Joel Embiid, Tyrese Maxey, Kelly Oubre, Jr. and the Philadelphia 76ers will hit the Turnpike to tackle Jalen Brunson, OG Anunoby and the New York Knicks.
Heading into the 2023-2024 season, the Philadelphia 76ers were predicted to have a 48.5 win total. The New York Knicks were given an estimated 45.5 total wins, per FoxSports.
As it finished the Big Apple bunch torched their expectations going 50-32, stealing the No. 2 seed from Milwaukee in the waning moments of a 120-119 overtime win over the Chicago Bulls during the final game of the regular season.
The Sixers (47-35) finished just three wins shy of the Knicks’ win total, despite the 7-foot-2, sweet-shooting center missing more than half (43 games) of the season. Philly would have wrapped up the No. 2 handily with him out there a bunch more.
Now the Sixers will hop an Acela to 7th Avenue and 33rd St. to take on Villanova superstar Jalen Brunson and the Knicks.
The stage is set for Tyrese Maxey to take Manhattan!
Philadelphia mostly floundered without Embiid in the lineup this season. They went 16-27 without the reigning MVP, and couldn’t avoid a date with Jimmy Butler and the Miami Heat in the Play-In.
But thankfully for Philly fans, there was some injury variance, as Butler tweaked his knee, while Joel played hero in an unpredictably delivered 105-104 victory.
Whew. No need to worry about visiting Boston as a pair-of-socks-Christmas-gift reward for maybe beating the Chicago Bulls.
And the smack talk is already underway.
Paul Reed says he wanted to play the Knicks instead of the Celtics
“We wanted the Knicks matchup, that’s the easier team.”
(Via @RunItBackFDTV ) pic.twitter.com/JBzL4QIxKX
— NBACentral (@TheDunkCentral) April 18, 2024
The entire quote is a lot less spicy, but with $8M guaranteed coming with a first-round series win, I’d have been rooting for the Knicks over Celts just like Paul Reed.
And Draymond Green gets it.
Draymond Green agrees with Paul Reed’s recent comments regarding the Knicks being an easier matchup than the Celtics ♂️
(via @TheDunkCentral, @JDSportsTalkNY @TheVolumeSports) pic.twitter.com/2213yA83i3
— Sixerdaily (@Sixerdaily) April 19, 2024
Even if Isaiah Hartenstein doesn’t like it:
Isaiah Hartenstein is asked about Paul Reed’s comments saying the Sixers wanted the Knicks because they are an “easier matchup”:
“That’s what podcasts do, they get you comfortable and then people just say s–t. We’re focused on us – whatever comments they have, they have.” pic.twitter.com/XRQsi89XjP
— Knicks Videos (@sny_knicks) April 18, 2024
Bulletin board material all around.
Isaiah Hartenstein on how the Knicks will defend Joel Embiid in the playoffs:
“He’s going to seek fouls, so that’s the main thing. Through fouls, he’ll get his little breaks, easy free throws, so that’s the main focus is not letting him to the line and going from there.
He’s… pic.twitter.com/wDHWiVjWte
— Knicks Videos (@sny_knicks) April 18, 2024
I’m sorry is this guy — whose name we’re all still learning how to pronounce — hinting that the reigning MVP is a grifter who hunts his “little breaks?”
(Bobby De Niro impressed-with-the-moxie face).
To be fair, I-hart is good (Ringer has him 15th best center) and was huge in the one mostly healthy meeting these two teams had back in early January when NY smoked Philly at The Center.
The faction of traveling Knicks fans were in full throat for that game, and I expect an even throatier contingent for Games 2 and 3 and 5 at The Center in the postseason.
This is the Knicks’ most talented squad of the century, it’s a rabid fan base (exhibit: A: 2021 Bing Bong) and South Broad is only 1.5 hours away from NYC.
Strategy and Embiid’s health
I expect a ton of 1-5 high screen-rolls between Brunson and I-Hart, hoping to learn how far Embiid would like to venture away from the rim on that balky wheel. If Joel is not too mobile, Thibs may have to spam that play, letting Brunson choose from pull up threes, drives for layups, floaters or fouls, and of course kick outs.
How the Knicks’ spot-up shooters perform from distance will be a key factor in the series, since they don’t really have a reliable secondary half-court creator after Brunson with Julius Randle on the shelf.
Despite looking extremely limited with that troublesome knee vs. Miami, Embiid was clutch, finishing with 23 points and 15 boards, scoring or assisting on 17 fourth-quarter team points.
Joel’s not fully healthy or in peak shape, but what percent can he get to for Game 1? And if he avoids the type of setback he picked up vs. Orlando recently, can he continue to improve as the series goes on?
The Knicks have the slowest overall pace in the entire league. But you get the sense Thibs would love to change that to make Embiid run as much as possible; something he didn’t do much of vs. Miami on Wednesday.
Which team will have the best player in this series? Will it be Brunson, who’ll certainly nab some MVP runner-up votes? Or Joel, who might have won his second MVP if he stayed healthy? Because Jo’s injury situation improves quickly and the Knicks simply have no answer for the Maxey-Jo two-man game?
That’s the key question. Because there will be plenty of decade-long process bragging rights on the line here, in the first playoff meeting between these teams since 1989.
I expect Nurse to mix it up against Brunson with bigger bodies (Oubre, Jr. and Batum) like he did vs Miami, reminding them to tempt him to pull up for contested long twos without going for all the slick moves, and occasionally smaller bodies like Kyle Lowry and Cam Payne, with some trapping and maybe even full-court pressure. They’ll miss Melton here.
Now we have “The Process” vs. “The Revival?” Who processed better?
Where it started.
How it ended?
The Sixers got absolutely trashed for their Process. Some noteworthy pundits, who admittedly root for the Knicks, led the charge.
And this gem!
I’m ready to Trust The Process. The Knicks’ process. Inducing young talent to lose year after year isn’t a process, it’s negligence. #76ers
— Ric Bucher (@RicBucher) November 22, 2015
We all know the Sixers had the worst record in the NBA over a four-year span, beginning in the summer of 2013, and ending with Embiid’s first fully healthy season fall of ‘17.
That Process drew near-universal opprobrium among fans and pundits and divided local fans into passionate for and against (e.g. boomers, casuals) factions.
There was so much hate being flung around at former Sixers Prez Sam Hinkie’s drafting an injured Embiid (who we were told would never play) that Joel being Joel, carefully lying in wait, listening, taking it all in, fiercely reappropriated what had become an almost disdainful moniker as his official nickname and identity.
Joel “The Process” Embiiiiiiid!
Joel used it all as fuel, long before he ever took his first field goal.
“If that’s the Embiid that you get, I really like where we are with the opportunities on both ends to exploit that” – @BenRitholtzNBA
: https://t.co/EQgeg9wrQh pic.twitter.com/iqXow2MOQJ
— x-Knicks Film School (@KnickFilmSkool) April 18, 2024
Fact check on aisle Process
If Embiid didn’t re-break his foot summer of ‘15, if Ben Simmons didn’t break his foot in summer ‘16, all those ‘PhILlY ChOsE tO tAnK a hAlf DeCaDe’ charges must be dismissed — just like Emily Ratajkowski next time she asks for free courtside seats at MSG.
Yet somehow, the Process was seemingly regarded as the greater travesty during those years.
Despite what Knicks fan Stephen A. and Knicks “process truster” Ric Bucher thought, no team has fewer reg. season wins than the Knicks (770 wins) since the start of the 2001-2002 season.
Philly only had the worst record over a four-year span.
It’s the process vs. the… quarter-century bungle? Advantage Sixers!
But now things are different… now the Knicks have some Philly guys
Now the Knicks have President Leon Rose, who isn’t as clueless as his predecessors. He’s evened the score a bit.
The former CAA superagent (to names like Carmelo Anthony, Allen Iverson, Joel Embiid) has hosed off the miasma that’s clouded MSG since basically the Y2K scare.
But which current team President is better? Rose or Morey?
Let’s recap Rose’s Knicks tenure first.
Rose quickly hired defensive-specialist and grinder “ICE!” Tom Thibodeau as head coach.
Rose drafted Obi Toppin No. 8 overall even with Tyrese Haliburton perhaps hoping to hear his name called to NYC. Ouch. Rose would later trade Toppin for two second-round picks. Double ouch.
That same draft Rose would select Immanuel Quickley, former backcourt mate of Tyrese Maxey at Kentucky. Good move… unless he could have traded up to snag Maxey instead.
By the 2021 draft Leon “ouched” again, trading the No. 19 overall pick to Charlotte for a future pick that literally never conveyed. Triple ouch.
Rose extended preexisting Steve Mills’ guys like Julius Randle, RJ Barrett and Mitchell Robison. All evens out in the warsh?
In the 2022 draft, with names like Jalen Williams and Jaren Duren on the board, Rose traded out to accumulate a few heavily-protected picks. It’s thus far seemed as though they haven’t been valued much by the NBA. But he’s still got a couple left; though they’re certainly not worth half of what Jalen Williams would be worth on the open market. Ouch.
Then, most notably, Rose made an inconspicuous, borderline treacherous, all-out pursuit of former Mavs’ guard Jalen Brunson, securing the current superstar to a four-year, $104M deal back in summer ‘22.
Rose’s *son* Sam Rose, along with Aaron Mintz, rep JB. The Knicks even hired Brunson’s father, Rick Brunson, a former Knick, on Jun. 2, 2022 as an assistant.
Ten days later, Brunson was a Knick.
In short, the Knicks all-out, blatantly tampered and it has worked out magically.
Can’t imagine the NBA and the networks are crushed seeing their largest market emerge from a quarter-century funk though, can you?
The NBA’s top-selling team merchandise list… based on https://t.co/I0ypSvyq5i sales from the first half of the 2023-24 season! pic.twitter.com/8nWPeE37SB
— NBA (@NBA) January 30, 2024
That same 2022 summer, Rose signed Hartenstein, then later appeared to get to the one-yard line on a deal to acquire another CAA star in Donovan Mitchell, then with the Utah Jazz. But Danny Ainge finalized a deal with the Cavs instead.
Maybe that worked out. Brunson has arguably been better than Spida (certainly healthier) … the Knicks’ now have OG and retained their picks; but their current picks haul doesn’t look nearly as tantalizing as it did two years ago, so maybe Leon regrets that, TBD. I kinda think he shoulda just taken Mitchell.
Rose traded Cam Reddish plus a first to the Blazers for Josh Hart, and by summer of ‘23, extended him and spent $50M on the squad’s third Nova product, Donte Divincenzo.
Nova Knicks were intact, and have been openly recruiting Mikal Bridges too!
It was this past season Rose traded Barrett and Immanuel Quickley for Anunoby.
The Knicks are a terrifying 20-3 when OG is in their lineup this season. And it appears the London native is over the elbow injury he suffered earlier in the year, which required surgery.
I expect to see OG on basically every Sixers player who happens to have it going.
OG Anunoby anticipates guarding Joel Embiid “at some point” during the Knicks’ series against the Sixers pic.twitter.com/Ithc18sSNS
— Knicks Videos (@sny_knicks) April 18, 2024
Oh, and Rose also sent Quentin Grimes (in New York from the old Porzingis trade, in a very roundabout way) plus late picks to the Pistons for Bojan Bogdanović and former Sixer Alec Burks.
Julius Randle was less fortunate than OG. The Knicks’ second-leading scorer is out for the year after undergoing shoulder surgery earlier this month.
But had they reintroduced Randle, this late in the year, it’s not impossible they would have had some chemistry issues —the kind the Sixers have had since Joel returned, with so many unforced turnovers. Randle is a high-usage guy and doesn’t space the floor like Thibs’ current replacements. The double-edge to that sword is that it’s now easier for elite defensive teams to load up on Brunson.
The Sixers had the 5th-ranked half-court defense before Joel Embiid initially went down and were 1st in half-court defense when he returned on April 2 (albeit, not a very hard schedule).
Held Miami to an 86.3 offensive rating in the half-court last night. pic.twitter.com/VqY8h4ZDv2
— Jackson Frank (@jackfrank_jjf) April 18, 2024
All in all, Rose is a lot sharper than his predecessors. He’s no Hinkie or Morey, but he’s ten-fold better than the Colangelo-Collaborative or the Jackson-Mills years.
Because Rose also relied so heavily upon players and assets left to him from both the Phil Jackson days and Steve Mills-Scott Perry days, it’s hard to say he rebuilt this thing quickly.
But rather than “Colangeloing” all the Hinkie assets, Leon “Rosied” up all the bequeathed Jackson-Mills assets.
And, oh right, he drafted Miles “Deuce” McBride, who figures to see some significant game action in this one as well.
But if the Knicks have Rose… the Sixers have Morey. Edge: The Morey Eel.
Morey may have hit three grand slams in his Sixers’ tenure: A) drafting Tyrese Maxey, B) trading Ben Simmons — who has been injured ever since — for James Harden and C) flipping Beard to LAC for two-future firsts, a swap and your new French Huckleberry:
MVPs pic.twitter.com/P3O6M4qCt3
— DaveEarly (@DavidEarly) April 18, 2024
Perhaps nothing Morey has or can do will ever make the Sixers as good as they’d have been had they simply retained Butler once upon a time. But the fact that they finally beat Jimmy in a critical postseason match has opened a window for them.
Here’s an odd one….
Per DraftKings:
Knicks favored in game 1 by -2.5.
Sixers slight favorites (-115 vs -105) to win the series vs Knicks.
Sixers granted more than twice as favorable title odds (phi + 1900 vs NYk +4,000).
— DaveEarly (@DavidEarly) April 18, 2024
Morey landed a stud role player in Nico Batum, snagged the team’s third-best player in Kelly Oubre, Jr. for a minimum salary last offseason, landed Kyle Lowry for even less… and he hired Nick Nurse.
Oubre, Jr., Lowry and Batum have all been more reliable than the team’s second-highest paid player in Tobias Harris. So I suppose Tobi is your true X-Factor here.
I’ll take Daryl over Leon all day.
Thibs vs. Nurse
I’ve been down on Thibs in the past from his Chicago and Minny days for grinding his players too hard in the regular season, and lacking creativity on offense. He brought much of that to New York with him. This year is different. Yes, he has his team playing his brand of stalwart man-to-man defense (he’s played almost no zone this season, so we won’t expect to see Miami’s exotic matrix web here).
But he’s also been surprisingly adaptive and creative offensively. He’s ebbed and flowed with his injury situation, and he hasn’t been reluctant to play talented young dudes like McBride in big spots or get funky with I-Hart as an initiator of offense. Thibs teams always overachieve and snagging the No. 2 seed is another feather in his cap.
He’s a great foundation builder for a team and sets the tone.
But… I’m going to give the edge here to Nick Nurse.
Nurse completely changed the Sixers’ offensive identity. Under Doc Rivers you knew that each play you were going to get an Embiid iso at the nail, or a James Harden-Embiid pick-and-roll.
And they were so talented they nearly beat Boston with it. But in Game 6, Boston saw it all coming a mile away and the shots didn’t drop. Nurse adapts week to week, game to game, half to half, and quarter by quarter, and his team is highly unpredictable in how it will attack, who will hurt you on a given night, and unlike the Harden days, they’re always moving around.
At the half, he sussed out the Heat’s zone in the Play-In, and after intermission the Sixers dissected it like a 9th-grade biology specimen. Outcoaching Spo?! Unheard of.
If Embiid is healthy enough to allow Nurse to turn this series into a 4-D chess match of tactics, I think he’ll out coach Thibs — who can still be a little stuck in his ways and less likely to change on the fly.
Owner vs. Owner
No debate here.
There is one big thing fans can bond over: ownership being way too involved in the past, perhaps learning from their mistakes, and handing over basketball operations to a skilled individual. Insert Spiderman meme, PHI-NYK fans worrying about ownership meddling.
The Sixers had arguably one of the league’s worst front offices between the tail-end of the ‘15-16 season (when Bryan Colangelo took over) through the start of the ‘20-’21 season, (when team ownership essentially ran the show without an experienced GM).
Philly Managing Partner Josh Harris was the one who was on the horn plucking Jimmy Butler away from a cloying Tom Thibodeau, then doing all he could to keep Jimmy in Minny. But then the Sixers’ owner let their perennial playoff superstar get away. That and other moves during those years may well have closed the team’s best path to a title in the Embiid era. It could literally already be too late. But look, Harris hired Hinkie who drafted Embiid and let Sam do this thing, and by 2020 he hired Daryl, and (aside from the occasional foisting Doc Rivers onto him, or suggesting they duck the luxury tax again) I think he’s mostly let Daryl cook; especially this season with Morey’s own hand-picked coach. There are no more Isaiah Joe waiving flubs.
And I’m not going to bother writing the Encyclopedia series of Knicks’ owner James Dolan’s bunglings over the years. Jimmy Blues takes the cake. Advantage Sixers.
Prediction
If they can just knock off these damn homegrown Nova Knicks, they might get Indiana next… it’s been a long journey for the Sixers, and it’s felt like a lifetime’s journey for the Knicks.
They’ll duke it out on Saturday in a best-of-seven series when the results will matter far more than any four-year or 25-year “process.”
If Embiid’s 80 percent, I’ll take Sixers in seven. I think they’d need to win two at MSG for that to happen: either Game 1 or 2, AND either Game 5 or 7. Because these Knicks are good, and I think their fans will be loud in Philly’s arena — their best team since they were children, or the best team of their lifetimes.
So I have the Knicks winning one game at The Center.
I’ll predict, if you granted me Joel being 80 percent, Sixers win Games 2, 4, 6, and 7.
Without knowing Embiid’s status, I hate to say it, but I think it’ll be Knicks in six. Because Philly needs their MVP to shine. If his knee doesn’t allow it, they’ll go down at the crib and we’ll dream of signing Paul George while somehow keeping KO, Nico and Lowry too.