The Philadelphia Eagles started off their 2023 season with a 10–1 record, but they had some concerning tendencies. Despite having an immensely talented roster, they often played down to their competition—one-score victories were all they could manage for a long time. Losing six of their final seven games was a surprising turn of events, but it’s not like they were playing dominant football beforehand.
Obviously, there were some serious expectations for the Eagles following their Super Bowl appearance the season prior, and they didn’t live up to them. There were many reasons for that, but two big ones were their play in the red zone and on third down. In 2022, they were dominant in these areas. Not so much in 2023.
The Eagles’ return to form in 2024 and eventual Super Bowl title featured excellent red-zone and third-down play. In order for them to see similar success in 2025, that must remain.
Eagles’ Success in the Red Zone Depleted in 2023
Starting with their touchdown rate in the red zone (RZ), the Eagles were fantastic in 2022 and 2024. In 2023, they were not. Take a look below, with data courtesy of rbsdm.com.
| Season (Includes Playoffs) | RZ Touchdown Rate For (Offense) | RZ Touchdown Rate Allowed (Defense) | Difference |
| 2022 | 68.6% (48-for-70) | 53.6% (30-for-56) | +15.0% |
| 2023 | 59.7% (37-for-62) | 65.0% (39-for-60) | -5.3% |
| 2024 | 58.0% (47-for-81) | 48.3% (28-for-58) | +9.7% |
The Eagles’ offense in the red zone was at its peak in 2022, declined substantially in 2023, and got slightly worse in 2024, ironically enough. The difference between the last two seasons is that the defense went from a liability to unstoppable under Vic Fangio, preventing touchdowns more than half the time opponents got within 20 yards of the end zone.
The defense’s ability to hold opposing offenses to three or fewer points was a huge reason why the Eagles were so good in 2024. If you’ll recall, in Week 1, the Green Bay Packers had consecutive red-zone opportunities early in the game off turnovers but were held to field goals both times.
The Eagles won by five points.
In 2025, they’ll need their defense to maintain that ability. Improvement on offense would be nice, and perhaps that’s possible under new coordinator Kevin Patullo, but the Birds will ultimately be relying on their defense.
Eagles Saw Significant Decline in Third-Down Play in 2023
There was a similar decline and subsequent rise in third-down play for the Eagles, too. Their Super Bowl seasons saw them dominate in that department, excelling on both offense and defense in expected points added per play (EPA/play). It was a different story in 2023, though—the defense was one of the league’s worst. Take a look below.
| Season (Includes Playoffs) | Third-Down EPA/Play For (Offense) | Third-Down EPA/Play Allowed (Defense) | Difference |
| 2022 | +0.19 | -0.20 | +0.39 |
| 2023 | +0.21 | +0.24 | -0.03 |
| 2024 | +0.14 | -0.15 | +0.29 |
The offense did its job in 2023—that wasn’t the problem. Evidently, a fall from one of the best third-down defenses to one of the worst did them in. A return to form in 2024 allowed the Birds to spread their wings and fly. Their thorough Super Bowl victory over the Kansas City Chiefs saw the guys in green demoralize Patrick Mahomes on third down.
One of the most devastating things for a team is to stop the opposing offense for two plays, then let it all go to waste on third down. That’s how long, grueling drives begin.
In 2025, the Eagles will want to repeat their success from 2022 and 2024. They’re still led by Fangio, added to that unit in the draft, and kept many key faces around, so it’s unlikely that a fall-off occurs. If it does, that’d be bad news.
The Eagles have many keys to success in 2025, but winning in the red zone and on third down will be crucial to forming a potential dynasty on Broad Street.
PHOTO: Stephen Lew-Imagn Images
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