Sixers offseason mailbag: Draft trades, Quentin Grimes’ next contract and more

We answer questions about trade options with the No. 3 pick, Kelly Oubre Jr. and Quentin Grimes’ future and plenty more in this week’s mailbag.

All had been a little too quiet on the Sixers front lately. Luckily, Wednesday’s slopstravangaza from longtime NBA insider Jake Fischer was like manna from heaven for us.

Before Fischer hit us with his latest slop drop, we asked you for another round of Sixers offseason questions. As usual, LB readers came through like T.J. McConnell in the Finals.

So, let’s get to it!

If the Sixers offered Tyrese Maxey and the No. 3 overall pick for Ja Morant, I don’t think the Grizzlies would even let them hang up the phone. They’d loop in the league office immediately to finalize that trade before the Sixers could change their minds. Honestly, I’m not even sure if the Sixers would offer Maxey straight up for Morant, although that’s the type of challenge trade I could see Daryl Morey at least considering.

Morant is a more prolific playmaker than Maxey, but he is significantly worse as a long-range shooter. Across six NBA seasons, he has yet to shoot above 34.4 percent from deep. In what was widely considered a down season for Maxey last year, he shot 33.7 percent from downtown.

Morant has also played only 59 games across the past two seasons combined due to injuries and suspensions. In fact, he has yet to play more than 67 games in a season. The last thing the Sixers need is to build around another player who’s unreliable from an availability standpoint.

If the Sixers were shopping Maxey, I’d be looking to acquire an upgrade at a different position rather than a straight swap at point guard. Trey Murphy III and Jalen Johnson are the first two young players of that ilk to come to mind (assuming Jalen Williams isn’t available), although the Hawks wouldn’t need Maxey unless they’re also moving Trae Young in a separate deal.

As always, I need to first add the caveat here that I am by no means a Draft Guy. Harrison, Paul and others at LB would have far more informed takes about Harper’s upside relative to V.J. Edgecombe, Ace Bailey or any of the other potential options at No. 3.

With that said, I’d be reluctant to move McCain and No. 3 for Harper. The Sixers’ injury situation certainly helped McCain in this regard, but he showed rare upside for a non-lottery pick before his injury. He was one of only 10 rookies over the past decade to score 20-plus points in seven straight games, and he and Donovan Mitchell were the only ones from that group who were picked outside of the top 10.

Harper might seem like a can’t-miss sure thing, but how many times do we say that about guys going into a draft only to be completely, totally wrong? Just look at the list of No. 2 overall picks over the past 20 years! For every Kevin Durant, Ja Morant and Chet Holmgren, there’s a Marvin Bagley, James Wiseman and Hasheem Thabeet.

If Harper was a wing with two-way star upside, I might be more inclined to consider this type of trade. But given the inherent uncertainty of the draft, I’d rather just have two bites at the apple with McCain and whomever they select at No. 3 (particularly if it’s Edgecombe) rather than putting all of their eggs in the Harper basket.

There’s also this to consider: In terms of developmental timeline, Harper doesn’t make much sense with Paul George and Joel Embiid. So, if you’re looking at Harper as the potential future face of the franchise, that would also involve getting off George and Embiid at some point. I’m of the belief that the Sixers should be accumulating assets with that eventual possibility in mind, which is why I’d be more open to (slightly) trading down in this year’s draft than trading up.

With that said… the Sixers have reportedly looked into trading up. If the Spurs were willing to do No. 2 for No. 3 and the Clippers’ unprotected 2028 first-rounder, I’d at least consider it if the Sixers believe there’s that much of a gap between Harper and the next tier of prospects. Recent history just suggests that predraft evaluations of “sure thing” prospects aren’t always as accurate as they might seem.

Grimes earned himself some serious money with his post-trade-deadline breakout, but he could not have chosen a worse summer to become a free agent. Unless he gets the Sixers to agree to sign-and-trade him elsewhere, the Nets are the only team that can offer him more than the $14.1 million non-taxpayer mid-level exception at the moment. At least one agent is bracing his clients for a “free-agent recession” because this market is so bleak.

The Sixers have Grimes’ full Bird rights, so they’re allowed to offer him anything up to a max deal. But as we’ve written about before, they need to be mindful about their proximity to the aprons, as that will dictate which (if any) mid-level exception they have access to this offseason.

So, let’s work backwards to figure out the most that the Sixers are likely to offer Grimes as the starting salary of his new deal.

Assuming they stand pat with the No. 3 pick ($11.1 million), they have roughly $160.2 million already tied up between said pick, their Big Three and McCain. If Kelly Oubre Jr. ($8.4 million) and Andre Drummond ($5.0 million) pick up their respective player options, that would put the Sixers at nearly $173.6 million. Considering how much Morey has brought Justin Edwards and Adem Bona up while discussing the future this offseason, the Sixers also figure to pick up their team options on both of them ($2.0 million each), which would bring them up to nearly $177.5 million with nine players under contract.

The first apron is projected to be $195.9 million, while the second apron is projected to be $207.8 million. If they used the $14.1 million non-taxpayer MLE, they’d be hard-capped at the first apron, which would leave basically no room to re-sign Grimes. That’s a non-starter. They’re far more likely to go over the first apron but try to stay under the second apron so they can have the $5.7 million taxpayer MLE.

If they spent the full taxpayer MLE on one player, they’d be roughly $24.7 million below the second apron with five roster spots to fill. Each minimum contract for players with two or more years of experience is projected to cost roughly $2.3 million, so four min deals would add another $9.2 million to their books. That would leave about $15.5 million for Grimes’ starting salary at most.

Now, a few caveats here. First, if the Sixers do hard-cap themselves at the second apron, they’ll likely want to give themselves at least a few million dollars in wiggle room. Morey often leaves a roster spot open heading into the season, so the Sixers could save $2.3 million against the aprons for the time being by only signing 14 players to standard contracts rather than 15. This also assumes that they’re able to convince Eric Gordon to decline his $3.5 million player option. Otherwise, he’ll cost $1.2 million more than a standard minimum deal.

The TL;DR version: Whether in Philly or elsewhere, Grimes probably tops out around the value of the non-taxpayer MLE. If he’s willing to gamble on himself, he could always take his $6.3 million qualifying offer and become an unrestricted free agent in 2026 instead.

I wrote Monday on why Oubre isn’t likely to get moved ahead of the draft, but all bets are off for the rest of the offseason if he picks up his player option.

The Sixers are comically top-heavy in terms of salary structure. Embiid, George and Maxey are all earning at least $37 million next season. If Oubre picks up his $8.4 million option, he’ll be their fifth-highest-paid player, trailing only the Big Three and whomever they select at No. 3. If they’re trying to trade for someone in the $10-15 million range, Oubre almost has to be collateral damage for salary-matching reasons.

Unless they’re bringing a wing back in that trade, I do think the Sixers would need to tread lightly before trading Oubre. Heading into the draft, they are perilously light on wing depth. If they select Edgecombe and re-sign Grimes, they figure to play plenty of three-guard lineups, but Edwards is their only other true wing behind George and Oubre if they don’t bring Ricky Council IV back.

So, all of that is to say… I don’t know? If the Sixers aren’t planning to pursue an eight-figure salary via trade, Oubre is probably back. But if they are aiming to land someone earning $10 million or more, he’s likely a salary-matching casualty.

This might sound like massive cope, but… I think Sixers fans in general might be a little too low on this roster after the disaster that was this past season.

Heading into last year, the Sixers were widely considered to be on the short list of legitimate championship contenders. Since then, they’ve swapped Caleb Martin for Quentin Grimes (a clear upgrade) and landed the No. 3 overall pick in this year’s draft. And McCain, who figured to be on the fringes of the rotation as a rookie, cemented himself as a legitimate rotation piece if not a potential starter.

I obviously didn’t anticipate their entire rotation going down with a never-ending assortment of injuries, but in August of last year, I wrote about why I thought they might have a better title shot in 2025-26 than they did this past season. The TL;DR version: It would take time for their new-look roster to develop chemistry, while teams like the Celtics, Timberwolves, etc., were staring down a financial cliff and might need to begin shedding pieces. (At least the latter proved to be prescient!)

Jayson Tatum and Damian Lillard’s Achilles injuries effectively remove the Celtics and Bucks from title contention next year. The Indiana Pacers, New York Knicks and Cleveland Cavaliers all figure to be right back in the mix, but on the off chance that the Sixers actually stay healthy for an extended stretch, would it really be a surprise if they were considered one of the title favorites at some point next year? (We need to mentally brace ourselves to ignore this if it does happen.)

The good news is that George has no bearing on whether the Sixers can retain Grimes since they have full Bird rights on him. The main question is whether re-signing Grimes pushes them above the second apron and leaves them without a mid-level exception to spend in free agency or as a trade exception.

That’ll do it for this week! As always, thanks to everyone for the questions, and enjoy the rest of the Finals and the ongoing slop parade!