Teams don’t often go fifth-worst to first, and despite some reasons to be excited about this Sixers group, I wouldn’t anticipate a season to remember.
With the initial wave of NBA free agency behind us, a strange narrative is developing within the discourse: the idea of the Philadelphia 76ers as Eastern Conference contenders. Yes, the same Philadelphia 76ers franchise that finished 24-58 last season, good for the fifth-worst record in the league. It’s true! Here’s an article on SB Nation (a terrific site!) on Tuesday, titled, “The Sixers might have accidentally stumbled back into championship contention.”
The national folks are spinning that same yarn, as well. On this recent ESPN segment covering the Sixers, Tim Legler says (4:18 mark), “The bottom line is, the talent is there and if they’re healthy, they’re going to make noise in the Eastern Conference.” Brian Windhorst later adds (5:38 mark), “With their level of talent, with Embiid, George, and Maxey…why shouldn’t this team be regarded as a contender in the Eastern Conference?”
Now, I understand the argument. The Eastern Conference is absolutely off the rails. Boston, Indiana and Milwaukee have all lost stars to achilles injuries (with the Bucks even making the decision to waive-and-stretch Damian Lillard). New York has a new coach. The pecking order in the East is basically Cleveland and then a collective shrug. Following productive offseason moves, people are pushing Orlando and Atlanta as big risers. Yes, the Hawks!
So with the Sixers penciling in an All-Star, an All-NBA player and an MVP in their starting lineup, it’s tempting to squint and see the path forward for Philadelphia next spring. After all, just 12 months ago, we were all basically saying the Sixers were just a tier below Boston in the East with essentially the same roster.
But let’s pause and really think through things. Joel Embiid only played 19 games last season, after just 39 games the year before. There’s a very real possibility that his knees are not going to consistently play NBA basketball at a high level ever again. Even an optimistic scenario for his return likely entails him taking a step back and doing less on the court in an effort to remain available for multiple games at a time. It’s extremely hard to envision Embiid carrying a team through a grueling playoff run. In a less drastic but similar vein, Paul George just turned 35 years old and has one year playing 60 or more games across the last six seasons. It’s easy to say “if healthy” with these guys, but that phrase is carrying the heaviest bucket of water imaginable.
Then, from a pure roster construction standpoint, the Sixers are still very undersized, which was a huge problem last season when they were dead-last in the league with a 47.1 rebounding percentage. They’re likely looking at a lot of three-guard lineups, and I imagine George, Kelly Oubre Jr. and Justin Edwards will soak up plenty of minutes at the four spot, with new signing Trendon Watford getting some burn off the bench. Even at his peak, I’d argue Embiid was never an exceptional rebounder, and the recent version of him without a spring in his step is a below-average one. I don’t expect him, Andre Drummond, who will be 32 years old when the season starts, or young guys like Adem Bona and Johni Broome to overcome the size disparity elsewhere on the court and alleviate the rebounding concerns.
Finally, the four guards (Maxey, Jared McCain, VJ Edgecombe, and Quentin Grimes whenever his agents realize literally no other team can pay him $25 million per year and they need to lower their asking price) will undoubtedly be the most exciting part of the team. And I love what that group could mean for the future of the franchise. But you’re talking about Grimes being the elder statesman at 25 years old. Oklahoma City just won the title with an extremely young roster, but that was more the exception than the rule. Guys generally need to go through some playoff growing pains, and other than Maxey and nine games for Grimes, this group hasn’t had that experience. Plus, McCain just had a major knee surgery, and I know we’re all supposed to be optimistic about the meniscus because he had the full repair, but it’s still something reasonable to be concerned about it.
So will the Sixers be better than last year? Certainly. Nearly everything that could have gone wrong, did, and very few branches in the multiverse would see Philadelphia go through a season like last one again. Also, feel free to go ahead and be hopeful about the future of the franchise. The Sixers have a number of exciting young pieces and a decent collection of draft assets ahead. But contention this season? If the last two decades of Sixers basketball have taught me anything, I don’t see it in the cards.