There seems to be a consensus of the top four selections in the 2025 NBA Draft. It really should be five as Tre Johnson’s shooting and scoring ability at his size are rare.
We all overthink things from time to time.
It can be a decision as small as what to eat for breakfast or as massive as what career path we choose. In any case, it’s understandable that we all occasionally suffer from paralysis by analysis.
In the Sixers’ case, they could have a colossal, franchise-altering decision to make in a couple months. The consensus opinion seems to be that their pick landing in the top four will give them a few no-brainer options. The reality is landing at pick No. 5 would also result in a no-brainer: draft Texas’ Tre Johnson.
If you haven’t been following NBA Draft coverage (where have you been?) there already seems to be a consensus on the top four picks. Duke’s Cooper Flagg will be the No. 1 pick and looks every bit like a generational talent. At this point it seems very likely that Rutgers’ Dylan Harper will deservedly go No. 2. Picks No. 3 and 4 will almost assuredly be Rutgers’ Ace Bailey and Baylor’s V.J. Edgecombe — the order might vary from mock drafter to mock drafter.
No. 5 seems to be where the debates begin. Well, they should actually start at No. 6.
Johnson is a rare shooter and scorer. In his lone season at Texas, he averaged 19.9 points and 2.7 assists per game while shooting just a tick below 40% from three on 6.8 attempts from deep per game. Let’s add a little context to that stat line.
Only 14 freshmen (including Johnson) since 1980-81 (when the three-point line was instituted) have put up at least 19.5 points and 2.5 assists while shooting at least 39.5% from three. Only six of those players were on Tournament teams.
Only two other freshmen have done that for Tournament teams while also putting up at least 6.5 threes per game — USC’s O.J. Mayo and Davidson’s Stephen Curry. What makes Johnson so rare is that he put up those numbers at 6-foot-6 with a reported 6-foot-10 wingspan. Only two other freshmen have put up those numbers listed at 6-foot-6 — Oklahoma State’s Cade Cunningham and Tennessee’s Allan Houston, a player Johnson has been compared to.
It’s even a rare skillset for the NBA. Only six players listed 6-foot-6 or taller put up that stat line this season — Nikola Jokic, Karl-Anthony Towns, Domantas Sabonis (on low volume), Kevin Durant and Kawhi Leonard. That’s obviously not to say that Johnson will stroll into the NBA and put up those numbers, but more to highlight the rarity of his ability.
One of the biggest knocks on Johnson is his playmaking. His detractors will argue that he gets tunnel vision and is a score-first player. That can be the case at times but it’s fair to point out that Johnson just turned 19 last month and still managed to average 2.7 assists to 1.8 turnovers. It’s an area he’ll need to grow if he wants to become a star-level talent at the next level, but there are plenty of college reps where he flashes as a passer.
Others might point to his defense or his frame, questioning whether he can play on the wing in the NBA. Most coaches will tell you that defense is primarily about effort. At minimum, Johnson proved to be a willing defender. He could stand to gain a little more functional strength (though he’s wiry) and he had a few head-scratching off-ball moments, but he has the traits and is far from a lost cause on that end.
For the Sixers specifically, some might have concerns about Johnson’s fit alongside Tyrese Maxey, Jared McCain and Quentin Grimes (if the team re-signs him as a restricted free agent). First of all, you don’t draft for fit. Daryl Morey even made it clear at his end-of-season presser that he’ll look to take the best player available — something he’s done consistently as the team’s lead executive. So if Johnson is the best player on the board when the Sixers pick, he’ll be the guy.
With that said Johnson would be a tremendous fit. He’s arguably the best pure shooter in the class with a high, quick and smooth release. As we know, no team — especially the Sixers — can have enough shooting. As a movement shooter alone Johnson could have excellent value. He possesses the ability to drill tough shots with defenders in his face. Plus, Johnson’s ability as a shot-creator could be a huge asset, especially if the team’s primary scoring options miss time again.
As far as his fit next to the team’s guards, Johnson’s size could allow him to play minutes at the wing. And in 2025, with the NBA more skilled than ever, having as many players that can dribble, pass and shoot as possible isn’t the worst strategy. Focus less on whether there will be enough touches and more on how much smoother possessions can look when all five players on the court have the ability to create.
There are other interesting options. Duke’s Khaman Maluach and Maryland’s Derik Queen are gifted bigs who could serve as Embiid’s backup before taking over as the team’s starting center. Duke’s Kon Knueppel is a great shooter with great size that would easily fit into the Sixers’ current roster. Illinois’ Kasparas Jakucionis is an elite playmaker with physical limitations, perhaps fitting into the boom-or-bust category.
None of those players offer more than Johnson though. He can easily start his NBA career as a movement shooter while refining the rest of his game.
Johnson officially declared for the NBA Draft on ESPN recently. In his interview with Malika Andrews, Johnson said the two players he watches the most are Devin Booker and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. If he’s anything like either of those players, the Sixers would be quite happy with their choice.
Even if not, the choice is simple if the Sixers’ pick falls to No. 5.
Don’t overthink it.