When a player on an expiring contract is eligible for restricted free agency, his qualifying offer is determined in part by whether or not he met the “starter criteria” during the season – or two seasons – leading up to his free agency. As we explain in our glossary entry, a player meets the starter criteria when he achieves one of the following:
- He plays at least 2,000 minutes or starts 41 games in the season before he reaches free agency.
- He averages either 2,000 minutes or 41 starts in the two seasons prior to his restricted free agency.
If a top-14 pick coming to the end of his rookie contract fails to meet the starter criteria, the value of his qualifying offer declines. Conversely a player who was drafted at No. 10 or later or who went undrafted altogether can increase the value of his qualifying offer by meeting the starter criteria.
In many cases, an increase or decrease to a qualifying offer won’t materially affect the player’s restricted free agency, since a QO is just a one-year contract offer issued in order for the team to retain its right of first refusal. The player has the option of accepting it, but in most cases it functions as a placeholder until the RFA signs an offer sheet with a rival team or negotiates a new multiyear contract with his current team.
Warriors forward Jonathan Kuminga, for example, will likely sign a lucrative long-term deal when he reaches free agency this summer, so it won’t matter all that much if he falls short of the starter criteria and his QO drops from the standard amount of $10,240,287 to $7,976,830.
But for a player who is less likely to secure a significant payday but still a good bet to receive a qualifying offer, a difference of a few million dollars between potential QOs could have a major impact on how his free agency plays out. That difference may affect how willing a team is to put the qualifying offer on the table and how likely the player is to simply accept it.
With all that in mind, it’s worth checking in on which potential 2025 restricted free agents have actually met the starter criteria so far this season and which ones are on track to do so. The first list is a short one: Bulls guard Josh Giddey is the only player to meet the starter criteria so far.
Giddey had a huge head-start because he made 80 starts for Oklahoma City in 2023/24, meaning he just needed to make two starts this season in order to achieve an average of 41 for the past two seasons. He made his second start for the Bulls way back on October 25, which means his qualifying offer this summer will be $11,142,057 instead of dropping to $7,976,830.
None of the 10 other potential restricted free agents have met the starter criteria though. Of those players, the following three were lottery picks, with their default qualifying offers noted in parentheses:
- Jonathan Kuminga, Warriors ($10,240,287)
- Davion Mitchell, Heat ($8,741,210)
- Ziaire Williams, Nets ($8,353,153)
Kuminga has only started 10 games this season and will fall short of the starter criteria, which will bump his QO down to $7,976,830. Mitchell and Williams still have a chance to get there though — Mitchell has 28 starts under his belt, while Williams has 26. They both need to reach 41 to achieve the starter criteria, and they’ve been regular starters for their respective teams as of late. If they hang onto their starting jobs and stay healthy, they’ll surpass 41 starts.
Again, Kuminga’s free agency is unlikely to be affected by his smaller qualifying offer, since his offer will likely just serve as a placeholder and a last-resort fallback option. Maybe the Nets will be slightly less inclined to give Williams a qualifying offer if it’s worth $8.35MM instead of $7.98MM, but that’s such a small gap that it’s unlikely to affect the team’s QO decision either way. The same goes for Mitchell and the Heat.
The other seven players on expiring contracts who are eligible for restricted free agency are Cam Thomas (Nets), Santi Aldama (Grizzlies), Quentin Grimes (Sixers), Tre Mann (Hornets), Isaiah Jackson (Pacers), Day’Ron Sharpe (Nets), and Jabari Walker (Trail Blazers). Jaden Springer, Chris Duarte, and Bones Hyland were also part of this group before being waived this month.
Of those players, only Thomas has a realistic chance of meeting the starter criteria. He started 51 games last season, which means he needs to get to 31 this season. He’s at 17 and the Nets have 25 left to play. If Thomas can return from his hamstring strain relatively soon, which seems likely, he has a good shot at starting 14 games and reaching the necessary threshold. That would increase his QO from $5,993,172 to $8,741,210.
The others will remain eligible for their standard QOs, based on draft position (or their prior salary, in Walker’s case), as follows:
- Tre Mann, Hornets ($6,964,982)
- Isaiah Jackson, Pacers ($6,422,431)
- Quentin Grimes, Sixers ($6,311,825)
- Day’Ron Sharpe, Nets ($5,983,683)
- Santi Aldama, Grizzlies ($5,940,797)
- Jabari Walker, Trail Blazers ($2,524,624)