If you are drafting Saquon Barkley as the overall RB1, it would make absolute sense. However, you need to consider all the parameters before you do so. The early rounds of your fantasy drafts should not only be the core of your team, but players with safe floors. Barkley no doubt represents that, but there are red flags that you need to consider before you blindly select him with a top-three pick. As we dove into his 2025 fantasy outlook, there is an elevated risk for you to consider.
Saquon Barkley Fantasy Football Outlook: A Draft Risk in 2025?
2025 Fantasy Football Profile: Saquon Barkley
2024 In Review
Saquon Barkley finished his historic 2024 campaign as the overall PPR RB2. Barkley rushed for an NFL high 2005 rushing yards and 13 rushing touchdowns. He added 278 receiving yards on 33 catches and another two scores. Barkley’s 22.2 fantasy points per game were tops among all fantasy running backs, besting the overall RB1, Jahmyr Gibbs. From a fantasy standpoint, Barkley posted career highs in fantasy points per game and total fantasy points. He set a career high in rush attempts and rushing touchdowns. An argument can be made that Saquon had the best fantasy season of his seven-year career!
2025 Projection
FantasyPros projects Saquon Barkley to score 280 fantasy points, 1581 rushing yards on 301 attempts, and 10 rushing scores. On top of that, in his six healthy seasons, he averages 72 targets, 53 receptions, 386 receiving yards, and another two touchdown catches. So he is forecast to have over 350 touches. Here is where the conversation gets difficult, as it relates to his fantasy outlook, you have to consider the total touches Barkley endured during his historic 2024 campaign.
In a fantasy article we wrote in June, it outlined the inherent risk associated with drafting a running back coming off a high running back workload from the prior season. Since 2003, there have been nine running backs who handled over 400 touches, and all of them posted a significant performance drop the following season. The results can be found here. As we stated in the aforementioned article, this is not gospel, but you have to consider the elevated risk when forecasting Barkley’s 2025 fantasy outlook.
Saquon Barkley Fantasy Football ADP
Saquon Barkley’s best ball ranking sits as the overall RB3 with an ADP of seven. However, I myself have participated in multiple best ball drafts of late and seen him go anywhere between picks one to three. Rarely have I seen him go outside the top three. On my end, I am passing on Barkley for the most part this season, as he poses too much risk based on the historical data.
Look no further than last season, and the draft disaster that was Christian McCaffrey. He was a prime example of the elevated risk that comes with a running back coming off a heavy workload. McCaffrey finished 2023 as the overall RB1 and had a combined 417 touches throughout the regular and postseason. The effect, an RB69 finish in 2024. We prefer Bijan Robinson, who is currently going right next to Barkley in best ball drafts.
Main Photo: [Geoff Burke] – USA Today Sports
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