It looked like there was a chance for the all-important fifth slot in the lottery standings to be shrunk to a two-team race. That changed with Sunday’s results.
We must acknowledge what feels obvious but might get lost in the minds of Sixers fans rooting for the team to lose every game for the remainder of the season.
After Sunday’s win against Dallas, while it’s understandable to be frustrated given how tight the race is for the fifth slot in the lottery standings, the Mavericks are a team with plenty of their own problems. Sunday’s win should have signaled to Sixers fans that the team will pick up a win here and there against other incompetent teams just how last Sunday’s win against Utah showed the Sixers can’t out-tank everyone. After all, in a week in which the Sixers played four games, three of which were against sub-.500 teams in Atlanta, Toronto and Dallas, they went 1-3. That’s a good week for the tank.
With that said, Sunday was not a good day for the tank. Philadelphia entered Sunday two wins clear of Toronto and even with Brooklyn in the win column. It was a missed opportunity to pick up a game in the tank standings on the Nets as the Nets defeated the Hawks on Sunday night in Brooklyn. Also, Toronto picked up a game on the Sixers in the tank standings as the Raptors lost a tight one in Portland on Sunday. Had the Sixers lost in Dallas and Toronto won in Portland, Philadelphia would have been three wins clear of the Raptors and a good case could have been made the race for fifth in the lottery standings would have been down to the Nets and Sixers. But the Raptors are firmly in play for the spot after losing on Sunday with the Nets and Sixers winning.
With New Orleans still a distant fourth from this trio of teams in the next three slots and Chicago a pretty clear eighth in the lottery standings, we’ll continue to track these three Atlantic division teams for the season’s final weeks as this race may end up going all the way down to final night of the regular season. For a refresher on just how important it is for Philadelphia to finish fifth in the lottery standings, below are the chances the Sixers keep their top-six protected first-round pick rounded to the nearest full percentage point:
With a fifth-place finish: 64% chance of keeping the pick
With a sixth-place finish: 46% chance of keeping the pick
With a seventh-place finish: 32% chance of keeping the pick
That’s right, the chances the Sixers have a first-rounder in this summer’s draft are twice as high if they have the fifth-worst record in the league than the seventh-worst record. Here’s a look at the schedules for the three teams this week.
Brooklyn (23-45): 5th in lottery standings
Schedule this week: @ BOS Tues, @ IND Thurs, @ IND Sat
Philadelphia (23-44): 6th in lottery standings
Schedule this week: @ HOU Mon, @ OKC Wed, @ SA Fri, @ ATL Sun
Toronto (24-44): 7th in lottery standings
Schedule this week: @ PHX Mon, @ GSW Thurs, vs. SA Sun
It’s looking like a winless week for the Nets as Brooklyn winning any of its three road games against Boston and Indiana twice would be a pleasant surprise. The Sixers are in the midst of a six-game road trip and should lose to both Houston and Oklahoma City though games against the Spurs and Hawks could certainly wind up as wins. Toronto has a pair of games it stands a decent shot at winning against Phoenix and San Antonio this week. Consider this a good week if the Sixers’ cushion on Toronto grows and they’re no more than one win better than Brooklyn.