Should the Sixers play it safe in the 2025 NBA draft or swing for upside? The unknown status of Joel Embiid’s knee makes that harder to suss out.
Leading up to the 2025 NBA draft lottery, Sixers president Daryl Morey made one thing clear: If the Sixers retained their pick, he planned to use it on the best player available regardless of any potential concerns about positional fit.
In theory, Rutgers forward Ace Bailey might check both boxes for the Sixers. Sam Vecenie of The Athletic said his ceiling is “the second-best player in this class if he improves his areas of need,” although Vecenie was skeptical of him actually doing so. Still, he’s a far cleaner positional fit alongside Tyrese Maxey, Jared McCain and Quentin Grimes (if the Sixers re-sign him in restricted free agency as expected) than Baylor swingman VJ Edgecombe and Texas guard Tre Johnson.
So, should the Sixers take an upside swing on Bailey with the No. 3 overall pick despite his predraft shenanigans? Or should they prioritize a higher-floor prospect such as Edgecombe, even if his ceiling might not be quite as high as Bailey’s?
The answer to that question might depend on Joel Embiid’s health status moving forward. However, in true Sixers fashion, we’ve received exactly zero concrete updates in that regard ever since he underwent arthroscopic knee surgery in mid-April to evaluate the meniscus injury that plagued him for more than a full calendar year.
If the Sixers truly believe that Embiid will bounce back to his MVP form and can withstand the rigors of the 82-game meat-grinder of a regular season along with a deep playoff run, that should influence the type of prospect whom they prioritize at No. 3. The more polished, NBA-ready Edgecombe should hold greater appeal in that scenario, as he seemingly has fewer glaring weaknesses than Bailey. Vecenie described him as “one of the safest prospects in the draft,” albeit one with a lower ceiling than Bailey.
However, if the Sixers fear that Embiid’s knee is more cooked than a twice-baked potato, that should change how they approach the draft. They’d need to embrace more risk in their hunt for another star, even if it comes with a higher bust rate. There would be less reason for the Sixers to play it safe, as this pick could be their best chance for the next few years to find Tyrese Maxey a new long-term co-star.
Although the Sixers haven’t publicly shared any updates about Embiid, they’re undoubtedly in close communication with him and the medical team that performed his surgery to monitor how he’s recovering. In that sense, what they decide to do with the No. 3 pick could be somewhat of a tell regarding Embiid’s status moving forward. If they decided to trade down a few spots and draft Duke center Khaman Maluach, for instance, that likely wouldn’t bode well for Embiid’s outlook.
Regardless of what the Sixers do, they’ll assuredly say after the fact that they took the best player available and that was their only focus on draft night. However, any team smack dab in the midst of a win-now window has to be mindful of other factors as well.
If the Sixers intend to continue building around Embiid, it would be irresponsible not to at least consider how each prospect in that range would mesh with him and Maxey. That doesn’t have to determine whether to draft a prospect, but it should at least be under consideration. That is, unless the Sixers are planning to cut bait on Embiid at the first possible juncture.
Realistically, we’re still likely three-plus months away from gaining any clarity on the status of Embiid’s knee moving forward. One of our intrepid local media members figures to ask Morey about it on draft night, but anyone expecting a straight answer should quickly abandon all hope. The good news is that the Sixers should have a better grasp on the situation behind the scenes than the public currently does.
That’s why it’s worth paying close attention to what the Sixers do on draft night. Whom they select—and whether they stand pat at No. 3 or move around the board—could go a long way toward clarifying their actual views about their willingness to build around Embiid moving forward.