We should all be rooting for the Sixers to keep their top-six-protected first-round pick, but there would be one drawback if they do.
As the Sixers near the end of their injury-ravaged 2024-25 campaign, they’re locked in an epic battle with the Toronto Raptors and Brooklyn Nets for extra ping-pong balls. Every loss matters for the Sixers since they owe their 2025 first-round pick to the Oklahoma City Thunder if it falls outside of the top six.
The Sixers have the inside track for the NBA’s fifth-worst record this year, which would give them a 63.9 percent chance of keeping their pick. Where they land will have major team-building implications both from a roster-construction and salary-cap standpoint.
Each first-round pick has a preset salary based on the rookie-salary scale, although teams can offer as little as 80 percent or as much as 120 percent of that figure. Because it’s so standard for teams to offer the full 120 percent, the cap hit for first-round picks is the 120 percent figure. In other words: As soon as a team makes a pick — even before it officially signs that player — they go on the team’s books for 120 percent of their scale figure.
With that in mind, here’s a look at the scale figure for each of the top six picks this year, as well as the least (80 percent of the scale) and most (120 percent) that the Sixers could offer each one.
The TL;DR: If the Sixers keep their first-round pick this year, it will likely cost them anywhere between $8.2 million and $13.8 million. That might not sound like a lot, but every dollar could count if they’re hoping to bring back all three of Quentin Grimes, Guerschon Yabusele and Kelly Oubre Jr. this offseason.
Between Joel Embiid, Paul George, Tyrese Maxey and Jared McCain, the Sixers already have $149.1 million in guaranteed salary on their books for next season. Those four alone have the Sixers bumping up against the projected $154.6 million salary cap. The bigger concern, particularly with regard to Yabusele, is their proximity to the first apron ($195.9 million) and second apron ($207.8 million).
If the Sixers have to use the $14.1 million non-taxpayer mid-level exception to re-sign Yabusele, they’d be hard-capped at the first apron, which means they could not exceed that threshold under any circumstance for the remainder of the league year. If they added a top-six pick to their current payroll, they’d already be hovering around $160 million in salary before re-signing any of Yabusele, Grimes or Oubre (player option).
If Yabu is willing to settle for the $5.7 million taxpayer MLE, the Sixers would be hard-capped at the second apron rather than the first. Still, depending on how much Grimes fetches in free agency, it could be tough for the Sixers to keep all three of him, Yabusele and Oubre with a top-six pick onboard as well.
The Sixers always could either trade down in the draft to lower the cap hold of their incoming rookie or trade out entirely for future picks. They’ll have at least a few days to begin (legally) negotiating with Grimes, Yabusele and Oubre prior to the draft, so they should have a general ballpark in mind of how much it’ll cost to retain all three. That could help inform what moves they do or don’t make on draft night, provided that the lottery gods smile upon them in mid-May.
Yabusele is the only free agent who would be directly affected by the Sixers keeping their pick. The Sixers have full Bird rights on Grimes, so they can re-sign him to anything up to a max contract, and they have Early Bird rights on Oubre, which allows them to offer him a four-year deal worth slightly more than the non-taxpayer MLE. They’ll need to be mindful of their proximity to the aprons when negotiating contracts, as crossing either apron results in harsh team-building restrictions, but nothing technically prevents them from re-signing either player.
If the lottery does break in the Sixers’ favor, the upside of adding a top-six pick outweighs the downside of potentially losing Yabusele in free agency. Cooper Flagg would be an obvious no-brainer at No. 1, but Dylan Harper, Ace Bailey, V.J. Edgecombe or Kon Knueppel could be a valuable addition to their rotation as well, particularly if Joel Embiid never returns to his MVP-caliber form. Yabusele has been one of the only silver linings of this season, but he’s turning 30 in December and it’s still unclear exactly how he fits with the fully healthy version of this team.
Keeping their pick would result in another salary-cap obstacle for the Sixers to navigate, but that’d be a trade-off worth making, even if it results in Yabusele heading elsewhere.
Unless otherwise noted, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball Reference. All salary information via Salary Swish and salary-cap information via RealGM.
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