A visit around SBNation’s sister sites to look at the other teams in the division
The Phillies have to play someone this year. The schedule makers have decided that the NL East is the place to be, so they’ll challenge four other teams for divisional supremacy. To gauge how each team is looking, I’ve asked the site managers for three of SBNation’s sister sites and one Miami expert to talk about their team’s outlook for the 2024 season.
Kris Willis, site manager of Battery Power, the SBNation site for the Braves
1. The Braves are a behemoth. Their lineup is good, their rotation is good and their bullpen is good. And yet they haven’t made it past the NLDS the past two seasons. Is there a chip on their shoulder heading into the 2024?
I think so. It was a topic at their annual FanFest event and was a talking point as Spring Training got started. Spencer Strider has been very vocal that the team needs to adopt more of a “World Series or bust” mindset. One reason the Braves have had so much success in the regular season is that they adopt a one game at a time mindset. They don’t let themselves get too high or too low. I think that steady approach has served them well over 162 games, but there is no denying that they have lacked an edge and it hasn’t taken long for the Phillies to put them on their heels. I think they need to have a chip on their shoulders heading into 2024.
2. It feels like every player in the lineup hit to their 90th percentile outcome. Exact replicas of their 2023 season across the board feels like a difficult thing to do. Which player do you think is least likely to duplicate his 2023 season?
This is a great question and a great point too. Last season was unbelievable with eye popping stats across the board. You can’t reasonably predict that they will reach those heights again, even though I still believe that this is probably the best offense in the majors. I will go with Matt Olson though because I can’t reasonably expect someone to duplicate a 54 homer season. Olson also outperformed his metrics with a .604 slugging percentage against an expected slug of .558. A 40-homer season is still probably in play, but it will be hard to duplicate what he did last summer.
3. Ronald Acuna is the best non-Ohtani player in the game, full stop. What makes him so incredible?
Acuña is so much fun to watch. The homers and the stolen bases didn’t surprise me last year even though he became the first player to ever go 40-70. What surprised me was how he refined the rest of his game. Acuña entered last season with around a 25% strikeout rate, but struck out just 11.4% of the time last season. He recorded 217 hits and scored 149 runs. I think that is the scary part. We know Acuña has the power and the speed to put up monster numbers, but if his plate skills continue to improve or he can maintain the level he was at last season, he is a bonafide candidate for a triple crown.
4. It’s hard to pick out an X-factor for this team since they’re all really good, but if there was one player that can make a huge difference, good or bad, who is it?
It would be easy to go with Chris Sale here because he could have a huge impact on the rotation, but I really think that we might see a huge step forward for Michael Harris. Harris got hurt early last season and was hitting .163 on June 6. Over his final 100 games, Harris hit .335/.360/.552 with 16 homers and 15 stolen bases. Harris has had a great spring. He already provides Gold Glove caliber defense in center. I think he moves up in the Braves’ batting order this year and becomes an All-Star.
5. If the team fails to make it to the World Series in 2024, what are the chances that changes would be made to the team to get them to that level?
I think they are slim. The Braves have invested heavily in this core and they are committed to them for the long haul. Brian Snitker is signed through at least 2025, but I don’t get the sense there is any pressure on him after winning the World Series in 2021. The more the playoffs are expanded, the more I think it becomes a coin flip. The Braves showed that in 2021. The Phillies showed it in 2022. I know some teams haven’t had issues with the layoff between the Wild Card round and the Division Series, but it does seem to be something that has been tough for Atlanta and the Dodgers even. Another flame out would probably crank up some pressure, but I don’t get the sense that they would be interested in making drastic changes. With Max Fried set for free agency, the 2025 Braves may end up looking different anyway.
Also I think that you have to give a lot of credit to the Phillies. Facing Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola isn’t an easy out, especially in a five-game series. Philadelphia’s bullpen was lights out during the Division Series in 2023 and Rob Thomson pushed all the right buttons in terms of matchups. The playoff crowds at Citizens Bank Park have been insane. It is easy to say that the Braves didn’t play well, but the Phillies had a lot to do with that.
Ely Sussman, site manager of Fish on First
1. There’s been a lot of criticism of the Marlins for not spending money on a playoff team prior to their signing Tim Anderson. Was their spending done at the 2023 trade deadline with getting Josh Bell and Jake Burger, or was there simply no one appealing enough to them on the free agent market in their price range?
The Marlins’ projected 2024 Opening Day payroll is only marginally above what it was entering 2023, still ranking in the bottom third of all MLB teams. That’s disappointing for a franchise coming off a rare postseason berth and a considerable year-to-year home attendance increase. It is more nuanced than that, to be fair. Miami’s most glaring weaknesses entering the offseason were shortstop and catcher, and this free agent class totally lacked satisfactory solutions at either position. New president of baseball operations Peter Bendix inherited a depleted farm system and isn’t in a hurry to flip the few controllable assets he has for established (and expensive) veterans on other rosters. If Josh Bell had elected free agency, which looked like a legitimate possibility considering his hot finish to the season, I do believe most (if not all) of his $16.5M salary would’ve been reinvested to fill the offensive void. Instead, they’re running it back with a lot of familiar faces.
2. I am a big, big Sandy Alcantara fan, but he’s out for 2024. Which pitcher is going to have to step up in his stead and why is it Eury Perez?
Unfazed by loud criticism from their own fanbase, the Marlins were extra careful in their handling of Eury Pérez last season, conservatively limiting his pitch count, innings per start and total starts. So it’s devastating to see him suffer an elbow injury despite those precautionary steps. Any hope of competitiveness this year now hinges on Jesús Luzardo replicating his great 2023 performance. It’s fair to ask for a little more from him—if Luzardo is simply as effective on the road as he is in his Miami-based starts, he’ll be an All-Star. Realistically, there is no substitute for peak Sandy. The Marlins will hope that a handful of young pitchers (including Edward Cabrera, Max Meyer and Ryan Weathers) improve in concert. I’m particularly intrigued by the not-as-young A.J. Puk, who reported to camp with a surprisingly deep pitch mix and certainly looks the part of a starter even though he lacks MLB experience in his new role.
3. Is Jazz Chisholm, Jr. a top five center fielder?
When Jazz is on the field and facing right-handed pitching, you could make the case that he’s among the five best center fielders in the league. When you remove those caveats, he isn’t particularly close. He suffered significant injuries to his knee, back, foot, hamstring and oblique before his 26th birthday. He has made lifestyle changes entering 2024, including cleaning up his diet, but it would be irrational to project a fully healthy season for him when he hasn’t sniffed that milestone yet. And then there’s the issue of his platoon splits (lifetime .603 OPS in 297 PA vs. LHP). Chisholm’s defense at his new position has markedly improved over the past year, but the elite tier is reserved for players with superior durability and well-roundness at the plate.
4. We’re Phillies people. We have to ask about Sixto Sanchez. It’s literally a contractual obligation. Is Miami just going to say “anything we get is a bonus!” or are they expecting him to be productive this season?
When Sixto Sánchez reported to Marlins spring training in February, he was more of a carnival attraction than a viable major leaguer. His conditioning was poor (as usual) and it was presumed that his right shoulder was unsalvageable. The progress he has made over the last month is frankly inspiring. Sánchez’s fastball has averaged around 95 mph in spring games and topped out at 99, rarely yielding hard contact. Having used up his minor league options, he needs to be on the Marlins pitching staff and he’ll be there as a reliever. Expectations still ought to be low. There’s hardly any precedent of pitchers reemerging after three consecutive lost seasons and having sustained success. Simply seeing him in meaningful games again will be a treat.
5. The Marlins have been searching for a catcher for what seems like forever. They added Christian Bethancourt this offseason, but he’s not a long term answer. Is there anyone in their system close to the majors that can plug that hole for them in the future?
Marlins catcher production has been pathetic in the half-decade since they traded J.T. Realmuto. If you could fuse Christian Bethancourt and Nick Fortes into a single player, they’d form a quality starter. Separately, neither of them move the needle, unfortunately. Not much hope in the prospect pipeline. I’m intrigued to see Will Banfield build off of his breakout year, but he still has to improve his swing decisions. Hopefully the new front office implements fresh ideas for properly developing backstops.
BONUS QUESTION! Why won’t they bring back the home run sculpture?
The affection that out-of-towners have for the home run sculpture has always amused me haha. If the people who actually watched Marlins games daily cared for it as deeply, it would have already been restored to its original location (Derek Jeter led the charge for putting it outside and he’s been gone for two years). Arrive early the next time you’re in Miami for a game and check it out on the east plaza of the ballpark!
Patrick Reddington, site manager of Federal Baseball, the SBNation site for the Nationals
1. The Nationals are rebuilding, but there are still some interesting players on the team, namely CJ Abrams. He made a swing change that sort of saved his season last year. What else might Abrams need to do in order to take yet another step in his development?
Was it a move to the leadoff spot, where he was more comfortable and responded to the responsibility, staying on plane and on top of the ball with his swing, shrinking the strike zone, and not chasing out of his so-called “happy zone”, not chasing fastballs up or breaking balls down? Was it a moment of recognition last year that this is his team and he’s going to be a leader for the next-gen Nationals? All of the above?
Abrams made a significant jump over the course of the summer last year. If he is able to continue to improve his strike zone discipline, continue to improve as a defender (I think he got a lot more comfortable at short last year too), and if he keeps stealing bases and stirring things up at the top of the lineup, he can have even more of an impact than he did as the season went along last year. And he is still just 23, so there is reason to think he’s still building towards being the kind of player he’ll ultimately be. As you guys know in Philly, (you like Trea now, right?), the Padres did both teams a great service trading away both shortstops.
2. There are two prospects the team has in Dylan Crews and James Wood that appear near ready to go. When should we expect to see them in the majors?
I’ll be shocked if both aren’t up relatively early in 2024. There’s a legitimate case to be made that Wood’s showing this spring should have earned him a spot to start the season in the majors though I fully understand the club knows more about his development than fans do. Everyone who followed along and watched the few games that were available this spring saw the same thing: Wood is well on his way to being part of the outfield in D.C.
Crews didn’t do as well at the plate this spring, but I don’t think anyone who’s followed his career, in college and so far as a pro (in limited-limited exposure), is worried about him taking the next step.
Both finished the year at Double-A, where the Nats had a large number of their top prospects playing together.
Wood is set to start at Triple-A this year, no word on Crews yet, though I’d guess he’ll start at Double-A and make the jump if he plays to expectations. From there it is just matter of time before both are up in the majors. No pressure, Victor Robles.
3. The rotation is…..something. Is there anyone near the majors that can give the team hope?
I think Jackson Rutledge (24 yo, 2019 1st Round pick) is the next arm up in the starting mix, and would have honestly preferred to see him working in the majors every five days over Trevor Williams (who would probably be better off as a swing man/rotation fill-in at this point).
Rutledge came up late last season and got his feet wet, as they say, and the club, according to Davey Martinez, wants to see him get regular starts, refine his routine, and get ready for an opportunity in the majors.
Don’t sleep on Cade Cavalli either (25, 2020 1st round pick), who was set to start the season in the big league rotation before he tore his UCL last spring and rehabbed throughout 2023.
He’s still building, but should be back in the mix for the Nationals later this summer, though the Nats’ brass is famously careful with pitchers recovering from Tommy John, so Cavalli will be limited, but should probably get some starts in the majors this year.
A rotation with Josiah Gray, MacKenzie Gore, Jake Irvin, Cavalli, and Rutledge going forward has real potential, and I imagine part of the organization’s plan has to be signing a high-end arm next winter to join the starters above. So I’m kind of bullish on the future of the rotation, and will patiently watch Patrick Corbin play out his contract (and eat innings, along with Williams) till the next starters up are ready.
4. With the ownership group no longer selling the team, do you see them investing in the major league team as they did in the past any time soon?
We’re going to find out next winter. They have said all along in this rebuild they would spend when the club was ready to compete again after the reboot of the organization (which was a top-to-bottom reboot, not just in the majors).
Now it’s time to supplement all the talent they gathered in trades and the draft over the last few years, and they have really improved the entire organization, at least in terms of potential for the near future.
An “ace” to go along with the starters they already have, and a high-end bat would make a lot of sense right now or next year, it seems, and they can also start locking up the young core as they did with Keibert Ruiz last year.
There is an expectation in the fan base that they are going to reenter the free agent market next winter (with some expecting it this offseason though that did not happen).
Here’s what GM Mike Rizzo said recently when asked if the money will be there when it’s time to spend again in their minds:
“We’ve always, when the time comes to really accelerate and put your foot on the pedal to go and start competing for playoff spots and competing for divisions, and then competing for world championships, I think that’s always been available to us here, and I don’t see that changing.”
Let’s hope, because the last 3-4 years have been tough for the fan base, even if they have mostly (from my reading of the chatter) been on board with the need to reboot things.
5. Is Mike Rizzo safe for all of 2024 and beyond?
I think the multi-year deals Rizzo and manager Davey Martinez signed last year were a clear sign they are staying around to see the reboot/rebuild through. I don’t see the ownership changing course now, having allowed Rizzo to reshape the entire organization over the past few years (out of necessity and a need for real change/growth/improvement in all aspects). I think the ownership group buys what Rizzo is selling and barring catastrophic changes in the direction of the organization in the next year or so he’ll be allowed to carry out his plans to build a club that’s once again able to compete.
Chris McShane, site manager of Amazin’ Avenue, the SBNation site for the Mets
1. The Mets spent last year and whiffed. Kind of badly. However, they knew it and wisely sold what they could to build up the farm system a little more. Of those prospects they acquired, who excites you the most?
I was able to see several of those prospects play in person after the trade deadline, and Drew Gilbert is the one who jumped off the page to me. That’s not a knock on anyone else, but I was really impressed by his at-bats and his ability to make good, consistent contact, hitting the ball in hard, elevating it, and hitting to all fields. He’s not the only one who could make his major league debut this year, but I think he’s very likely to be major league ready whenever the Mets have a need and has a very good chance of sticking in the big leagues whenever he gets that chance.
2. The Pete Alonso situation is going to loom over the season all year. The question will likely be asked each day: is there an extension coming? So, I’ll ask you – will there be an extension in season, or will the team take the Nimmo approach and let him test free agency before bringing him back?
Steve Cohen has publicly stated that he respects Alonso’s right to test the free agent market and supports that decision. He’s also said that he’s confident the Mets will be able to retain him after that happens. If an extension ends up happening during the season, great, but I’m not sweating his free agency—or letting it get in the way of enjoying all of the home runs he’ll hit along the way.
3. Even with a scaled back payroll, there are still projections that have the Mets in the thick of the wild card race. What is the most important thing that has to happen to have the team playing into October?
Well, had the J.D. Martinez signing not happened yet, I would have said exactly that. Sure, there’s some risk there strictly because of his age, but on a one-year deal, Martinez is essentially a risk-free signing. He makes the middle of the lineup much more formidable, takes pressure off Francisco Alvarez to be the team’s second-biggest home run threat, and offsets some of the issues that would arise if neither Jeff McNeil nor Starling Marte bounce back from poor seasons in 2023.
4. The team went into 2023 with two highly regarded offensive prospects in Francisco Alvarez and Brett Baty. One played well, one….did not. Has the team lost faith in Baty’s ability? Is he still the future at third base for the team?
By all indications, the Mets are happy to give Baty another go at claiming the job at third base in the long run. Mark Vientos has worked on his defense, but he’s not likely to be good enough in the field to win that role from Baty, and Ronny Mauricio’s ACL injury will keep him out for most, if not all, of the season. The fact that the Mets didn’t bring in anyone who could be considered a real threat to win the everyday job over the offseason probably speaks to a mix of the team’s desire to be slightly less aggressive this year and having some level of confidence in Baty to find things at the plate at the major league level.
5. The starting rotation, on paper, looks a little rough to start the season, but they have an interesting prospect in Christian Scott that is close to the majors. He made some changes last year that helped him take a big step forward in his development. What would he bring to the team and when might we see him debut?
Spring training stats don’t mean much, but it was encouraging to see everyone in the rotation pitch well in Grapefruit League play. Even if Kodai Senga is back in the rotation by the middle of May, though, pitchers get hurt, and I’d imagine Scott is at least in the mix for a major league callup if there’s an opening created by an injury—or poor performance—any time after the end of April. Joey Lucchesi and José Butto might get those early calls, but it would be shocking if Scott didn’t get a shot by the middle of the summer at the latest. He seems to still be improving, and he already put up great strikeout and walk rates last year and had no problem whatsoever with pitching well after his promotion to Double-A Binghamton. We can’t just assume those numbers will automatically translate to Triple-A and major league success, but it’s nice to be able to imagine a scenario where Senga makes it back and Scott joins him as the team’s other high-strikeout starting pitcher.
You can find more about each team as the season progresses by heading to their site:
batterypower.com
fishonfirst.com
federalbaseball.com
amazinavenue.com
Thanks to all the writers that participated.