Offense and bullpen are issues, but if the Phillies’ starters do their thing, the Phils will win.
Regular season baseball is different from postseason baseball, as everyone knows. And, as everyone also knows, timely hitting and bat-missing bullpens become more important in short series against quality opponents.
Sure, starting pitching is important, too, but more so in the regular season, where a team must navigate playing virtually every day over a six-month, 162-game slog. That’s why the Phils’ most recent homestand, in which they went 5-1 against two quality opponents, was noteworthy.
After losing 10 of 11, the Phillies took two of three from the Cubs, then swept the Blue Jays thanks to outstanding starting pitching.
- Monday (4-3 Phils win): Wheeler 6.0 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 7 Ks
- Tuesday (8-4 Phils lose): Abel 4.0 IP, 6 H, 3 ER, 3 BB, 3 Ks
- Wednesday (7-2 Phils win): Luzardo 6.0 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 0 BBs, 10 Ks
- Friday (8-0 Phils win): Suarez 7.0 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 6 Ks
- Saturday (3-2 Phils win): Sanchez 7.0 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 5 Ks
- Sunday (11-4 Phils win): Wheeler 6.0 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 9 Ks
All told, Phils starters gave up just five earned runs in their five victories, and even in their lone loss, Abel gave up just three, albeit in four innings of work. That’s good for a 2.00 ERA and 2.79 FIP over the homestand, with 40 strikeouts, five walks and four home runs allowed, three of them served up by Abel.
From May 29 through June 8, the Phillies were swept by the Brewers, lost two of three to these same Jays, and were swept in Pittsburgh, losing nine of 10. During those 10 games, Phillies starters put up a 6.67 ERA, walked 20 batters and struck out 47, allowing six home runs.
Of course, these were the two starts in which Jesus Luzardo appeared to be tipping his pitches, giving up a staggering 20 earned runs in just 5 2⁄3 innings, culminating in a 31.76 ERA. That problem appears to be fixed now. Wheeler gave up six runs in 5 1⁄3 innings in his lone start coming back from paternity leave. Sanchez and Suarez were victims of poor run support, and the Phils had to put a bullpen game together during that stretch as well.
The Phillies are deficient in the outfield. Their lack of punch throughout the lineup is stark. The absence of Bryce Harper has left the team with only one power bat, Kyle Schwarber, and there are nights the offense genuinely struggles to score runs. The bullpen, while not setting leads ablaze on a nightly basis, is clearly in need of an upgrade by the end of July, although the return of Aaron Nola and the call-up of Andrew Painter could allow the Phils to send some starters to the ‘pen, or be used as trade bait.
But these things are manageable during the regular season is you’ve got quality starting pitching. If Luzardo has fixed his tipping problem, and Abel continues to pitch well in Nola’s absence, the Phillies are likely to continue challenging the Mets for first place in the NL East, and remain one of the ten best teams in baseball.