This article may turn some heads, but at his current ADP, Saquon Barkley might be a fade in fantasy football. Barkley is coming off a historic 2025 season, rushing for 2005 yards and the overall RB2 finish. However, his 482 touches are a concern as we enter the fantasy draft season. Right now, Barkley goes off best-ball draft boards as the RB2, with an average ADP of three. No one will question the person who drafts Barkley, but as we say, consider what the data is telling us. Drafting Barkley in 2025 comes with elevated risk.
The Data Says Buyer Beware on Saquon Barkley in 2025
Saquon Barkley Comes With Elevated Risk
Running backs coming off a season with over 400 carries have shown a significant dip in fantasy production the following season. Barkley falls into this category as we enter the 2025 fantasy draft season. Here are the results of the heavy workload that totaled over the 400 rushing attempts threshold.
- In 2014, DeMarco Murray finished as RB1 with 436 carries; 2015 season RB15
- In 2000, Eddie George finished as RB3 with 431 carries; 2001 season RB21
- In 2005, Shaun Alexander finished as the RB1 with 430 carries; 2006 season, RB30
- In 2006, Larry Johnson finished as the RB3 with 429 carries; 2007 season, RB40
- In 2004, Corey Dillon finished as the RB7 with 410 carries; 2005 season, RB18
- In 2000, Edgerin James finished as the RB2 with 408 carries, 2001 season, RB33
- In 2012, Arian Foster finished as the RB3 with 405 carries, 2013 season, RB45
- In 2003, Jamal Lewis finished as the RB4 with 401 carries, 2004 season, RB26
Now, this is not gospel, but the data is showing us the probability, or at least an elevated risk for a significant performance dip for Barkley could be coming.
Most Recent History Also Tells Us Barkley Comes With Risk
In 2023, Christian McCaffrey was a prime example of the effect a high workload can have on a running back the following season. McCaffrey finished 2023 as the overall RB1 and had a combined 417 touches throughout the regular and postseason. McCaffrey ended up dealing with injuries before the 2024 season ever started. That led to an overall RB69 finish for McCaffrey. That was a catastrophic result for fantasy owners, myself included, who drafted him at 1.1. The concern is that history repeats itself this fantasy season, with Barkley. Needless to say, it is devastating for a fantasy owner to miss on their first-round draft pick.
Philadelphia Eagles Offensive Line Has Some Concerns Going Into The 2025 Season
As we dove more into the Eagles’ offense as a whole, it was of interest to note their offensive line ranked outside the top ten 2025 rankings. Pro Football and Sports Network ranks the Eagles’ line at 11 overall. Their offensive line was inconsistent over the last quarter of the season. They ranked in the bottom five overall during that stretch, but were top 10 in run blocking metrics.
Barkley will continue to be drafted as either the first or second fantasy running back off draft boards this season. However, after we considered the data, he will most likely be a fade for us coming off his highest fantasy total since his rookie season of 2018. We prefer Bijan Robinson, who is currently going right next to Barkley in best ball drafts.
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