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2024 Big East Tournament semifinals preview, analysis, odds

March 15, 2024 by VU Hoops

NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament - First Round - Albany
Photo by C. Morgan Engel/NCAA Photos via Getty Images

Expect one of the most emotionally-charged Big East Tournament semifinals from start to finish.

Then there were four.

Based on the participating teams and their attached fanbases, this might be one of the most charged up Big East Tournament semifinals since conference realignment. Friday night is always a great one for hoops during Big East Tournament week, but this year’s should be well worth the (steep) price of admission.

Here is a look at both semifinal matchups.

No. 1 UConn (29-3) vs. No. 5 St. John’s (20-12)

When: 5:30 p.m. ET

Key players for UConn: #2 Tristen Newton (6-5, 195) Sr., G; #5 Stephon Castle (6-6, 215) Fr., G; #10 Hassan Diarra (6-2, 190) Sr., G; #11 Alex Karaban (6-8, 220) So., F; #12 Cam Spencer (6-4, 205) Sr., G; #32 Donovan Clingan (7-2, 280) So., C

Key players for St. John’s: #3 Jordan Dingle (6-3, 196) Sr., G; #5 Daniss Jenkins (6-4, 180) Sr., G; #8 Chris Ledlum (6-6, 225) Sr., F; #11 Joel Soriano (6-11, 255) Sr., C

2023-24 season series: UConn swept St. John’s

  • UConn defeated St. John’s at home, 69-65, on Dec. 23
  • UConn defeated St. John’s on the road, 77-64, on Feb. 3

The third time was definitely the charm for St. John’s, who demolished Seton Hall by scoring 91 points in a 19-point victory. The Red Storm avenged getting swept by Seton Hall throughout the regular season and they hope to get another stroke of good fortune, as they prepare to play UConn after going 0-2 vs. the Huskies.

This matchup is ultimately what the Big East was hoping for. Well before the tournament played itself out, this Thursday semifinal opener was slated to be the only non-finals game to be broadcast on FOX, while the double-header closer would be on Fox Sports 1.

UConn was certainly expected to be there, but now Rick Pitino vs. Dan Hurley? St. John’s headed to its first Big East Tournament semifinals since 2000, while UConn is aims to keep marching to potentially its first Big East Tournament title since returning to the conference — the excitement will be through the roof, with both rabid fanbases in attendance. It will serve as a great starter to the night.

UConn looked shaky in the first half of its quarterfinal matchup against Xavier, before outscoring the Musketeers 53-27 in a second-half demolition to win, 87-60.

There were six different Huskies who scored in double figures, with no players scoring more than 13 points — a testament to the Huskies’ arsenal of weapons, talent and ability to deal damage in a variety of ways.

As for St. John’s, the Red Storm are heating up at the right time. St. John’s enters with a six-game winning streak, a stretch where they have scored at least 80 points in every win.

St. John’s gave UConn a scare in Connecticut amid its solid start to Big East play, which included wins in four of five games. After that, the Red Storm struggled and lost eight in a 10-game stretch.

It’ll be the first time the Huskies face the reinvigorated Johnnies, who have played at a much higher level since Pitino called out his players.

While St. John’s has been scoring at a consistent rate, it needs to lock down defensively. During the six-game winning streak, it proved it could clamp down on high-powered offenses, limiting Creighton in an 80-66 win, which helped fuel the winning streak.

Does Pitino get a marquee moment at the Garden, or do the Huskies charge into the finals?

KenPom predicts: UConn wins, 78-71, and is a 75% favorite

Vegas says: UConn is a 10-point favorite, according to DraftKings Sportsbook

My prediction: UConn over St. John’s

No. 3 Marquette (24-8) vs. No. 7 Providence (21-12)

When: 8 p.m. ET

Key players for Marquette: #1 Kam Jones (6-5, 200) Jr., G; #11 Tyler Kolek (6-3, 195) Sr., G; #13 Oso Ighodaro (6-11, 235) Sr., F, #23 David Joplin (6-8, 225) Jr., F

Key players for Providence: #0 Davonte “Ticket” Gaines (6-7, 190) Sr., G; #1 Jayden Pierre (6-2, 180) So., G; #13 Josh Oduro (6-9, 240) Sr., F; #22 Devin Carter (6-3, 195) Jr., G

2023-24 season series: 1-1 series split

  • Providence defeated Marquette at home, 72-57, on Dec. 19
  • Marquette defeated Providence at home, 91-69, on Feb. 28

Marquette fended off Villanova’s upset bid to return to the Big East Tournament semifinals in back-to-back years for the first time ever.

The Golden Eagles continue to make do without 2023 Big East Player of the Year Tyler Kolek. In that win, leading scorer Kam Jones got going after a fairly quiet first half, with 13 of his 18 points coming in the second half or in overtime. Stevie Mitchell, Chase Ross and Ben Gold provided some big-time baskets. David Joplin continued to be a solid contributor, while Oso Ighodaro was held in check for 44 of 45 minutes, scoring four points and making only one shot — a dagger with less than 20 seconds left in overtime.

Expect a bounce-back game from Ighodaro, who likely won’t be having a season-low performance twice in a row. That frontcourt match with Josh Oduro should be compelling to watch, though.

Kolek’s absence remains an x-factor, but the Golden Eagles have expressed that they’re OK on losing out Kolek for the Big East Tournament, if it means they can have him fully healthy for the NCAA Tournament and make a deep run there.

While he was ruled out for Thursday, there is still possibility for a return, but he remains day-to-day.

“At this point, he’s not been cleared to play in a game,” Marquette coach Shaka Smart said. “We know it’s soon, but we don’t know if soon is tomorrow or this week. He’s gonna play next week. Obviously, we’d love to win the Big East Tournament, but our guys are showing that we’re not lost without Tyler.”

Providence is hoping to build off its winning momentum and produce another upset. The Friars played tough defense against Creighton in the first half, which allowed them to take the lead on the second-seeded Bluejays.

When Creighton got going in the second half, Providence was able to weather the storm and battle back into the game. Big East Player of the Year Devin Carter continues to prove any naysayers wrong, delivering another solid Big East Tournament performance. Him and senior forward Josh Oduro make for a formidable one-two punch, and when a third player is able to get going — whether it’s Ticket Gaines on Wednesday or Jayden Pierre on Thursday, they’re a handful.

Providence will provide another physical, tough battle for Marquette, and there isn’t plenty of time to recover after a game that finished around midnight. If Kolek doesn’t play, that’ll be a big boost for the Friars.

Both games were fairly one-sided at each team’s house, who knows what a neutral court and the bright lights of Madison Square Garden will bring.

KenPom predicts: Marquette wins, 75-68, and is a 72% favorite

Vegas says: Marquette is a 5.5-point favorite, according to Fanduel (DraftKings line not yet available as of 2:32 a.m.)

My prediction: Providence over Marquette

Filed Under: Villanova

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