Offseason Outlook: Detroit Tigers

The Tigers were the best team in the American League for a few months. They had a quiet deadline and narrowly avoided what would’ve been a historic collapse. While winning the Wild Card series and pushing the Mariners to the brink in the Division Series kept this from being a complete disaster, they unquestionably lost momentum in the second half. They’re now facing a couple free agent departures and questions about the future for the sport’s best pitcher.

Guaranteed Contracts

• Javier Báez, SS: $48MM through 2027
• Jack Flaherty, RHP: $20MM player option for 2026
• Colt Keith, 3B: $20.642MM through 2029 (including buyout of ’30 club option; deal also includes club options for 2031-32)

Option Decisions

• RHP Jack Flaherty holds $20MM player option
• Team, RHP Paul Sewald hold $10MM mutual option ($1MM buyout)
• Team holds $4MM option on RHP José Urquidy

Additional Financial Commitments

• Owe $1MM buyout to outrighted RHP Randy Dobnak
• Owe $500K buyout to released RHP John Brebbia

2026 guaranteed contracts: $30.5MM or $50.5MM depending on Flaherty’s option decision
Total future commitments: $71.142MM or $91.142MM through 2029 depending on Flaherty

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projected salaries courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

• Tanner Rainey (5.167): $1.6MM
• Tarik Skubal (5.114): $17.8MM
• Casey Mize (5.111): $5.4MM
• Jake Rogers (5.040): $2.9MM
• Will Vest (4.100): $3.3MM
• Zach McKinstry (4.099): $3.5MM
• Matt Vierling (4.026): $3.1MM
• Jason Foley (3.150): $3.15MM
• Alex Lange (3.145): $900K
• Andy Ibañez (3.133): $1.8MM
• Riley Greene (3.110): $6.6MM
• Spencer Torkelson (3.076): $5.1MM
• Kerry Carpenter (3.057): $3.5MM
• Beau Brieske (3.056): $1.3MM
• Tyler Holton (3.047): $1.7MM

Non-tender candidates: Rainey, Vierling, Foley, Lange, Ibañez, Brieske

Free Agents

• Jack Flaherty (if he opts out), Gleyber Torres, Kyle Finnegan, Tommy Kahnle, Rafael Montero, Chris Paddack, Paul Sewald, Alex Cobb

It took just a few days after the Tigers were eliminated for speculation to begin about Tarik Skubal. He’s a few weeks from his second Cy Young award and now a year away from free agency. Jon Heyman of The New York Post has already suggested Skubal could seek a $400MM contract. Heyman reported that was at least $250MM above what the Tigers were willing to offer during extension talks last winter. Evan Petzold of The Detroit Free-Press subsequently reported that Detroit had offered a four-year deal between $80MM and $100MM.

That was a noncompetitive proposal when Skubal was two years from the open market. His asking price has only climbed after another dominant season that moved him a year closer to free agency. It’s not accurate to say that they’re facing a $300MM gap — the Tigers would obviously be willing to offer more than that now — but it doesn’t exactly point to them being likely to hammer out a long-term deal. That naturally leads to wishcasting from other teams (and their fanbases) about the possibility of pulling off a blockbuster trade.

There hasn’t been any reporting that the Tigers intend to seriously hear teams out on Skubal, much less actively shop him. The rumors to date have been driven by a few recent instances of contending clubs trading a superstar before his final season of arbitration. The Mookie Betts trade was a disaster for the Red Sox. The Padres did quite well when they traded Juan Soto to the Yankees, winning 90+ games in each of the following two seasons. The Brewers got a solid but not overwhelming return for Corbin Burnes and have remained one of the NL’s best teams over the past couple years. The Astros landed a strong three-player package for Kyle Tucker but narrowly missed the playoffs in year one.

The Tigers have made consecutive playoff appearances after a nine-year drought. The front office has already come under fire for a deadline where they deepened the pitching staff in bulk without parting with any significant prospects for an impact acquisition (aside from arguably Kyle Finnegan). They already have a top-tier farm system and could enter the offseason with as little as $30.5MM in guaranteed contracts. They can easily accommodate a projected $17.8MM arbitration salary for Skubal.