It was going to happen eventually, but Nick Sirianni had his first “welcome to the NFL” moment this past Sunday against the 49ers. In a first half in which Eagles thoroughly dominated, they found themselves down 7-3 at the end of the 2nd quarter. A disastrous series of events on two separate drives took away touchdown opportunities for the Eagles, and they came away with 0 points combined from those two drives. The defense was strong the majority of the game but gave up two long touchdown drives that the Eagles offense was unable to overcome. After only scoring 11 points, the Eagles find themselves 4 point underdogs and +160 money line heading into a Monday night showdown in Dallas. Dallas also has a 1-1 record after a victory in Los Angeles against the Chargers, granted with a little bit of luck from the refs. The over/under sits at a high total of 52. After going 0-4 on last weeks game, the hope is to improve this week. So, let’s get into the matchup and see where the value lies.
Analysis:
Even after a loss last week the Eagles are still ranked in the top 10 according to DVOA. They are 8th overall, with the 13th best offense, 8th best defense, and 16th on special teams. Offensively, they could not have had a more different approach from weeks 1 and 2. According to NFL Next Gen Stats, Hurts’ intended air yards was an NFL low 3.7 in week 1, and an NFL high 14.6 in week 2. Just look at his passing chart in week 1,
and compare that to week 2.
The Eagles correctly identified that the 49ers were weak in the secondary and decided to attack them deep. Despite only scoring 11 points, it would be unfair to completely criticize the game-plan based on the outcome alone. If Jalen Reagor stays in-bounds on his touchdown catch that got called back and Quez Watkins doesn’t get caught from behind on his 91-yard reception the Eagles most likely win this game and the entire conversation in Philadelphia is different. Sirianni does deserve plenty of criticism, though. It seemed like an overreaction to completely change the tune from what worked in week 1. Hurts attempted just over 26% of his throws into tight windows, which was up from 8% in week 1. In a game where the 49ers had such weak cornerbacks, the Eagles should have been better at scheming players open.
Sirianni also had multiple questionable play-calls in high leverage situations, with the most famous one being the failed Philly Special he called on 4th and goal from the 49ers 3 yard-line. That was the most devastating sequence in the game- the Eagles had a 1st and goal at the 1 and failed to score. Sirianni tried to get too cute at the 1-yard line instead of trying to play smash-mouth football. This drive ended in the failed trick play, and the 49ers subsequently went 97 yards to take the 7-3 lead at halftime. The Eagles were never able to regain the lead from there.
Looking towards their matchup against Dallas, the Eagles again face a team with a weak secondary that they should be able to exploit. Granted they have faced two good offenses, but the Cowboys have given up the 2nd most passing yards in the NFL so far and are currently the 22nd rated defense. The Chargers only scoring 17 points was not an accurate reflection of how their game against Dallas went last Sunday. The Chargers had two touchdowns and multiple big plays called back due to penalty. The Cowboys also had very fortunate whistles in other circumstances of the game as well.
So, with all this said, last Sunday was a disappointing day for the offense, but it would be an even worse indictment on the Eagles if they again struggle to put points on the board. Their team total over/under was 23.5 last week, and the prediction here was that was a good bet to take. This week they have the same team total of 23.5, and once again the value lies towards taking that over.
On the other side of the ball, as mentioned earlier the Eagles quietly find themselves with a top 10 defense. They’ve only given up 23 points and two total touchdowns through two games. How the loss of Brandon Graham will affect the defense remains to be seen, but they have an identity and they play it well. They play two safeties deep, mostly zone coverage, and rarely blitz, all while refusing to give up big plays. They use their stout defensive line to control the running game and keep everything in front of them. The main purpose of this is a bet that offenses won’t be able to dink and dunk their way down the field on a consistent basis. It has worked for the most part, but it also leads to long drives by the opposing offense such as the two 90+ yard, back-breaking drives the 49ers had last week. Those were only two touchdowns the Eagles have given up all season, but they were devastating. The first one was at the end of the first half and was a 12 play, 97-yard touchdown drive that took up 4:08 of game clock, while the second one started in the third quarter and took up almost 9 minutes of time that went 16 plays long.
This style of defense might also be risky against Dak Prescott and the Cowboys offense that is 7th in DVOA. Even in a game where Dak was phenomenal, he still didn’t quite look healthy in their opening game against the Bucs. He threw 58 times and ended up with over 400 yards and 3 touchdowns. To be clear he was still fantastic overall, but he didn’t have much zip on the ball and most of his passes were short. In week 2 he had a similar passing chart but without as much success. He wasn’t bad by any means, but he finished with only 237 passing yards and no touchdowns. Dak also doesn’t look as mobile as we are used to seeing. There were reports before the season started that after his gruesome ankle injury last year and a shoulder strain suffered during training camp that Dak won’t be 100% at all during this season, and so far that report has held true.
This isn’t to say that Dak hasn’t been effective, so if the Eagles are content giving up short completions to protect big plays, Dak is more than capable of shredding this style of defense. There is a reason why Vegas is expecting this game to be high-scoring. As mentioned earlier the game total over/under is 52, and Dallas specifically has a team total over/under of 27.5. So far, the Eagles have held both of their opponents under their team total and the guess here is that this trend ends on Monday night. The Cowboys have better offensive lines than both the 49ers and Falcons, so they should be able to hold up better than either of those teams did and pick apart the Eagles weakness in the secondary. It also should not be understated how the Eagles are going to be able to recover from the loss of Brandon Graham, both in the locker room and on the field.
The Pick:
Overall, it’s hard to accurately gauge where both of these teams are currently at. They both are 1-1, but the Cowboys have played two potential playoff teams while the Eagles played quite possibly the worst team in the NFL in week 1, and lost to a flawed and injured 49ers team in week 2. But, with all this said, the Eagles have simply been the better football team so far. The Eagles have a higher DVOA (8t)than the Cowboys (14th)and are better in most advanced statistics as well. Looking even further into last weeks games, the Cowboys lucked out having two Chargers touchdowns called back while the Eagles had one touchdown called back and another 91-yard pass that didn’t end up in a score. If any one of those 4 plays goes differently the Eagles are likely sitting at 2-0 going against an 0-2 Dallas team.
So, at risk of sounding like a homer and picking the Eagles to cover for a third straight game, the smart play is to take the Eagles +4. With that said, there is still value on the Cowboys team total. This should be a high-scoring game from both sides, with both teams having a chance to go over their team total. But, forced to pick one, the safer play is to go with the more established offense in the Cowboys. With that said, playing both of these bets is a smart way to hedge, since the assumption is it would be unlikely for the Eagles to not cover and also the Cowboys score less than 28 points. But, if the game does end up with a high total then you also have the opportunity of both bets winning.
Official Picks: Eagles +4, Cowboys team total over 27.5
Feature Photo: David Maialetti/Philadelphia Inquirer
The post Eagles Week 3 Betting Preview appeared first on Philadelphia Sports Nation.
Leave a Reply