Sometimes you want a round two.
As the season gets underway, we all have our takes on certain players, good or bad. It’s time we put those to the test with a game I would like to call ‘Healthy Disagreements’.
The rules are simple. Smarty and I have to come up with an argument for one Phillies pitcher we like in 2024 and the other has to come up with a counter-argument. It does not matter whether we believe in the argument or not, we just have to offer a counter.
At the end, both of us also have to recommend a movie. It can be any type of movie from the genres like horror, rom-com, or anything in between. Considering that Smarty used to write for a blog called ‘Cheesesteaks and Rocky’, I assume he won’t recommend Rambo III as well.
Anthony’s Pick: Orion Kerkering
Kerkering’s introduction to the Phillies fan base was a little unfair. He struggled in a couple of post-season outings after pitching deeper into a season than ever before. Sometimes fatigue can play a role in a couple of short sample outings.
What will make Orion a top arm in the loaded Phillies bullpen is his sweeper. According to fangraphs’s stuff+ model, Kerkering’s sweeper graded out as one of the best pitches in the entire bullpen. Some other models even grade it out as one of the best pitches in all of baseball.
He’s also figuring out how to generate a little more movement on both his four-seam fastball and sinker. They both have generated a few extra inches of arm-side run in the two outings he had in spring training.
He was shut down because of the flu in the middle of camp and will start the season on the IL. When he comes back, he’s going to be one of the best arms in one of the best bullpens in the game.
Smarty’s counter-argument:
Let’s be honest here: Half of the excitement over Kerkering is because of his name. If his name was Joe Brown, fans wouldn’t be nearly as hyped about him. As evidence, there were people who really thought that J.D Hammer was going to be a viable reliever, and it seemed to be based on nothing but his name.
I thought JD Hammer was gonna be the greatest thing since sliced bread. Still the best name in phillies baseball history.
— jay (@jsnlesage) March 24, 2024
Vibes aside, the road to hell is paved with young relievers with great stuff. Kerkering has undeniable talent, but it can often take a couple of seasons for even the most talented relievers to put it all together on a consistent basis. (See: Alvarado, Jose). It’s great that he’s working on things, but it’s a lot harder to make adjustments when you’re being consistently called on to protect minimal leads in the late innings.
I’m also concerned that missing so much time in camp might set him back a bit, at least at the start of the season. The Phillies are likely going to want him back on the team sooner rather than later, so we might get some shaky outings early on as he tries to get himself back into game shape.
Finally, I’m slightly worried that his poor performance in the NLCS might have some lingering effects. I can’t speak to his mindset one way or another, and sometimes failure can be a great teacher, it can also weigh on the mind of a player, especially a young one. It’s said that the best relievers have “no memory,” but the ability to put bad outings behind him may be a skill learned with time and not an innate characteristic.
Smarty’s pick: Seranthony Dominguez
There have been times when Seranthony Dominguez has been one of the most dominating relievers in baseball, but he’s never been able to sustain that success for an entire season. Making his return from Tommy John surgery in 2022 (after a brief cameo at the end of 2021), Dominguez looked great for most of the year. However, he faltered down the stretch to the point where David Robertson and Zach Eflin had seemingly surpassed him in the eyes of Rob Thomson. Fortunately, he seemed to regain his form during the playoffs.
In 2023, Dominguez never seemed to get fully untracked. He’d string together a few strong outings, only to surrender a key home run in the next. Speaking of home runs, he allowed them at a greater rate last year, while striking out fewer batters. (This is generally not a good combination.)
I believe (hope?) that his inconsistent 2023 season was partly due to a heavy workload in his first year back from injury. Not only was he called upon often in 2022, but he also had a very high-stress postseason run. Dominguez’s services were required in almost every game during the team’s 2022 World Series run.
The good news is that he doesn’t seem to have physical issues and has attributed his inconsistency to a mental concern. Velocity isn’t everything, but it sure doesn’t hurt to be able to fire the ball at 99 MPH. Coming off a less stressful season, and being another year removed from his surgery, will allow Dominguez to re-take his spot as one of the team’s most trusted late-inning options.
Anthony’s Counter:
What’s going to keep me up at night with Seranthony Domínguez is his slider. His fastball and sinker are going to grade out as elite pitches but it’s hard to live on them.
In 2022, his slider generated a 57.1% whiff rate and 50% strikeout rate. It was a good put-away pitch off his four-seam and sinker to right-handed hitters.
His biggest issue in 2023 was the command of that slider. He often overthrew it and hitters didn’t chase. His strikeout rate plummeted by over eight percent and his whiff dropped over four.
We haven’t seen enough results in camp to come out with some sort of massive conclusion but his slider command wasn’t encouraging in most outings.
Domínguez doesn’t have the command to avoid walks so he needs the strikeouts to balance it out to be the same guy he was in 2022. If he doesn’t have a pitch off his fastball then he’s not going to get enough strikeouts.
Smarty’s Movie Recommendation: The Naked Gun
Is The Naked Gun a baseball movie? While the entire plot doesn’t revolve around the sport like Bull Durham or Major League, the climactic scene does take place during a baseball game and heavily features Hall of Famer Reggie Jackson. Either way, for my money it’s the funniest movie ever made, and this may be the greatest line in cinematic history.
There are rumors that they’ll be remaking it starring Liam Neeson, and despite my trepidation of remaking one of my favorite movies, I think it might actually work.
Anthony’s Movie Recommendation: The Wrong Guy
Sticking in the comedy world, The Wrong Guy will also offer you plenty of laughs in a matter of minutes.
The plot is quite creative and it allows a bunch of the jokes to write themselves. There is a love story that sort of slows down the movie in the middle but the beginning and ending more than makes up for it.
You’ll love Detective Arlen played by David Anthony Higgins. Every single scene he is in is good.
You can find the movie on Youtube: here