Sixers offseason mailbag: Do they have enough for Giannis?

Giannis trade talk was on the mind of Sixers fans (and everyone else) in the wake of the Bucks’ elimination on Tuesday.

As the dust settles on the Milwaukee Bucks’ third straight first-round playoff knockout, the national media coalesced on one thing: Giannis Antetokounmpo is more at risk of leaving Milwaukee than ever. The Bucks shouldn’t even necessarily wait for him to formally request a trade, either.

With that in mind, we asked you for your top Sixers-related offseason questions yesterday. Unsurprisingly, Giannis was front of mind for many of you. So, let’s start there!

Tony Jones of The Athletic took a stab at answering this question:

Personally, I’m skeptical that the Sixers could get a deal done without including Tyrese Maxey. Jones later argued that no other team would offer Milwaukee a guaranteed top-six pick—provided that the Sixers don’t convey it to OKC this year—so they shouldn’t also have to include Maxey if they offer everything else.

Here’s the tricky thing about a Giannis trade (not just from the Sixers’ perspective): The Bucks have already traded control of every one of their first-round picks through 2030. They have zero incentive to tank if they decide to trade Giannis, but a team built around PG, McCain and Kyle Kuzma would be the definition of mediocrity. I’m guessing the Bucks will try to loop the New Orleans Pelicans into a Giannis trade—whether in a straight two-team deal or a multi-team blockbuster—since the Pelicans control their 2026 (pick swap) and 2027 first-rounders.

If the Sixers are willing to dangle Maxey and a top-six pick along with other future first-rounders, that’s at least a competitive offer. But if they’re sticking to George and McCain instead of Maxey, the OKC Thunder, Houston Rockets and San Antonio Spurs could all top that offer fairly easily. A top-six pick and McCain would be a great start to the Bucks’ rebuild, but that wouldn’t solve their lack of their own picks moving forward, and they’d be spending more than $100 million on George and Lillard through 2026-27. Yuck.

We’ll first have to see what happens to the Thunder in the playoffs this year. If they get knocked out in the Western Conference semifinals, they might be more tempted to shake things up, but a trip to the NBA Finals or a championship might compel them to stand relatively pat.

The Thunder can easily cobble together the most compelling offer of any team, although it’s unclear who they’d declare off-limits. If one of Chet Holmgren or Jalen Williams were on the table (along with some of their 15,000 future first-round picks), that’s a far more intriguing starting point than an offer built around role players such as Isaiah Hartenstein and Lu Dort.

The Thunder could throw caution to the wind and try to acquire the Greek Freak without including any of Williams, Holmgren or Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, but the bill would come due after next season. Williams and Holmgren both figure to sign max or near-max extensions this offseason that will begin in the 2026-27 season, while SGA is about to sign the richest contract in NBA history this summer. We’re already seeing how difficult it is to build around three max players under this CBA; would any team even dare to try to build around four?

The Thunder would almost have to include Hartenstein in a Giannis trade for salary-matching purposes, so they’d presumably try to keep Chet and trade J-Dub if they had to choose between the two. A Big Three of SGA, Chet and Giannis might justify however much it costs to acquire the Greek Freak, particularly if the Thunder can still maintain some semblance of depth after the deal. But I’m guessing they won’t be the team that’s most desperate to swing a trade for Giannis this offseason, which might leave them open to getting outbid

To be clear, this discussion spawned from a shitpost about the Rockets trading for Paul George if they aren’t able to get Kevin Durant this summer. It’s nothing more than a fun thought experiment—I’d be floored if it actually happened for multiple reasons—but let’s break it down anyway.

The Rockets could go one of two routes here. If they picked up their $44.9 million team option on Fred VanVleet for next season, he’d cover most of the salary match they’d need for George. Otherwise, they’d likely have to include Jalen Green ($33.3 million), as Dillon Brooks ($21.1 million) and Jabari Smith Jr. ($12.4 million) would still leave them more than $15 million short of what George will earn next season ($51.7 million).

If the Sixers re-sign Quentin Grimes this offseason, they’d presumably have zero interest in VanVleet, so the Rockets would need to find a third team to take him on. The same would likely go for Green, although other teams around the league might jump at the chance to acquire him.

The Rockets are currently projected to be $4.6 million below the first apron next season, which means they might be allowed to take back more salary in a trade than they send out. If they do, they’d be hard-capped at the first apron. They could give themselves more financial flexibility by declining their team option on VanVleet and re-signing him on a multi-year deal at a lower annual salary, though.

To be clear, this is a pure hypothetical. The Rockets have sent behind-the-scenes signals all season that if they do swing a blockbuster trade, they’re looking for someone who’s more developmentally aligned with the rest of their young core. General manager Rafael Stone recently told ESPN’s Tim MacMahon that the Rockets have “a very high bar to do a transaction that changes things.”

Would the Rockets change their minds if they strike out on the likes of Giannis and/or Kevin Durant this offseason? Don’t hold your breath.

As always, thanks to everyone for the questions this week! We’ll run it back next Wednesday when we have more carcasses of first-round playoff exits to pick over.

Unless otherwise noted, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball Reference. All salary information via Salary Swish and salary-cap information via RealGM.

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