Don’t be scared of the J. O’Brien. We swear this one is different.
Jake O’Brien is someone who has been rapidly rising up draft boards and rankings, and is plainly giving some stiff competition for the other forward prospects projected to go in the first five or six selections. If you had to sell a team on him (or a fan base) it really boils down to a couple key points (please still read the rest of the article).
The Brantford Bulldogs center produced very well in the OHL this season, almost hitting the century mark with 98 points on a team with some decent prospects like Chicago Blackhawks’ Nick Lardis, but nothing like the star-studded cast some other draft-eligible skaters have supporting them. Since 2010, only 10 draft-eligible OHL skaters have managed to score more points than O’Brien did this season: Alex DeBrincat, Arthur Kaliyev, Ryan Strome, Matthew Tkachuk, Cole Perfetti, Marco Rossi, Michael Misa, Mitch Marner, Dylan Strome, and some guy named Connor McDavid. Those are the player that excelled higher than this player in terms of raw point totals.
That’s one positive. He produced. But when it comes to really diving into the nitty gritty of a prospect, age comes into question. O’Brien is on the younger side of this draft class. Not as young as Jett Luchanko was in comparison, but with a June 16 birthday, the Bulldogs centerman has way more of a runway than someone like Roger McQueen, who if he was born just a few weeks earlier, he would’ve been drafted last year.
So, lots of points and young for this class. The one other thing we can boil this player all down and deliver in a concentrated dose is that there is nothing really abhorrently wrong with his game. Other prospects you might say the skating is off, or the size is an issue, or this or that. O’Brien is a plus in a whole lot of categories. The main question is, just how much of a plus can he be?
Pre-draft rankings
No. 10 by Elite Prospects
No. 9 by TSN/Bob McKenzie
No. 7 by The Athletic/Corey Pronman
No. 10 by FC Hockey
Bio
DOB: June 16, 2007
Birthplace: Toronto, Ontario, Canada
Position: Center
Height: 6’2″
Weight: 170 lbs
Shoots: Right
Statistics
What’s there to like?
Jake O’Brien is a really fun player. He’s the sort of center you see in the CHL that no one should have any problems with. He is as well-rounded as a young center can be — essentially a perfect sphere on the ice to just lift his whole team and lead them through either difficult pressure from an oncoming attack or while down a couple goals and needing someone to quickly make the perfect read to get his team back on the board. O’Brien right now is considered just a super reliable player down the middle.
What his main strength is, though, is his playmaking. O’Brien can regularly make great offensive reads and make that play that eventually leads to high-quality chances — stripping the puck off an opponent’s stick in a prime area of the zone, or threading a pass through multiple defenders, for example. Everything he does is to give his team an advantage and it shows up on the score sheet.
The main takeaway about O’Brien’s playmaking and just general offensive game is that he does nothing that isn’t going to lead to the strongest play possible. There’s no soft chances or lazily floating the puck towards the net when O’Brien is on the ice — it’s all about getting in those nasty areas on the ice or, creating enough space so his teammates can cleanly get into that high-danger spot with limited resistance and score.
And even when it comes to his individual scoring, it’s all about highest quality possible. O’Brien scored 32 goals on just 134 shots on goal this season for the Bulldogs. While reading that 23.8 shooting percentage first makes you take a step back and be cautious if he can score at higher levels, just watching him and the chances that he does get, it’s understandable how he got there. It’s not riding some percentage wave (maybe it is a little) but that rate of success is built on getting to those high-danger areas or linking up with his teammates enough and making smart plays to keep that rate going.
Only four other draft-eligible players in the OHL managed to score over 30 goals this season. It was Porter Martone with 37 on his 190 shots, Brady Martin scoring 33 goals on 202 shots, Malcolm Spence scoring 32 goals on 222 shots, and of course Michael Misa and his historic 62 goals on just 284 shots. O’Brien clears all of them in terms of shooting percentage of course, but it is just how he approaches the game, where we could potentially spin it as he’s not just being constantly fed pucks by his teammates to score goals. He managed to hit that milestone despite being a creator and more of the connective tissue of a scoring chance, rather than just the end point.
Of course, when it comes to the modern Flyers we have to think about size and wanting some more physicality down the middle. O’Brien is not the most physical player in terms of laying guys out, but he really uses his 6-foot-2 frame to protect possession extremely well and is hyper aware of his body positioning. That is just another way he is able to get to those high-danger areas — not necessarily bullying his way down through the slot in an unprojectable way in junior hockey, but keeping defenders out of reach and being able to distribute the puck from that position.
It’s super clear to see why O’Brien is quickly rising up the draft boards and possibly on June 27, we could hear his name called higher than some other prospects we have already written about.
What’s not to like?
When it comes to O’Brien, you love to hear about all the things he can do with and without the puck at a high level. All those little details to his game and his smart hockey brain that can take him far in this sport. But the ultimate downside to his game is also the general question when it comes to a lot of prospects who aren’t the most bona fide top selections: What really is his ceiling in the NHL?
If you boil down and concentrate O’Brien’s playstyle, tools, and habits, you get a playmaking center who has consistently shown he is one of the smartest forwards in the OHL right now. But, with nothing truly popping off the page or having moments that make you sit back and fall back in love with this sport, there is a general ceiling of not being a championship team’s top center, but rather just a solid option down the middle who could certainly pop off for a couple seasons.
But it also is only a question asked when talking about these top-10 picks. If you have a player who might not have the highest ceiling but does everything as well as O’Brien, you are leaping for joy and doing backflips as you call the pick in. But with a whole lot of pressure to nail a pick earned by being a downright very bad hockey team, what’s not to like about O’Brien is maybe him topping out as a middle-six center. But even then, it’s hard to think about this player not making a future impact in the NHL. He’ll get there and do some cool things.
How would he fit in the Flyers’ system?
Probably really well! It would form an interesting one-two punch of center prospects for the Flyers. Jett Luchanko, last year’s first-round selection by Philadelphia, and O’Brien together have a similar high-floor projection to the NHL. Both of these players should make it, but like we just pointed out, the question is just if they can be the top-of-the-lineup guys.
Luchanko has all the work ethic and defensive acumen that you want from someone stable to be beneath someone who is more offensively focused like O’Brien. But, they would both share the same work ethic and drive and ability to have an elevated and mature off-puck game that should make them successful in the game for a long time. It’s not the most enticing duo of center prospects in the world, and doesn’t really have that star-level punch most fans want, but they would form a future down the middle for the Flyers that is incredibly easy for star wingers to play with. These guys can do a lot of heavy lifting for their linemates. Two thoughtful centermen.
But overall, it would be adding another high-end prospect to this pool that has lacked them for a very long time.
Can the Flyers actually get him?
If the Flyers do not win the draft lottery and are picking fourth overall, O’Brien most likely would not be the pick. It’s certainly not out of the question, but there are other forwards like Porter Martone who have a higher ceiling than the Brantford Bulldog, and even other centers like James Hagens and Anton Frondell who are projected to be selected before him and could be available in that range.
Now, say the Flyers fall into the worst possible scenario and two teams below them have suddenly leaped into the top two spots. To really hit the point home about how miserable this could be, it is the New York Islanders and New York Rangers picking first and second at the draft this year. Now, the Flyers are picking sixth overall.
There is a path where with that pick, the players you want in the position you want are now gone. If the centers Michael Misa, James Hagens, Anton Frondell, and even Caleb Desnoyers are all selected in the first five picks somehow, then the Flyers have a choice to make. And say, instead of picking Martone like they could, they really want that center. O’Brien would most likely be the next after that group and that is the (questionable) scenario that could play out. All hypothetical and probably not going to happen, but that’s it. O’Brien is projected to go in the top 10 but not in the first half of the top 10 — the weird area where the Flyers probably won’t have a pick and don’t want to use their first pick on the Bulldogs center.
What scouts are saying
“He leads the crop of smart playmaking centres who may not carry a ton of pace in their game, but simply go with the flow making great reads, adapting to pressure well, keeping pucks away from opponents and driving great possession results with their overall impact. Similar to Kindel, blocking shots isn’t necessarily his forte, but his off-puck results are great. His shot selection is one of the best available, rarely wasting his chances and not shooting pucks from places he won’t score from, and his slot pass numbers are also quite good. He’s one of the best players in the class at finding creative ways through opponents and adapting to play on the fly, I just wonder what his upside is going to be in the NHL as he is. I think there’s plenty to work with though and plenty of traits that I think should help him find a role somewhere in the middle of an NHL lineup.”
— Will Scouch, scouching.ca
“O’Brien is an extremely crafty two-way centerman with a high hockey IQ and a strong ability to read and anticipate plays. Both his offensive and defensive instincts shine throughout the course of a game, displaying his understanding of space and timing. He possesses a powerful skating stride that allows him to accelerate effectively through the neutral zone and initiate the attack. Additionally, he’s a gifted playmaker who distributes the puck with precision and intent. O’Brien threads passes through traffic and executes hard, cross-ice feeds to set up teammates in high-scoring areas.”
— Mike Kennedy, FC Hockey
O’Brien is a crafty playmaker. He reads how plays are developing in the offensive zone and has a knack for finding opportunities in the deep slot and around the net. He works the weak side flank effectively on the power play and has added more of a defensive dimension to his overall game. He produced 32G-66A for the Bulldogs in the regular season and averaged over 20 minutes of ice time. O’Brien’s skating mechanics are sound, but he needs time to add more strength to his frame, which should result in more separation in open ice and the ability to track the full 200 feet even more effectively.”
— Jason Bukala, Sportsnet
There goes O’Brien off the board and in his place on the poll is energetic Everett Silvertips winger Carter Bear. He’s an interesting one where you have to balance a brutal injury to his potential.
“He possesses quick, soft hands, legit skill, good speed and a natural shot but he also stays around it, plays with intensity, works extremely hard and goes to the net and inside ice. I’ve seen him make some impressive skill plays this season and dance goalies and defensemen, but he can also beat you with his work ethic and I like both the intentionality of his game and the way he uses his skill to play to the middle third.”
— Scott Wheeler, The Athletic