Your staff is ready to go out on a limb for this coming season (don’t check these in September)
In looking on the horizon at what lies ahead for the 2024 Phillies, there are predictions that anyone can make.
“Bryce Harper is going to be an All-Star” – weak.
“Zack Wheeler will finish top three in Cy Young voting” – predictable
What we want is the juicy stuff. Give me something a little more outlier, something that makes people question you at first, then start to come to your side with more thought and critique. We here at The Good Phight are not afraid to be wrong. So, here are fearless predictions for the team in preparation for the season about to unfold.
Johan Rojas will win a Gold Glove
Check the winners from last season for the National League Gold Glove and you’ll see a bunch of names that you’d expect to see. Christian Walker, Ke’Bryan Hayes, these are verifiable top glovesmen that also have a track record of providing some solid offense. We’ve long past the days when offensive production was just as much an indicator as to who would win the Gold Glove as defensive reputation was (looking at you, Rafael Palmiero). Evaluators seem to rely more on defensive statistics to choose the award finalists and eventual winners. That’s why Brenton Doyle, he of the 43 wRC+ in 2024, was able to win a Gold Glove.
That is going to have to be the path Rojas takes in order to win the award for himself. He’s going to have to show off the defensive chops to overtake Doyle, something that may not be as far off as you think. Doyle led all center fielders in OAA with +15, but Rojas was no slouch, capping his season with +9 OAA, second in the National League to only Doyle himself. The difference is Rojas had less than half the chances (170) at the position than Doyle did (400). With Rojas getting the starting position this year from the jump, there should ample opportunity for him to get the chances to show his elite glove to take home the award. — Ethan Witte
The Phillies lead the National League in Home Runs
Normally I do a whole article laying out 10 bold predictions for the Phillies season. This year, I kept that relegated to the Hittin’ Season podcast, and you can hear that episode here. In this space, I’ll share one of those predictions with you, and that is the Phils will hit more home runs than any other team in the National League in 2024.
Despite getting off to a slow offensive start and being without Bryce Harper for the first month of the season, the Phils slugged 220 dingers last season, 8th-most in MLB and 3rd in the NL behind only the Braves (307) and Dodgers (249), who finished 1st and 2nd in baseball.
First of all, the Braves’ offense will not wail on the baseball to the same degree they did a year ago, when they slugged over .500 as a team. That’s just not happening again. Second, you can reasonably expect Trea Turner to not be horrible for four months, for Harper to not wait until June to start hitting dingers, and for the a slight power uptick from guys like Bryson Stott and Alec Bohm. The only Phillies to cross the 30-homer threshhold last season was Kyle Schwarber (47), and there’s no reason to think he won’t hit that many again.
Sure, the addition of Shohei Ohtani makes the Dodgers’ lineup even more dangerous, but it wouldn’t be a fearless prediction if it was a slam dunk, right? – John Stolnis
The Phillies win the NL East and the Braves choke
The first bold prediction that came to mind was that Rojas will win a Gold Glove, but Ethan was way ahead of me there. I thought about one-upping him and going with something like Rojas winning a Platinum Glove, or dating Taylor Swift and leading the Phillies to the rare Super Bowl win.
Instead, I’m going with the Phillies winning the NL East. Much has been written and talked about the expectations on this team in 2024, and with the core in their prime years and the window for a World Series growing smaller, the feeling is it’s now or never. The first step toward that goal needs to include grabbing a tomahawk, snapping it over their knee, and not waiting until the postseason to send the Braves crying back to Atlanta.
More than anything else, the Braves know how to choke. This year the Phillies are going to send them to bed way ahead of October.
There’s no question about the skill in the Braves’ lineup. And their fans swear all day long the level of talent far exceeds that of any other ballclub, especially the Phillies.
The reality, however, is the Phillies as a team possess more talent, more competence, more energy, and more personality than any iteration of the Braves. The lineup is solid. The bullpen may be the literal best in the majors. We have Wheeler and Nola and Suarez.
They’ll have slumps. Someone will get injured. Someone else will slump. Nola will give up dingers. At some point we’ll all cry the season is over and swear off baseball forever.
But when the leaves turn red the division belongs to the boys in pinstripes.
Smell ya later, Snitker. – Brian McQuilkin
Mick Abel will be a key part of the post-season lineup
If there is one constant in baseball, and sports in general, your team is going to suffer injuries over the course of a season. They can often be devastating…or an opportunity you might not have prepared yourself for. The Phillies rotation looks great, even with Taijuan Walker likely starting the season on the IL. Spencer Turnbull will likely get a couple starts, but I think his true value will be as a bullpen piece as the season goes on. While he may be the go-to choice to fill in the rotation this early season, I believe Mick Abel will insert himself into this lineup before the season’s end and not leave.
Abel really impressed me with his showing this Spring Training and I don’t believe he will be long for AAA. I don’t have much faith in the other 40 man roster options like Kolby Allard, David Buchanan, and Nick Nelson in any capacity. I believe Abel will excel in Lehigh Valley and force the Phillies hand at some point this season.
This will be Abel’s coming out party and whether as a rotation piece during the season or a post-season arm in the playoffs (think Suarez 2022), he ain’t gonna leave the Phillies clubhouse. – Jay Polinsky
Johan Rojas will be a serviceable hitter
Admittedly, “serviceable” doesn’t seem like a fearless prediction. It sounds tepid, like a hot dog pulled from a giant, precooked stack on Dollar Dog Night (RIP). Still, given the way that people have been talking about Rojas’ bat, I’d argue that this qualifies. To be clear, “serviceable” doesn’t mean league average, or even close to it. It just means being, if not an asset at the plate, then not a pressing problem at it either.
Rojas’ performance at the plate in 2023 was uninspiring. The sole bright spot was a batting average of .302, and that was more noise than anything (his expected batting average was .247). His barrel rate was less than 1%. He chased 40.4% of the pitches he saw out of the zone. So why do I believe he’ll improve in 2024? Two reasons. The first is simply the accrual of experience. Rojas has only 164 regular-season plate appearances under his belt, and he’ll have plenty of opportunities to learn and develop over the course of his first full major league season. And as he does so, he’ll benefit from a teacher who knows how to help him maximize those opportunities: hitting coach Kevin Long, who you can think of as the second reason. Long, whose reputation in the industry is well deserved, isn’t going to turn Rojas into a Silver Slugger winner, but he knows how to coax a better, more patient, and more discerning bat out of him. Rojas’ development over the course of 2024 will look more like gradual growth than a sea change. But by the end of the season, he won’t be given that extra bunt training anymore. – Jared Frank