Regardless of how talented your roster is, a bit of luck is needed to win the Super Bowl.
Following a 2–2 start, the 2024 Philadelphia Eagles won 16 of their final 17 games—one of the more convincing championship runs in recent memory.
But was their season largely influenced by luck? Can they replicate their Super Bowl LIX victory?
Examining Eagles’ Injuries
Every team in the NFL deals with injuries to some extent. Some are more impactful than others. Let’s quantify that.
According to Aaron Schatz’s adjusted games lost (AGL) model, the Eagles ranked 10th-best on offense and second-best on defense. In other words, they were fairly lucky—only the Baltimore Ravens had fewer total AGL.
The Eagles had Jalen Hurts’ late-season concussion to deal with, plus simultaneous early-season injuries to A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith. Dallas Goedert only played 10 games, too.
But the Birds’ top stars—and a majority of the roster, in general—remained healthy. Saquon Barkley had a generational 2,500 rushing-yard season, made possible by good health. Aside from a few games here and there, the defense was intact for the entire season.
Going from 23rd in defensive health (2023) to second (2024) is a substantial difference. Still, that deserves context.
For one, the Eagles’ defense was flat-out bad in 2023. They didn’t have the same number of stars, nor the masterful coordinator they do now.
Even still, the defense’s most important players were actually healthy, for the most part.
Haason Reddick, Josh Sweat, Brandon Graham, Jalen Carter, Jordan Davis, and Milton Williams all played 16-plus games. Darius Slay only had 12 matchups under his belt, but that’s still over 70% of the regular season.
The Eagles have to avoid mounting injuries on both sides of the ball. That much can derail any season.
However, keeping the stars healthy will be most significant. A superstar is irreplaceable—look at the Eagles’ record without Hurts and Brown. As long as those two, Barkley, Carter, and Zack Baun, are available for most of the season, the team should be fine.
That’s not asking for much, either.
Other Measurements of Luck in the NFL
In the 2024 season, you may remember that the Eagles had one of the best turnover differentials in the league. Upon revisiting, though, their plus-11 differential (26 takeaways, 15 giveaways; sixth in the NFL) could be somewhat sustainable.
That’s not going to be the case situationally, such as intercepting Patrick Mahomes twice in the Super Bowl deep in his territory, leading to 14 points. Something of that magnitude isn’t going to happen again. But the principle of having a good differential is reasonable.
As mentioned, the Eagles are talented. They weren’t ball hawks because of luck—it was skill, mostly. Offensively, Hurts and Barkley, helped by an elite offensive line, rarely turned the ball over for the same reason. Having good players is usually beneficial.
Looking at some of RBSDM.com‘s luck metrics, the Eagles weren’t egregiously high in any of them. For these, we’ll stick with regular-season totals.
On offense, the Eagles’ fumble recovery percentage ranked 11th (62.5%). That seems to be the least skill-based metric provided (and the most volatile year-to-year, subsequently).
Defensively, the Eagles were 13th (48.0%). They forced the second-most fumbles in the NFL (25), however, so that may be something to keep note of. Even with their talent, that’s probably a number that goes down.
Some of the other important metrics were conversion percentage on third down above expected and red zone touchdown efficiency. But there’s a reason why teams with elite quarterbacks (Ravens, Buffalo Bills, Kansas City Chiefs) excel here. Those are more skill-based than recovering fumbles, which is a toss-up most of the time.
The Eagles had some luck in 2024. Otherwise, they wouldn’t have won the Super Bowl.
But is their run replicable? Without catastrophic health, to some degree, yes.
PHOTO: Eagles Nation on X.
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