There are some things I think I think
It’s an off day for the Phillies, which means there is finally some time to look at where the team is right now and see if anything is trending in the right direction. That means traipsing along the various statistical websites and finding little nuggets around the team that are pretty interesting. These are but a few random thoughts on this random Thursday off day.
- Coming up with the perfect way to statistically analyze defense has been the biggest development for baseball in the past few years. Perhaps the best statistic created of late has been OAA (outs above average) since it uses Statcast to take many different things into account when creating a number. Looking at the OAA leaderboards, there was a surprising number that stuck out. Among all qualified first basemen in the game, Bryce Harper is tied for second with +3 OAA. That is shocking to see and a pleasant surprise. We all knew he’d put in the work to make himself at least competent in the field, but to have him at this level so early on is, quite honestly, astounding. It makes all those preseason predictions of a Gold Glove for Harper much more palatable to comprehend.
- On the opposite trend, J.T. Realmuto still has the reputation for being a top notch defender behind the plate, but the numbers sure don’t make it seem like that is the truth anymore. He’s struggling with blocking and framing, but still excellent at stopping the running game. My question would be: is that all on Realmuto or does having a pitching staff, particularly in the bullpen, that isn’t known for throwing strikes at least add to the cause? If you have to deal with Gregory Soto and Jose Alvarado and Seranthony Dominguez three or four nights out of the week, three pitchers that have lapses in control, would that drag anyone down, or is it just a sign that Realmuto is in a defensive decline? Something to watch as the season continues on.
- Taijuan Walker is coming, which means someone has to leave the starting rotation. We know this because the top two pitchers do not like six-man rotations, so a bump is coming. But who? Who is headed to the bullpen? It’s down to either Spencer Turnbull or Cristopher Sanchez, but the choice should be rather simple. The leaps Sanchez has taken over the last few months, combined with the team’s continued belief that there is more development left in his game, suggests Turnbull is the odd man out. Which makes sense. It’s the same path the team used last year with Matt Strahm and that worked out perfectly. Turnbull has thrown 96 innings between 2021 and this season thanks to injuries and global plagues. Keeping him in the rotation might be the sexy thing to do based on the three admittedly outstanding starts he has given the team, but long term, they will want to protect him and his arsenal as much as possible. Strahm was in the same boat last year, went to the bullpen and has developed himself into one of the team’s more reliable relievers in the bullpen. Can Turnbull be the same thing? It’s possible.
- Gregory Soto is falling down on my own personal “trust-o-meter” in the bullpen. Could there have been plays made behind him last night that would have made the outing a little more digestible? Sure, but man. When he’s off, he’s off.
- I’ve seen some complaints about the team’s last few games ending early. Thanks to the pitch clock and the effectiveness of both Ranger Suarez and Sanchez, the team’s games ended around the two hour mark. As a father of three and the coach of a travel baseball team, I cannot thank the team enough for having quick games. I’m old and need to sleep. I do not miss the days of watching a three and a half hour slog. I’d much rather go to bed or even flip on MLB TV and watch another team. God bless the pitch clock, baby.