Right-hander Michael King has declined his mutual option with the Padres, according to a report from Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune. He’ll head into free agency and collected a $3.75MM buyout rather than stay with the Padres on what would have been a $15MM salary for next year.
King’s decision was entirely expected. Mutual options are virtually never exercised, and King will need to top just $11.25MM in free agency in order to come out ahead in making the choice to decline his option. That’s a number he’s essentially guaranteed to clear, both due to the high price of starting pitching in recent free agent classes and thanks to King’s own success in recent years. After moving to the rotation as a member of the Yankees in late August 2023, King fired off eight starts where he posted a 1.88 ERA with a 31.4% strikeout rate to end the season. After being shipped to San Diego as part of that offseason’s Juan Soto trade, he turned in a 2.95 ERA in 173 2/3 innings of work during his first full-time season as a starter and finished seventh in NL Cy Young award voting last year.
2025 wasn’t quite as strong as 2024, as King was limited to just 15 starts by a nerve issue in his throwing shoulder and a subsequent knee issue. King did return to the mound late in the year, but didn’t look like his usual dominant self with a 5.74 ERA across 15 2/3 September innings. He looked much better in a scoreless inning of relief work against the Cubs, however, and struck out all three batters he faced without issue. That’s good news, since prior to the injury King looked as dominant as ever with a 2.59 ERA and 3.26 FIP across his first ten starts of the year. While he finished the year with a 24.7% strikeout rate against an 8.4% walk rate, those figures were 28.4% and 7.6% prior to his injury.
Thanks to King’s dominance when healthy, he enters free agency with a real chance at a strong multi-year deal so long as suitors are convinced that this year’s shoulder woes are behind him. King is marketing his age-31 season, so between that fact and his shoulder problems this season it’s possible he’ll be boxed out of the five-, six-, or seven-year offers that top of the market aces have gotten in recent years. Even so, he should have the opportunity to clean up fairly handsomely on the open market in a way that would’ve been hard to imagine when looking at his first few years in the league as a middle reliever for the Yankees.
In the short-term, the Padres seem all but certain to extend King a Qualifying Offer, which King seems equally likely to reject. That process will leave King tied to draft pick compensation this winter. Last month, MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk took a look at what each team would receive if they lose a qualified free agent, and the penalties they’d pay to sign one. If King departs San Diego, the Padres would receive a compensatory pick after the fourth-round in the 2026 draft. Of course, that would only come in to play if King doesn’t re-sign with the Padres. The team’s clear needs at the top of the rotation mean that a reunion can’t be entirely ruled out, but in recent years San Diego has eschewed giving out large paydays to free agent starters in favor of a more creative approach.