted Williams has three rules to hit by:
- Get a good ball to hit
- Proper thinking
- Be quick with the bat
This was a moment where Johan Rojas used all three. He got a ball he was looking for because he knew how Griffin Canning would attack him. He put a good swing on it and was rewarded with an RBI single.
Canning has made some tweaks with the Mets from his time with the Angels. He went from 24.1% slider usage to 25.7%. He completely cut out the curveball and has fully leaned into throwing just three pitches as a starter.
Rojas knew Canning would throw him a slider down and away and if a pitch stayed up just enough, he could put a good swing on it. Canning couldn’t get one in the dirt and Rojas hit it right up the middle for a single. Sometimes the best at-bats are the shortest.
It’s tough to have a big picture take with how Rojas has hit. His surface stats are great. He’s hitting .317 and has a 107 wRC+. However, his projected batting average (xBA) is .197, he isn’t hitting the ball hard at all, and is striking out more. He is mostly benefiting from a .464 BABIP.
But to write this stretch off as completely luck-based isn’t right. An at-bat like this with a clear approach and an ability to execute it is something he wasn’t doing last season. At-bats like that one against Canning shouldn’t be shunned as pure luck.
Can he maintain at-bats with a sound approach? Completely different question.