Let’s unpack that idea.
Justin Crawford’s name has been one that’s been on the minds of many people in Philadelphia lately. It’s easy to see why, as the 21-year-old outfielder has had a strong season so far in Triple-A. Crawford is hitting .335 with an .851 OPS through 64 games for Lehigh Valley. He’s showcased his impressive speed as well, stealing 26 bags and only being caught 7 times.
Crawford’s production has naturally led to calls for his promotion to the Phillies. The need for an outfielder is obvious, as the current group in Philadelphia ranks 21st in OPS (.700) and 25th in fWAR (0.6). Center field has been an area of particular concern despite Brandon Marsh’s post-injury renaissance. Johan Rojas has still not shown that he can hit MLB pitching consistently enough to be a platoon partner for Marsh, let alone an everyday regular. All of this has led to renewed wishes to give Crawford a shot at the job.
First, let’s consider Crawford’s fit on the current roster. In the event of his promotion, it is likely that Rojas would be the odd man out, as the latter still has option years and isn’t being paid real money like Max Kepler. Crawford and Rojas are also similar players in that much of their game is predicated upon speed and defense (more on that later).
There’s one problem with that though. Crawford is left-handed; therefore, he wouldn’t be a platoon partner for the also-left handed Marsh or Kepler, which is how Rojas has received the majority of his playing time. It’s possible, albeit even likely, that Crawford would be an upgrade over Rojas in a vacuum, but it’s hard to see him receiving any playing time unless Marsh craters again or the Phillies move on from Kepler.
Now, let’s take a deeper look at Crawford as a player as he stands right now. Baseball America currently has Crawford as the Phillies fourth best prospect and had him 76th on their preseason Top 100 list. Here’s their scouting report from before the season:
“In 2023, Crawford’s nearly 70% groundball rate marred an otherwise excellent season. His groundball rate improved in 2024, but was still quite high at 61% in a year spent between High-A Jersey Shore and Double-A Reading. To lower the rate, Crawford narrowed his stance and stood taller in the box, which helped his bat path on balls down in the zone. There might be a little bit more improvement to come, but Crawford will likely always be a player who makes his bones hitting the ball on the ground and using his speed to leg out singles and snag extra bases. The next step is to use that speed to improve his defense, which scouts believe took a step back in 2024. They were particularly concerned by inefficient route-running masked by the speed that allows him to cover for his mistakes. He took all his defensive reps in center field, which is where he’ll have to stay in order to get the most of his value.”
As you can see from that report, and as you’ve no doubt heard from any discourse surrounding Crawford, the biggest concern for him is his groundball rate. Crawford’s average exit velocity of 90 MPH is among the upper echelon of qualified hitters in Triple-A, but he’s hit the second highest number of groundballs among qualified hitters as well. His groundball rate of 62.6% would far and away lead the Majors with the closest being Christian Yelich’s 57.7%. Since 2000, there have only been six qualified players in MLB to carry a >60% groundball rate for their careers. Two of them should be familiar to Phillies fans.
In essence, Crawford’s surface numbers are as good as they are despite the fact that he hits the ball on the ground at an unusually high rate. His speed allows him to beat those groundballs out for hits. But that is not a particularly sustainable method for success in the Majors. The difference between Minor League and Major League defenses is vast. It would be very difficult for Crawford to sustain a 60% groundball rate and be an everyday contributor in the Majors.
Perhaps Crawford is the unicorn though, or he finds a way to overhaul his swing in order to put more lift into the ball. This is not to say he should become a dead pull, home run hitter. That’s not his skillset. But to remedy some concerns about his profile, Crawford does need to find a way to hit more line drives in the air rather than relying on his elite speed to get base hits.
Finally, let’s say that Crawford is indeed called up and the Phillies do in fact want him to work on his swing. MLB hitting coach Kevin Long would be the one to oversee that change. Long has had some success with the Phillies with helping young players modify their swings, such as when Brandon Marsh came to the Phillies from the Angels in 2022.
But Long has come under fire of late for the perceived progress or lack thereof for the very same hitters he was originally credited with improving. Perhaps its unfair to judge the hitting coach for a player not being as good of a hitter as it once appeared he could be. Perhaps the hitting coach does deserve some of the blame for that stunted development. Regardless, do you want Long to be the one in charge of mentoring Crawford, a player who, no matter your opinion of him, has immense talents but also clear flaws?
Maybe Justin Crawford does find his way to the Phillies this year. It’s totally reasonable to look at his numbers and believe that he should be given a shot to stick on the Major League club. After all, the Phillies need younger, cheaper players to begin to fill holes on the roster as their core begins to age and become more expensive.
On the other hand, it’s also completely reasonable to be skeptical of Crawford’s ability to be a Major League contributor at this stage of his development. He could come up and be the dynamic everyday center fielder the Phillies have been searching for since the days of Shane Victorino. Or he could be Johan Rojas 2.0. Both ends of the spectrum must be considered when discussing his possible promotion.