Joel Embiid’s lackluster pre-All-Star offense presents another conundrum for Sixers

The former MVP’s return did not live up to expectations. Therefore, the Sixers face another problem in a season full of them.

One of life’s greatest challenges is finding the balance. Should I socialize, or study? Should I save my money, or buy that new shirt? Should the Philadelphia 76ers share the basketball and move around the court, hoping an advantage pops up, or should they feed it to their immediate advantage, Joel Embiid, the 7-foot, 280-pound MVP center who is one of the most dominant scorers in NBA history?

In a vacuum, that sounds like an easy solution. Feed Embiid. The point of offense is to find where you trump the defense and attack it. Embiid trumps the defense 90% of the time. He’s unguardable. His 0.87 points per minute are the most in NBA history. No one has scored more during their time on the court than he has.

But, as everyone knows, he is not on the court enough. In his nine-year NBA career, Embiid has played in 450 regular season games and missed 405. His injuries have cost him at least one more MVP award, likely a chance to make it past the second round of the playoffs, and, this season, the opportunity to fit into a roster that may be the most well-suited to his talents that he’s ever had. It’s a roster that was, after struggling all season, sort of, kind of, maybe figuring out how to play an electric and winning offense.

While Embiid missed 14 games from Jan. 6 to Feb. 2 of 2025, his third extended absence of the season, the Sixers weren’t great. That was until Jan. 24, when the team beat the East-leading Cleveland Cavaliers. It was the game after an embarrassing 35-point drubbing at the hands of the Denver Nuggets. But it was a game that changed things. At least it seemed to.

The victory over Cleveland started a four-game winning streak where the team played its most exciting offensive basketball of the season. They were moving the ball, completing 30 more passes per game, getting shots closer to the rim, and Tyrese Maxey looked like a star as the primary offensive option. They produced a 120.5 offensive rating during that stretch. That would rank as the second-best offense on the season.

Most importantly, it looked fun. It looked like a contending basketball team. It motivated optimism in a fanbase that had none.

And Joel Embiid’s return to this team (who did end up losing two close games to contenders after the win streak and before Embiid’s return) only furthered that optimism.

In the 13 games he played earlier this season, Embiid looked near his dominant self, but the team also proved it could work around him and he could work around them. Remember the team’s Christmas Day win in Boston? Embiid had an efficient 27 points in 30 minutes and the rest of the roster filled in the spots he couldn’t. Maxey had 33 points and 12 assists, while veterans like Caleb Martin and Kyle Lowry looked phenomenal as role players.

So, when Embiid suited up against the Dallas Mavericks on Feb. 4 there was an expectation of a turnaround. The team was just a game away from overtaking the Chicago Bulls as the 10th seed. Embiid’s return would guarantee that spot, and make a further climb up the standings a possibility.

The Sixers scraped out a win vs a depleted, decrepit, and unfamiliar Dallas team. Embiid dropped a 29-point triple-double. The game wasn’t pretty but a win is a win is a win. Since then, it’s been less of a fairytale and more of a tragedy (or comedy, depending on how invested you still are in this team).

The team’s offense has fallen off with Embiid playing. Passes and drives are down. Points in the paint are down. The inspiring flow and feel of the offense has vanished. In its place is a cramped, bumpy, and stagnant attack. One force-feeding a player who isn’t quite living up to his reputation.

Since his return, the team has a deplorable 104.2 offensive rating with Embiid on the court.

In that stretch (since Feb. 4), that’s the worst offensive rating of the 15 players with a usage over 30%, and the second worst of the 34 players with a usage over 25% (min. 30 mins played per game). For the season, it’s not much better (see below).

NBAvisuals.com

Normally when a player of Embiid’s caliber has such a poor stat, it’s his teammates’ fault, or a poor scheme. The blame is never on the superstar. But, for this recent stretch, Embiid’s individual numbers point to him as a glaring problem.

According to Cleaning The Glass, Embiid is averaging 1.14 points per shot attempt since Feb. 4, which is in the bottom 35% of the league (and slightly worse than his season mark of 1.17, which is his lowest since his second year of action). His turnover percentage in this stretch is worse than two-thirds of the league. His EFG% is the worst it’s ever been and is worse than 85% of the league. He’s taking a smaller percentage of his shots at the rim than ever before and has his lowest field goal percentage there since his rookie season. Over the last four games, his rim field goal percentage of 55% is worse than 95% of the league.

This season, he’s scoring just 0.84 points per isolation possession, the fifth-lowest number of the 28 players averaging at least three isolation possessions per game. His 38.8% EFG in such possessions is the third-worst efficiency of that same bunch.

This team has a lot more offensive issues than Joel Embiid. Paul George has not played well. They are a bottom-10 three-point shooting team. And, for most of the season, their backup point guards had a combined age of 72.

But Embiid missing so much time and now playing below his standards has produced ugly offensive possessions. The team has forced him the ball at the expense of the free-flowing offense they adopted during their win streak.

In the clip below, Embiid gets the ball on the free-throw line. That’s his zone. It’s where he’s most comfortable and where he makes the defense agitated. Look, all five Toronto defenders collapse on him! That leaves four Sixers open, three being in prime shooting positions (Justin Edwards and Kelly Oubre Jr. in the corners, George just above the break). Instead, Embiid shoots and misses.

In a similar play against Milwaukee, Embiid is guarded only by Brook Lopez, a good defender. As he pump fakes and jabs steps at the free throw line, his teammates just look at him, with minimal movement. Embiid misses again.

Again, Embiid with the ball at the free-throw line is a fantastic place for the offense to be. But, if he’s going to lack his past efficiency, you want him to play make out of these situations. Pass to the open shooter. Give it to Maxey to reset the possession. Keep the ball moving. You’ll probably get it back.

That’s how this team was meant to work, right? When it had the best offseason in the NBA? The increased role-player talent, new teammate Paul George, and an improved Maxey were meant to attack off of Embiid’s gravity. And Embiid could save stamina by virtue of the improved roster.

For many reasons, that just has not happened.

As the team enters its final 28 games still facing the ‘tank or play-in’ conundrum that has befuddled them all season, Embiid’s pre-All-Star break play presents another.

Do you let him rest his aching body and sit him for the rest of the year? Or, as he’s supposedly as healthy as he’s been in a while, do you continue to play him and let him build chemistry with a roster set in stone for the immediate future?

To answer that you have to conclude whether this form of Embiid is who he will always be, or if it’s just a slump. If it’s the latter, you ride into next season the way you did this one, just with more health. You shut him down now, let him get any treatment he needs, and then put him in a zorb ball for the offseason.

If it’s the former, building chemistry is a must. He’s shown flashes of becoming a positive playmaker, but he needs to take it further. It would save him from injuries, and the talent on the roster is there. Maxey looks ready and the role players are capable.

Rest or chemistry? The remainder of the season should be about finding that balance.