The Phillies closed out the first half of the season yesterday with a 2-1 win over the San Diego Padres. The Phillies are 1/2 a game up on the Mets for first place in the NL East entering the All-Star break.
First Half Thoughts
The Phillies are in first place with a 55-41 record, which at first glance seems like the Phillies have had a good first half. When you take a deeper look into this team, you can notice very quickly that they are plagued by a weakness in power and bullpen pitching. Outside of Kyle Schwarber, this team hasn’t had much pop in the lineup. Bryce Harper has been in and out of the lineup with injuries and Alec Bohm, Trea Turner, and Nick Castellanos are all lacking in the homeruns department. Max Kepler has been a major disappointment to this point, hitting just .210 with 10 homers. Kepler was a player I was very high on going into this season, and a guy who I thought could hit 25-30 homers. Unless Kepler puts it all together in the second half, those expectations are going to be hard for him to top.
The bullpen has been a cause for concern all season, and the later we get into the season, the more examples we see of how bad this team needs backend bullpen help. Jose Alvarado getting suspended threw a major wrench into things since he is now also ineligible for the postseason. Jordan Romano has been a major disappointment, and Tanner Banks, Matt Strahm, and Orion Kerkering are consistently inconsistent. It’s either an easy inning or the most stressful thing you have ever watched. I’m almost wondering if it’s a bit at this point. When they have command and velocity, they look great. When they don’t, it costs the Phillies games. I know Dave Dombrowski has talked about the Phillies looking for bullpen help, so I can only assume the Phillies are bound to acquire a reliever at the deadline. Johan Duran would be my top choice, but I do not want them giving up Justin Crawford, Aidan Miller, or Andrew Painter for anyone. Acquire the assets to win now without sacrificing too much of the future. This team is already aging.
Overall, if you were to tell me the Phillies would be in first place in the NL East with a 55-41 record at the All-Star break when this season started, I would’ve taken it 10/10 times. But this team has room for improvement and has some necessary moves that need to be made between now and August 1st. I do trust Dave Dombrowski to make those moves to get this team over the hump, especially in a year when the weaknesses are so glaring. I fully expect the Phillies the trade for a reliever or two.
Second Half Expectations
The Phillies have 66 games left until the season ends, and I expect this team to remain in the race and atop the NL East for the remainder of the season. While the Mets and Phillies will be trading punches for the entire season I do believe the Phillies pitching will give them the slight edge over the 55-42 Mets. Once the trade deadline passes, we will have a better idea of where both teams stand as the push for October continues. The Atlanta Braves (42-53) were expected to be right there with the Phillies and Mets in the standings, but they have had a disappointing year plagued by injury. The Miami Marlins (44-51) are currently in third place in the NL East, which is a huge surprise. No one was expecting the Marlins to be better than the Braves at the All-Star break.
I expect this team to continue their elite starting pitching, with hopefully an uptick in offense, especially in the power department. I have hopes that a healthy Bryce Harper will go on one of his signature runs where he crushes everything for two weeks straight. I would love to see more of a power boost from Trea Turner, Nick Castellanos, and Alec Bohm. The offense has lacked homeruns this season which is surprising because this relatively same lineup from last year mashed the baseball. I do think this offense will heat up, specifically in August.
If this team can make the right moves at the deadline without giving up too much of our future, the Phillies are going to be a real threat in the NL this postseason.
Second half predictions: With 66 games left the Phillies will go 40-26 over that stretch finishing the season with 95-67 record and winning the NL East.
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