While Dombrowski has made moves to try and help, can the moves he’s made be labeled “aggressive?”
We’ve now officially entered the Hot Stove portion of the 2025 season, and Phillies fans are already window shopping.
By 6 p.m. ET on Thursday, July 31, the Phils could at least one high-impact relief pitcher, and perhaps two, as well as an outfielder who can hit a little bit.
Phillies outfielders rank 24th out of 30 MLB teams in fWAR (0.6), with a wOBA (.306) that is 20th and an OPS (.693) that is 22nd. The bullpen’s ERA (4.63) is 25th, they’ve allowed a .255 average that ranks 24th and a home run rate (1.29 HR/9) that is second-worst in the sport.
Help is needed.
There’s no doubt the Phillies will be buyers at the deadline but, in this era of three wild card teams per league, there are few surefire sellers. It’s for this reason the trade deadline should be pushed back to mid-August, but you can’t fight City Hall. There will be a feeding frenzy for the quality players who will be available over the next month.
USA Today’s Bob Nightengale’s article Wednesday on the current state of the deadline had this blurb about the Phillies and what team president Dave Dombrowski could be thinking over the next few weeks:
If you know anything about Phillies president Dave Dombrowski, it’s that passive isn’t in his vocabulary. He realizes this team is getting older, Kyle Schwarber, J.T. Realmuto and Ranger Suarez are pending free agents, and the time is now to win. Anything less than a World Series appearance would be a colossal disappointment. They took a $10 million gamble on Max Kepler that has backfired, and are seeking another left fielder or center fielder plus bullpen reinforcements.
One could argue making Max Kepler your biggest off-season position player acquisition is passive, but let’s put that aside for the moment.
I’ve seen a number of blurbs like this over the last few years with regard to Dombrowski’s aggressiveness, and there certainly have been times in his past when he has made major moves.
- December, 2016: Acquired Chris Sale from White Sox for Boston’s then-No. 1 prospect Yoan Moncada and three other top-30 prospects.
- December, 2014: Acquired Yoenis Cespedes from Red Sox for Rick Porcello
- July, 2014: Acquired David Price from Rays in a three-team trade, giving up CF Austin Jackson, left-hander Drew Smyly and infield prospect Willy Adames
- November, 2013: Acquired Ian Kinsler from Rangers for Prince Fielder
- December, 2009: Acquired Max Scherzer and Austin Jackson for Curtis Granderson and Edwin Jackson in three-team deal
- December, 2007: Acquired Miguel Cabrera from Marlins for six prospects, including two top-10s.
Of course, all but one of those deals happened in the winter. Only the Price trade with Tampa was completed at the deadline. Back in January, I ranked Dombrowski’s 15 biggest trades since joining the Philadelphia organization, and while he may have aggressively tried to swing a franchise-altering move in-season, it’s hard to say the actual moves proved to be “aggressive.”
- At last year’s deadline, Dombrowski acquired OF Austin Hays from Baltimore for RP Seranthony Dominguez and CF Christian Pache and picked up closer Carlos Estevez from Los Angeles for SP George Klassen and P Samuel Aldegheri.
- The 2023 deadline was extremely quiet, with the only acquisition of consequence being No. 5 starter Michael Lorenzen from Detroit for 2B Hao-Yu Lee.
- Dombrowski’s biggest trade deadline since coming to Philadelphia was in their World Series season of 2022, when he picked up center fielder Brandon Marsh for catcher Logan O’Hoppe, reliever David Robertson for pitching prospect Ben Brown, and No. 5 starter Noah Syndergaard from the Angels for Mickey Moniak and outfield prospect Jadiel Sanchez. He also got Edmundo Sosa from the Cardinals for reliever JoJo Romero in what was seen as a less significant move at the time.
Dombrowski’s biggest deal since becoming the president of baseball operations was last winter’s Jesus Luzardo trade, which like his other biggest deals came during the winter. In none of the moves he’s made at the deadline since joining the Phillies has he given up a consensus top-100 prospect for an impact player.
Now, make no mistake. Dave Dombrowski is an outstanding head of baseball operations. He has put together a roster that is one of the very best in the sport, and you don’t do that in multiple stops along the way over the course of a 30-year career and do it all while being bad at your job. The Phillies are lucky to have him.
We remember the Matt Klentak era, don’t we?
That being said, it’s simply not accurate to guarantee the Phillies will be “aggressive” at the trade deadline, simply because they haven’t been under Dombrowski. Will this year be any different? In an interview this week with The Athletic’s Jayson Stark and Doug Glanville, Dombrowski indicated the team will be looking to add an impact reliever to the bullpen, but will look to utilize his surplus of starting pitchers to make any further improvements.
But you should also know this: The July 31 deadline might not go like a lot of Phillies fans think it will go.
That’s because Dombrowski didn’t sound like a man shopping for multiple high-leverage relievers, at least not at the moment. Instead, he told a story that felt both instructive and foreshadowing.
It wasn’t a story of anything that has happened since he arrived in Philadelphia, either. It was a story about his 2018 Red Sox…
…The postseason bullpen is a lot different than the regular-season bullpen,” he said, “because in the National League this year, if you advance past the wild-card round … you play five games (in the next round, the NLDS). Well, the way the schedule is (with an extra off day), you only need three starting pitchers during that time period. So if you have five (starters), two of them can go into the bullpen as it is there. Plus, if you have additional (surplus starters), they can go into the bullpen there.
“A good example,” Dombrowski went on, “was in ’18, when I was in Boston. Alex Cora was our manager, and he did a masterful job of working our starters into our bullpen and using some of them at times in the ’pen. I mean, we ended up using Sale in the ’pen. We ended up using Eovaldi in the ’pen, and they did very well for us. And we’d give somebody an extra day’s rest because we knew we could fill in with somebody else.”
Once Aaron Nola is back, they will have five starters down the stretch — Zack Wheeler, Nola, Jesus Luzardo, Cristopher Sanchez and Ranger Suarez, as well as Mick Abel (if he’s not dealt), Andrew Painter and Taijuan Walker. Based on those quotes, it’s a virtual lock that some combination of Luzardo, Sanchez, Suarez, Abel and/or Painter will be counted on to provide high-impact relief in the postseason.
It worked for the ‘18 Red Sox. It could very well work for the 2025 Phils.
So while it does sound like another reliever will be added, don’t expect it to be an “aggressive” move to grab one.
Dombrowski also appeared to throw cold water onto the idea of adding an outfielder or right-handed bat to the mix.
Could there be more items on the Phillies’ to-do list?
Dombrowski is always shopping, but he downplayed that idea. His rotation is very good. And he’s not looking to address his lineup, he said, because “we like where we are right now.” He also hinted he could find position-player depth in the farm system (possibly from someone like top-100 outfield prospect Justin Crawford).
So don’t expect the Phils to be among the suitors should the Pirates make Bryan Reynolds available, or the Angels’ Taylor Ward, or the Red Sox’ Jarren Duran, or the Orioles’ Cedric Mullins. It doesn’t sound as if a move like that is on Dombrowski’s radar.
There’s no rule that says an “aggressive” trade is the only solution, but it’s hard to look at the Phillies outfield and not be wistful for a more impactful player to come to Philadelphia. But Dombrowski’s trades during their three straight trips to the postseason simply filled in the gaps and didn’t require the Phillies to give up much of consequence.
For better or worse, the deals he’s made in his previous three trade deadlines have largely been to acquire complementary players, and it sounds like that’s the plan again. You could argue Estevez, brought in to be the team’s primary closer, was a primary piece, and that’s fair. An established closer with the Angels, Estevez was supposed to be a lock-down 9th inning guy and give the Phils an unbeatable bullpen in October.
It’s unfortunate, but it didn’t work out that way.
This is not meant to be an indictment of Dombrowski’s performance at recent trade deadlines. After all, it takes two to tango and, as has already been mentioned, it’s more difficult to find impact players in the middle of the season with so few sellers and when most of the sellers that are out there don’t have a ton of value from which to deal.
Still, when you hear people telling you the Phillies and Dombrowski will be “aggressive” at the trade deadline, remember you’ve heard that said the previous three trade deadlines, too. There’s not much proof of that actually being the case.
Dombrowski is a Hall of Fame, World Series-winning GM. My analysis means nothing. The outcome of Attempt No. 4 at a World Series title will be the best indicator of whether his approach at this year’s trade deadline will be the right one.