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A.J. Brown: Could Brown be traded after quiet debut?

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Was A.J. Brown’s season debut a mirage or a sign of things to come?

Against the Dallas Cowboys, A.J. Brown had an unusually quiet game. Brown didn’t receive a target until the final two minutes of the game. He ended the game catching that single target for eight yards. Much has been made of Brown’s performance in the national media, including the possibility of a trade, but here’s why it’s nothing to be concerned about.

nfl aj brown trade
Main Photo: Geoff Burke-Imagn Images

Brown Trade Looming?

With the Eagles becoming a run-heavy team since the acquisition of Saquon Barkley, there has been speculation that Brown could be expendable. Fox Sports host Colin Cowherd added to the speculation by predicting Brown will eventually be traded to the New England Patriots to reunite with his former coach, Mike Vrabel.

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Brown played under Vrabel at the start of his career with the Tennessee Titans. While it seems like a pairing that makes a lot of sense, Brown will not be getting traded anytime in the near future.

Salary Cap Implications

With how Brown’s contract is structured, the Eagles would have unrealistic salary cap implications. With the way Howie Roseman structures many of the Eagles’ contracts, the dead cap hit would be massive if Brown were traded. According to Spotrac, if Brown were traded, he would carry a dead cap hit of almost 90 million (!) for the rest of the season. The dead cap hit next season would be massive too, being almost 50 million. There is a 0% chance Brown will be traded with his current contract structure. The Eagles’ salary cap situation would be ruined for the next two seasons. There is no way Roseman would willingly do this and take on the dead cap hits this would entail.

On Field Ramifications

Even though the Eagles’ offense runs through Barkley, Brown is essential to the success as well. When Brown is on the field, the Eagles win 80% of their games. It gets even better, though, when Brown and Jalen Hurts are out there together.

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Simply put, the Eagles are a different team when Brown is out there. They become a much worse team when he doesn’t play. Brown missed four games in the 2024 season. The Eagles went 2-2, averaging 18 points per game. The Eagles’ passing attack clearly suffers without Brown on the field.

With the way the game went against the Cowboys, it didn’t offer much opportunity for Brown (and DeVonta Smith) to have a big day. The Cowboys sat in a soft zone coverage the whole game, not playing any man coverage.

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Brown has been dominant in years past when he is matched up against man coverage. The Cowboys seemed content, though, to eliminate the Eagles’ big plays and force them to take advantage of underneath routes and the run game. They, of course, did that successfully. This will not be something defenses will be able to consistently approach the Eagles with, as they have shown they will take advantage of it. Brown and Smith will have many more opportunities to take advantage of man coverage in the future. Both receivers and the passing game as a whole will bounce back sooner rather than later. Brown seems to think that could happen as soon as this week.

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Brown also rejects the idea that he was a decoy in Week 1. Even though he has been working back from a hamstring injury, he insists it did not impact him in the game.

Take a deep breath, Eagles fans. Brown isn’t going anywhere.

Between the salary cap and on-field ramifications, it makes no sense for the Eagles to move Brown. He had a quiet first game, but that is an outlier. He was buried in the game flow and will bounce back soon. Simply put, he is too important to the Eagles to move off of him. Brown, Smith, and the passing game will explode sooner rather than later. Brown will not be traded any time soon.

Main Photo: [Eric Hartline] – Imagn Images

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