Sometimes, it’s a slow burn
Quick: think of the worst habit people in sports analysis, the ones who are paid all the big bucks for the big name websites, what’s the worst thing that they do this time of year?
If you’re thinking of hot takes, well, yes, but that’s not what I was thinking about.
Think more along the lines of the NFL event that is going to take place this weekend. What do tons of people have a habit of doing during this event?
That’s right, now you’re thinking.
Snap judgements.
The NFL draft is the worst place to find these kinds of judgements because multiples so called “experts” get paid a lot of money to give their instant analysis about each pick and why it will or will not turn into a gigantic waste of resources for each team. It’s the worst habit of all sports analysis, the need to make a sweeping judgement on some kind of event that needs weeks, months or even years to be properly evaluated due to the far reaching tentacles each move has.
In the NFL, it’s the draft. In baseball, it’s trades.
Each trade that happens in MLB needs to have a winner and loser. We’re all guilty of it; it drives content and sparks discussion. There are times when it is easy to declare a winner almost immediately for trades. Mark McGwire going to the Cardinals, Carlos Beltran going to the Astros – these are the moves that were immediately successful and helped propel the acquiring teams to success almost right away. Yet most trades these days require a much longer time to bake due to improved player analysis, changing player development and the fact that sometimes, it just doesn’t work out.
Cristopher Sanchez has been excellent this year. Heck, he was excellent last year after he was permanently inserted into the starting rotation last year in June, pitching 95 2⁄3 innings of 3.32 ERA baseball, outstanding work for a team’s #5 starter. Prior to that stretch of success, the trade he was involved in that sent Curtis Mead to the Rays was seen as largely a failure for the Phillies.
Cristopher Sánchez for Curtis Mead is top three and it ain’t 2 or 3 https://t.co/QNJcLddFE2
— Jon Becker (@jonbecker_) January 7, 2022
-In Nov 2019 the Phillies traded Curtis Mead to Tampa for LHP Cristopher Sanchez. Sanchez appears to be a journeymen type. Mead is a 20 year old from Australia with some intriguing skills. Teams should be leery about making these type of trades with the Rays.
— Michael Schneider (@mikecschneider) July 2, 2021
“The Phillies are probably going to regret this trade very soon.”
Looks like the Cristopher Sánchez for Curtis Mead trade is going to cause a lot of pain. https://t.co/xwEnFbpHvd
— Destiny Lugardo (@destiny_lugardo) October 23, 2021
You’ll notice the dates of those declarations coincide with Mead starting to climb up the rankings of national prospects lists. Once he entered the top 100 of nearly every major publication (justifiably so), the trade started looking worse for the Phillies. After all, prior to 2023, Sanchez wasn’t more than an intriguing arm that had a solid pitch in his changeup that could get big leaguers out, but still hadn’t been able to corral the rest of his pitching arsenal into something resembling a major league starter. His 2022 line with the Phillies (15 G/3 GS, 40 IP, 5.63 ERA, 9.6 BB%, 19.8 K%) is something to inspire much confidence that he’d suddenly make the next step. Meanwhile, people from outside of the organization saw Mead as a player that might have filled several holes that opened up for the Phillies. Might he have been an heir apparent for Alec Bohm once the latter’s contract was up? Could he had started to take playing time away from Nick Castellanos had he been able to get better in the outfield? It became of a game of “what if?” that felt like a staple of evaluating trades made by the Phillies.
What we did see in 2023 on the end of Sanchez was a player that still had some developing to and an organization that has grown into one where that development could realistically be expected to occur. It has been more than a minute since we would have considered the Phillies to be a team that is able to get their hands on pitchers and turn them into big league contributors. Once Cole Hamels arrived for good, it was difficult to find someone else prior to Aaron Nola that we could point to as a success story for the team’s pitching development program. Now, we see that the team is able to grab onto arms with a whisper of intrigue and turn them into pitchers that are positive contributors to the major league staff.
With Sanchez, that was what was needed: time. He needed to buy into what the team was selling him as far as an improvement plan, put the work into that plan and get to the point where he is today. Are there still warts to his game? Sure. His current walk rate of 10% isn’t going to be sustainable if he wants to continue in the rotation. But we can also look at other numbers that he has at this point (25.5 K%, 66.2 GB%) and find how he is continually able to get outs on the mound.
It’s yet another reminder that before we rush to judgement on trades when they happen in real time, let’s just pump the brakes on doing so before everything plays out. The ripple effects of these trades can spread over a period of time before a proper evaluation can be made. Maybe Mead doesn’t really find a position in Tampa Bay and is dealt to another team. Does that mean the Rays “lose” the trade since Mead didn’t make it in the organization? Not necessarily. It just means that these things take time to cast judgement on.
Keep your inner Mel Kiper silent when you see the team do something. They just might know what they’re doing.