Exactly 81 more games to go
Yesterday’s game marked the official mid-point of the Phillies season, as they have now played 81 games. They’ve had a pretty good start, as they sit at 47-34 and are in a tight race with the Mets for first place in the NL East, sitting a half game behind New York at the moment. The unofficial halfway point of the All-Star break is still a few weeks away, but let’s take stock of where things stand at the numerical halfway mark.
The Phillies rotation has been every bit as they were advertised before the season, as they sport a 3.39 ERA that ranks fourth best in the Majors. That’s backed up by a 3.34 FIP that’s second best and a 1.20 WHIP that’s tied for ninth best. They’ve consistently pitched deep into games, as their 454.1 IP leads all rotations. That’s helped give them a league-best 10.2 fWAR.
Zack Wheeler is firmly in the Cy Young discussion and Cristopher Sánchez and Ranger Suárez are not far behind him. Jesús Luzardo has been great outside of two brutal starts and Mick Abel has been a pleasant surprise filling in for an injured Aaron Nola. Andrew Painter is back healthy and still on track to debut later in the summer.
Offensively, the Phillies are coming off of their worst three-game stretch of the season, as they scored just one run in a series sweep by the Astros and went scoreless for 26 innings. Bryce Harper has been on the injured list since June 7th with inflammation in his wrist that has resurfaced after a bout with the same issue last season. However, it appears he’s due for a return possibly as early as Monday.
Kyle Schwarber’s had an uncharacteristically slow June, but overall, he’s been one of the best hitters in baseball with a .902 OPS and 24 home runs. Trea Turner is in the midst of his best season yet as a Phillie, as he leads the NL in hits and has played improved defense.
However, there are legitimate concerns with the Phillies. Their offense, despite being ninth in OPS (.731) and fifth in AVG (.256) ranks just 11th in runs scored (370) and 12th in wRC+ (105). They continue to be plagued with inconsistency, especially with their outfield. Nick Castellanos has had a solid season and Brandon Marsh rebounded from a brutal start, but the Phillies outfield still ranks among the lower middle half of the league thanks to an uninspiring season from Max Kepler (.683 OPS) and ineffectiveness from Johan Rojas and Weston Wilson.
On the infield, Alec Bohm has also recovered from a slow start and has been on fire for most of June, but he’s cooled off over the last week. Edmundo Sosa has provided some big hits and has destroyed left-handed pitching (.351 AVG, .901 OPS) but still struggles when given more playing time. Bryson Stott has been disappointing, as despite a hot start as the team’s leadoff hitter is hitting .243 with a .656 OPS and has found himself back in the bottom third of the order. J.T. Realmuto is in the midst of his worst offensive season since his first full season in the Majors in 2015, as he’s hitting .241 with a .661 OPS. Otto Kemp earned a promotion in Harper’s absence and provided a little bit of a spark, but he’s still only hitting .241 with just three extra-base hits.
The bullpen meanwhile has been a patchwork job from the start, and it will only get more difficult from here. Jordan Romano has struggled mightily through his first half-season in Philadelphia, as his ERA is still north of 6 despite appearing in 32 games. José Alvarado was enjoying a rebound season before being suspended 80 games for PEDs on May 18th.
All of this has led to the onus being shifted onto Matt Strahm and Orion Kerkering to take down leverage innings. Kerkering, despite taking the loss yesterday, has largely pitched well and has risen to the top of Rob Thomson’s bullpen trust ladder. Strahm on the other hand has been shaky and has a 3.90 ERA across 35 appearances and a dramatically decreased strikeout rate that is down to 27.4% from 33.3% in 2024.
The rest of the ‘pen has been a collection of ineffectiveness from the likes of signing Joe Ross and has already seen its fair share of churn, as José Ruiz and Carlos Hernández were both DFA’d in early June. Tanner Banks has mostly been better than expected, but he’s done nothing to assuage doubts that he can be the second lefty in a leverage role behind Strahm in Alvarado’s absence.
So, now we ask you dear reader. How are you feeling at the half-way mark of the Phillies season? Optimistic? Pessimistic? Has your view changed since Opening Day? What do you think will happen the rest of the way? What has been your biggest surprise? What has been your biggest disappointment?
*All team stats from start of play Thursday