It’s still not likely that the Sixers tank, but with how dire the 2024-25 season has become, it’s worth taking a look at the current situation.
It’s been quite a season for the Philadelphia 76ers, and we’re only just coming up on the halfway mark.
The idea of tanking, or losing on purpose in an attempt to secure a better first-round draft pick, has swirled amongst Sixers’ fans and communities as the season continues off the rails. With Friday’s news of Joel Embiid being sidelined again for swelling in his knee, the conversation is rising again: should the Sixers tank and just start losing on purpose?
For Philadelphia, unfortunately, it really isn’t that easy.
Let’s put this as simply as possible. The Sixers need to end up with first-round pick one through six to keep it. If they draw seventh or later, their pick goes to the Oklahoma City Thunder as a result of the 2020 trade that sent Al Horford to OKC for Danny Green.
Chances of winning a pick between first and sixth in the first round is determined by the NBA Draft Lottery. Position in the lottery depends on how teams rank amongst the worst in the league. The worse the Sixers’ finish, the better their lottery position and the better their odds.
The odds of the Sixers simply keeping their pick are as follows (with 1 being the worst finish in the league, 2 being second-worst, etc.) assuming there are no ties in the standings:
1 or 2 – 100%
3 – 92.9%
4 – 81.0%
5 – 63.9%
6 – 45.8%
7 – 31.9%
8 – 26.2%
9 – 20.2%
10 – 13.9%
11 – 9.4%
12 – 7.1%
13 – 4.7%
14- 2.4%
As of the morning of Jan. 17, the 15-21 Sixers’ are the eighth worst team in the league, meaning they would have a 26.2% chance of keeping their pick.
For those that are more curious about their odds of each specific pick 1 through 6 based on their lottery position (again, assuming no ties), those percentages are as follows:
As of the morning of Jan. 17, for example, the eighth-worst Sixers have a 6.0% chance at the first overall pick, 6.3% for second, 6.7% for third and 7.2% for fourth.
So, with the Sixers’ season already a train wreck you can’t look away from — no matter how much you want to — why not just tank and increase their odds?
The problem for the Sixers (well, one of many problems) is the teams ahead of them (or worse than them in this case) want to secure the best pick for themselves, too. It’s not only up to the Sixers to lose, unfortunately. There are seven teams ahead of them in the lottery as it stands, some of which have been tanking for nearly 40 games already. Two teams, the Washington Wizards and the Charlotte Hornets, haven’t even hit 10 wins yet this season. Those two along with the other five teams ahead of the Sixers’ right now in the lottery are very unlikely to turn around and start winning.
Turns out, losing would only be half the battle. And none of this even touches on the psychological and mental impacts of telling players like Tyrese Maxey, “hey, we just aren’t going to try anymore”.
No matter how you slice it, the Sixers are between a rock and a hard place — not good enough to make any sort of run this season, and weren’t bad enough, early enough to completely tank.
All stats courtesy of Tankathon.com.