Sixers offseason mailbag: Would you trade Paul George for Zion Williamson?

We tackle plenty of Paul George trade ideas and salary-cap questions in our latest offseason mailbag.

Now that the offseason is fully underway, trades appear to be on the mind for many of you.

Team president Daryl Morey gave no indication Sunday that the Sixers are looking to break up their Big 3. In fact, he doubled down on his confidence in that core and suggested he just needed to shuffle the supporting cast around them. Then again, this would hardly be the first time that Morey said one thing and did the exact opposite later.

On Thursday, we asked for questions about any offseason topic, and you once again came through. But first, let’s start with a trade proposal that might have permanently broken my brain.

First off, full disclosure: Avi asked this question on BlueSky the other day, and I liked it so much that I bullied him into submitting it for this mailbag. Thank you for playing along, Avi!

Let’s first break down the financials here. PG still has three years and $162.4 million left on his contract. He’s set to earn $51.7 million next season. (Ye gods.) Zion also has three years left on his contract, but he’s only earning $39.5 million next year and has $126.5 million left in total.

The big difference? George’s contract is fully guaranteed, whereas Zion has zero guaranteed money remaining on his deal. His salary for the 2025-26 campaign becomes guaranteed on July 15, and portions of his 2026-27 and 2027-28 salaries would become guaranteed if he plays at least 41 games and passes weigh-in checkpoints throughout the year. But for now, there’s an escape route in his contract if things continue to go south for him health-wise.

So, that brings us back to the original question. After waffling back and forth for days, here’s where I land: I wouldn’t do it unless the Sixers also moved on from Joel Embiid this offseason.

Let’s set aside the injury concerns for now. (Don’t worry; we’ll circle back on those.) Even without that, I’m not convinced that Zion and Embiid would be a great on-court fit together. Certain actions could be lethal with the two of them—namely 4-5 pick-and-rolls—but Zion is a career 32.7 percent shooter from deep on a whopping 0.5 attempts per game. He does not provide the floor-spacing element that you’d prefer from a 4 alongside Embiid.

Injuries are obviously the far bigger issue, though. In six NBA seasons, Zion has played in 214 of a possible 472 games. His talent is tantalizing when he’s on the floor, but he has missed at least 50 games in four of his six seasons, including the entire 2021-22 campaign.

Given the ongoing uncertainty with Embiid’s health, the last thing the Sixers need is to add another massive injury risk. It’s already become increasingly implausible to imagine Embiid making it through a full regular season and playoff run healthy. The odds of both Zion and Embiid doing so are virtually nil.

Now, if the Sixers decide to move Embiid elsewhere this season, that’s another story. They’d still be gambling on an unlikely health outcome, but at least they’d have a contractual out with Zion that they don’t with either Embiid or PG. Pairing Embiid and Zion would be a deeply unserious moonshot, though.

First, the bad news: The Brooklyn Nets might be the only team with significant cap space this summer. That makes them the obvious starting point for any team looking to dump contracts.

Now, the good news: Both Drummond ($5 million) and Gordon ($3.4 million) will be earning less than the taxpayer mid-level exception ($5.7 million) if they pick up their player options. The new CBA allows teams to use their MLEs as trade exceptions—aka, they can acquire a player via trade with their MLE and don’t have to send salary back. So, that should significantly widen the scope of options for salary dumps.

From there, it’d be a matter of finding the team that would require the least additional compensation to take on either contract. Would the Los Angeles Lakers be interested in a reunion with Drummond if they can’t find another big via trade or free agency this summer? Could the Charlotte Hornets view him as a short-term rental if they move on from Mark Williams? Would the Chicago Bulls entertain a reunion with the Big Penguin if they trade Nikola Vučević?

With that said, I wouldn’t necessarily be in a rush to salary-dump either one. I’d change my tune if the Sixers bump up against the second apron after re-signing Grimes, but they should have enough wiggle room to maintain access to their taxpayer MLE either way. My big question is whether they should use said MLE on Yabusele or if they’ll have better options elsewhere.

So, a few things here right off the bat. The Nuggets are already projected to be over the first apron next season, which means they couldn’t take back more salary than they send out in a trade. Michael Porter Jr. is earning $38.3 million next season, so they’d have to send out an additional $13.4 million in salary to take back PG. (In this hypothetical, let’s assume they dump Zeke Nnaji and Dario Saric elsewhere and turn this into a three-team deal.)

If Oubre picks up his player option ($8.4 million), flipping him and Drummond ($5.0 million) for Toppin ($14.0 million) would basically be salary-neutral, so that wouldn’t have a major effect on the Sixers’ overall cap sheet. The No. 6 pick will likely cost $8.2 million.

So, where does that leave the Sixers? MPJ, Embiid, Maxey and McCain would earn a combined $135.7 million. Add Toppin and the No. 6 pick, and the Sixers would be at roughly $158.0 million.

If the Sixers stay under the $195.9 million first apron, they’d have the $14.1 million non-taxpayer mid-level exception to offer Yabusele and/or another free agent. If they go over the first apron but stay below the $207.8 million second apron, they’d have the $5.7 million taxpayer MLE. So from here, it’d just be a matter of how much it’d cost to re-sign Grimes and how much space that leaves them under either of the aprons.

Using the non-taxpayer MLE would hard-cap the Sixers at the first apron, Because of that, I’m guessing they limit themselves to only the taxpayer MLE this summer. But as long as Grimes doesn’t get an offer north of $25 million annually, they should have more than enough room under the second apron to maintain access to the taxpayer MLE in this scenario.

A Kevin Durant trade seems like the obvious answer. He and PG are earning a roughly equivalent amount of money, and that could be a way for the Suns to replenish their depleted stock of draft picks while still feigning competitiveness. With that said, I’m not sure which team I’d hate that trade for more. (The answer might just be “yes.”)

I also can’t rule out the Zion trade framework that Avi pitched above. Or, here’s an interesting hypothetical: Which team would say no to Zion and salary filler for Embiid? Embiid has gotten much closer to his ceiling than Zion has, but he might have peaked already, whereas there’s still hope for Zion to become transcendent if he finally manages to stay healthy.

Would the Pelicans be willing to gamble on Embiid’s health, knowing they’d have no way out of his contract like they do with Zion? The Sixers would have to find a new center elsewhere, but I could see both teams at least considering a challenge trade like that.

Because so few teams project to have cap space this offseason, this could be an explosive summer when it comes to trades. Teams that fired their coaches and/or GMs largely did so because they fell short of expectations, so I’d expect most (if not all) of them to explore their options on the trade market.

I touched upon the possibility of a PG trade to Denver last week since the Nuggets were reportedly interested in him last offseason. I’d be on board with a general framework of PG for MPJ. Anyone who’s hoping to pry MPJ or another player away from the Nuggets should hope the Clippers make quick work of them in the first round.

The Kings are a virtual lock to do something reckless. Sam Amick and Anthony Slater of The Athletic reported in early March that Domantas Sabonis was “expected to seek clarity about the organization’s plan in the offseason,” and that was before they “mutually parted ways” with GM Monte McNair right after their play-in loss Wednesday night. They clearly conducted a widespread search for their next GM, as evidenced by them hiring Scott Perry roughly 12 hours later.

The Sixers shouldn’t have interest in any of Sabonis, Zach LaVine or DeMar DeRozan, but Keegan Murray would be worth taking a flier on if the Kings are having a full-on fire sale. The same goes for Malik Monk if the Sixers unexpectedly lose Grimes in free agency.

We should also expect to see Zion on the trade block this offseason, according to Shamit Dua of the In The N.O. Substack. (Shamit is plugged in with the Pelicans— he broke news of their interest in Joe Dumars well before Shams Charania did on Monday.) I’d imagine both Trey Murphy III and Herb Jones are still largely off-limits, but the Sixers should be interested in either one if they were available.

By the letter of the law, maybe. By common sense? Hell no.

As always, big thanks to everyone who asked questions this week! Enjoy the start of the playoffs this weekend, and we’ll catch you right back here next week.

Unless otherwise noted, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball Reference. All salary information via Salary Swish and salary-cap information via RealGM.

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