Philadelphia Phillies starter Aaron Nola is struggling to start the 2025 season. This continues the pattern after his rough stretch to conclude the 2024 regular season. In the last month of last season, Nola had a 4.91 ERA and gave up seven home runs. He had a 3.38 ERA in the first half of last season compared to a 3.84 ERA in the second half. The latter half of last season saw Nola have a worse strikeout-to-walk rate and HR/9 rate than the first half. Furthermore, Nola is now in the second season of a seven-year, $172 million dollar deal after a not-so-great first year. He will need to turn things around for the Phillies sooner rather than later.
Nola has an 0-5 record with a 6.43 ERA in five starts this season, to go with a 4.88 FIP and a 2.82 strikeout-to-walk rate. He has a 24.6% strikeout rate and a 8.7% walk rate so far, along with a .298 batting average against and a 1.607 WHIP. While Nola has improved his strikeout rate relative to 2024, he has a worse walk rate, batting average against, and WHIP in 2025. He has a career-worst 1.93 HR/9 rate so far this season. That ranks as the sixth worst in MLB among qualified pitchers. Nola has had a problem giving up home runs for most of his career. Since the start of the 2021 season, he has allowed the third most home runs among qualified pitchers in that span.
Aaron Nola says his struggles are very frustrating. He says his 0-5 record with a 6.43 ERA is “brutal.” He says he needs to keep going out there and competing and he hopes the velocity comes up on his fastball. Aaron spoke on @NBCSPhilly pic.twitter.com/cxa1qAsgqg
— John Clark (@JClarkNBCS) April 22, 2025
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Phillies’ Aaron Nola Struggling to Start the Season
What Is Going Wrong
Nola has seen his velocity go down this season. In 2024, he had a 92.5 mph average fastball velocity, and it’s down to 91.1 mph to start this season. Additionally, Nola is throwing his fastball 4.3% less than he did last season. He has seen the velocity on his cutter decrease from an average of 87.5% mph last season to an average of 85.8 mph this season. Like the fastball, Nola is throwing his cutter less this season compared to last year. Nola has seen his sinker velocity drop from a 91.5 mph average last season to a 90.0 mph average this season. However, he is incorporating the sinker more this year, in contrast to the fastball and cutter. Nola has seen his knuckle curve and changeup velocity decrease as well. He is throwing his changeup more often than last season.
Potential Adjustments
With the addition of Jesús Luzardo, who has been an underrated acquisition so far, there is not as much responsibility on Nola to help carry the load. Nola has not gotten much run support which does not help his cause. It is also worth mentioning that he has a 4.70 xERA and a 3.38 xFIP this season. Nola needs to find ways to reduce his 24.0% HR/FB rate. He will need to regain his velocity as much as possible. He may need to adjust how often he is throwing some of his pitches if the velocity decline continues. The sinker has been the most effective pitch for Nola this season, based on FanGraphs pitch value ratings. Some changes like the offense improving are out of Nola’s control, but there’s plenty he can work on himself.
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