Offseason Outlook: Chicago Cubs

The Cubs won a playoff series for the first time in eight years.  With clean books beyond 2026, will they make a major rotation addition this winter?

Guaranteed Contracts

• Dansby Swanson, SS: $105MM through 2029
• Ian Happ, LF: $18MM through 2026
• Seiya Suzuki, DH/OF: $18MM through 2026
• Jameson Taillon, SP: $18MM through 2026
• Nico Hoerner, 2B: $12MM through 2026
• Matthew Boyd, SP: $16.5MM through 2026
• Carson Kelly, C: $6.5MM through 2026

Option Decisions

• Shota Imanaga, SP: three-year, $57.75MM club option.  If declined, Imanaga has a $15.25MM player option for 2026.  If Imanaga exercises that, he’d have another $15.25MM player option for 2027 if the Cubs don’t exercise a $42.5MM club option for 2027-28.
• Andrew Kittredge, RP: $9MM club option with a $1MM buyout
• Colin Rea, SP/RP: $6MM club option with a $750K buyout
• Justin Turner, 1B/DH: $10MM mutual option with a $2MM buyout

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; salary projections via Matt Swartz)

• Reese McGuire (5.110): $1.9MM
• Justin Steele (4.143): $6.55MM
• Eli Morgan (4.091): $1.1MM
• Javier Assad (3.027): $1.9MM
• Non-tender candidates: McGuire, Morgan

Free Agents

• Kyle Tucker, Brad Keller, Caleb Thielbar, Drew Pomeranz, Taylor Rogers, Michael Soroka, Aaron Civale, Willi Castro, Ryan Brasier

The Cubs broke through this year with a 92-win season, their highest total since 2018.  They reached the playoffs for the first time since 2020 and won a playoff game and series for the first time since 2017.  After the Cubs lost Game 5 of the division series to the Brewers with a “bullpen game” pitching approach, fans couldn’t help but wonder if the team could have gone further with a healthy Cade Horton and/or Justin Steele.

Let’s start this offseason outlook by assessing the complicated option of the pitcher the Cubs chose to avoid in Game 5, Shota Imanaga.  Imanaga, 32, was a rousing success last year as an MLB rookie.  He made the All-Star team and garnered Cy Young and Rookie of the Year votes, posting a 2.91 ERA in 173 1/3 innings.

After eight starts this year, Imanaga suffered a strained left hamstring that knocked him out for 53 days.  On the season, Imanaga’s control remained excellent, but his average fastball velocity slipped below 91 miles per hour and his strikeout rate dropped below league average.  Among starters with at least 100 innings, Imanaga’s 29.2% groundball rate was the lowest in baseball, leading to a 1.93 HR/9 rate that ranked second-worst.

Imanaga still managed a 3.73 ERA, but it’s fair to say he demonstrated the skills of perhaps a 4.20 pitcher.  Even if 150 innings of a 4ish ERA is what the Cubs can expect from Imanaga moving forward, that’s rotation-worthy.  The question is whether the Cubs would sign such a pitcher to a three-year, $57.75MM contract heading into his age-32 season, and commit to that in early November.

A good comp for that might be Dallas Keuchel‘s three-year, $55.5MM deal with the White Sox six years ago.  Though a groundball heavy pitcher, Keuchel was also a soft-tossing lefty heading into his age-32 season.  That contract did not go well.

There are soft factors to consider here, such as the Cubs’ recruiting efforts toward other Japanese players and Imanaga’s popularity with fans last year.  MLBTR writers debated Imanaga’s complicated option situation, and here’s our best guess: