As Quentin Grimes’ restricted free agency drags on, we receive an interesting viewpoint on the market landscape.
With most offseason business for the Philadelphia 76ers concluded, one unfinished item sticks out like a sore thumb: the restricted free agency of Quentin Grimes. After arriving in a trade deadline deal with the Dallas Mavericks last February, the 25-year-old Grimes averaged 21.9 points, 5.2 rebounds and 4.5 assists in 28 games with the Sixers. We’ve heard various reports by now, with Grimes’ camp using $25 million per year has an initial negotiating point, and later seeming to prefer a shorter-term contract with Philadelphia’s offer presumably not arriving close to that number.
Now, while there are no additional updates between Grimes’ side and the Sixers front office, we’ve received an interesting look at what other NBA executives think of the situation, courtesy of an article by Fred Katz of The Athletic. The Athletic polled 16 NBA front office members on the four remaining restricted free agents on the market (Grimes, Josh Giddey, Jonathan Kuminga and Cam Thomas). Examining their responses, we get a pretty clear picture of the range from which Daryl Morey is likely offering.
“Most people polled for the story considered Grimes within shouting range of the midlevel exception, which is worth $14.1 million in starting salary. Twelve of the 16 proposed average annual salaries between $12 million and $16.7 million. One front-office staffer who is especially high on Grimes suggested a four-year, $75 million deal, the most total money and the highest average annual value ($18.8 million) anyone in the poll mentioned.
On the other side of the spectrum was an executive who considered Grimes worth just $30 million over three years, $10 million in average annual value, the lowest number in the poll. The executive said he couldn’t properly contextualize Grimes’ scoring outburst at the end of last season, when the injured 76ers were losing intentionally in the hopes of keeping their first-round pick, because he “played on a bad team.”
We see $18.8 million per year has the high point for an annual figure, which always seemed to me to be around where we might end up in this saga. I can’t imagine the number would have been less than the midlevel exception, as surely a competitor would have been willing to make an offer if Grimes’ camp was amenable to that low a figure, despite a point raised in the article.
“Others who suggested salaries lower than the midlevel exception mentioned market conditions as to why Grimes, a strong on-ball defender and 3-point sniper even at his worst, may not receive a salary commensurate with his end-of-season numbers.
“The way the cap (environment) is now, why would you spend $20 million on Quentin Grimes when you can get (Bucks guard) Gary Trent (Jr.) for a minimum?” said one executive, who proposed a three-year, $40 million contract for Grimes. “We shouldn’t just sign young players because they’re young. … You’ve got to believe Grimes is gonna develop into your starting backcourt with (Tyrese) Maxey.”
Again, I’m not buying that idea. A reasonable guess would have Grimes landing somewhere between $15-18 million per year. But what about contract length, a fire which was stoked recently in reporting from Jake Fischer?
“One person in the poll suggested a two-year deal (for $24 million). Eleven people proposed three-year deals. The total money for those were $30 million, $36 million, $39 million, $40 million, $42 million, $45 million (two), $45.7 million (which is the exact worth of the midlevel exception), $48 million (two) and $50 million. Four people mentioned four-year contracts: One for $60 million, one for $64 million, one for $72 million and one for $75 million.
“There are not many Swiss Army knife wings out there that score it as efficiently, defend, pass or rebound like he does,” said the front-office staffer who suggested the four-year, $75 million contract. “He might not be elite at any one thing, but (he’s) very good at a lot of them.”
One executive succinctly boiled down the crux of the negotiations between Grimes and Philadelphia.
“You say to him, ‘Do you want money or do you want longevity?’” the executive said. “And if he says both, you say, ‘We can’t offer both.’”
We’ll keep reading the tea leaves as we await the final conclusion to Quentin Grimes’ restricted free agency this summer.