Philadelphia can win one game this week and still hold on to the fifth-best odds at retaining the No. 1 overall pick in the 2025 NBA Draft.
If you’re greedy, last week was only an OK week for the Sixers in the tank standings. Philly held on to the fifth-best lottery odds that it started the week with to win this year’s draft lottery. But it remained two games clear of a tie for fourth place in the lottery standings with the New Orleans Pelicans and New Orleans lost a tight one on Sunday night against Milwaukee that would have pulled Philadelphia within one game of the fourth slot had the Pelicans won.
However, there’s a reason that we qualified our opening statement with the words “if you’re greedy.” Catching New Orleans has only recently become a conversation for Sixers fans in the tank standings. For most of the tank run in the dreadful 2024-25 season, the fifth slot was always the best position the Sixers were going to achieve. That slot can be clinched this week if the Sixers lose three of their final four games. A reminder that all ties are broken via random drawings — essentially coin flips — prior to the draft lottery.
As we enter the final week of the regular season, here’s one last look at the percentages that come with each lottery slot the Sixers could finish in:
4th place in lottery standings: 81% chance of retaining its top-six protected pick. 12.5% chance of drafting first overall.
5th place in lottery standings: 64% chance of retaining its top-six protected pick. 10.5% chance of drafting first overall
6th place in lottery standings: 46% chance of retaining its top-six protected pick. 9% chance of drafting first overall
With all of that acknowledged, here’s a look at the schedules remaining for the Sixers and the two teams whose results will matter to Philly’s odds heading into next month’s lottery.
New Orleans (21-57): 4th in lottery standings
Schedule this week: @ BKN Tues, @ MIL Thurs, vs. MIA Fri, vs. OKC Sun
Philadelphia (23-55): 5th in lottery standings
Schedule this week: @ MIA Mon, @ WSH Wed, vs. ATL Fri, vs. CHI Sun
Brooklyn (25-53): 6th in lottery standings
Schedule this week: vs. NO Tues, vs. ATL Thurs, @ MIN Fri, vs. NY Sun
It’s a very interesting week when we look at the opponents for all three teams. Tuesday’s Pelicans-Nets game might offer a variety of opinions amongst Sixers fans. If Philly is to lose on Monday in South Beach, a win by the Nets on Tuesday against the Pelicans would give the Sixers a three-game cushion on Brooklyn. This would reduce the magic number to one for the Sixers to clinch the fifth slot.
However, if you’re confident enough in the Sixers to lose at least three games this week, the Pelicans are likely who you’re rooting for on Tuesday night in Brooklyn. Three losses from Philly this week coupled with at least two wins from New Orleans would force a random drawing for the fourth slot in the lottery standings. Are you an optimistic fan that always wants more and views the fourth slot as something the Sixers can still achieve? Or are you going to stick to being happy with the fifth slot which was the realistic goal during all of this?
The teams on the schedules of all three teams add another layer to the complexity of trying to predict these results. The four teams in the Eastern Conference play-in tournament are going to be Orlando, Atlanta, Chicago and Miami. The Sixers play three of those teams this week and the East’s worst team in Washington. New Orleans also has a game against the Heat while Brooklyn hosts Atlanta on Thursday. With the way the play-in tournament is set up, there’s a significant difference between finishing seventh or eighth in the conference and finishing ninth or tenth. None of these seeds are clinched as the week begins, therefore one would assume all four play-in tournament teams will have motivation to win games this week.
Then there’s playoff teams on the schedules of New Orleans and Brooklyn who might be lacking motivation this week. The Pelicans get one last crack at the Bucks on Thursday. Milwaukee is almost certain not to have home-court advantage in the opening round of the NBA Playoffs. Will the Bucks care about finishing fifth or sixth in the East knowing that they will avoid the play-in tournament in either slot?
New Orleans closes out the regular season at home against Oklahoma City. While the Thunder are going to get one week off anyway as the play-in tournament goes on in the West, one could certainly assume the final regular season game against the lowly Pelicans to be a flat spot for Oklahoma City who has been locked into the West’s top seed for a while.
Minnesota will likely be fully engaged on Friday against Brooklyn as the Timberwolves are looking to avoid the Western Conference play-in tournament this week. However, with the Knicks slated as the opponent in the Nets’ season finale and New York destined to be the No. 3 seed in the East, the Knicks will not have anything to play for in Game 82 of the regular season. God willing things don’t get down to the final regular season game for the fifth slot between the Sixers and Nets, but if you haven’t noticed by now, there’s a wide range of outcomes for the lottery combinations of these three teams. To quote the great Marc Zumoff, hang on everybody, we’re coming in for a landing.